POWER AT ANY PRICE? CEM UZAN'S POLITICAL AMBITIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000588

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL TK
SUBJECT: POWER AT ANY PRICE? CEM UZAN'S POLITICAL AMBITIONS


REF: ANKARA 2516


Classified By: Consul General David Arnett for Reasons 1.5 (b & d)



1. (C) Summary: Initial contacts with Youth Party (GP)
officials in Istanbul confirm our belief that the party is
essentially a vehicle of convenience for media tycoon Cem
Uzan's considerable political ambitions. At the same time,
GP is not resting on its laurels, but instead is moving
quickly to build up a grass-roots presence throughout
Istanbul, while Cem Uzan himself is reaching out to
mainstream Turkish politicians ) including independent
Istanbul Mayor Ali Mufit Gurtuna. Istanbul politicians
believe that GP's electoral performance in November was no
flash-in-the-pan, and that Uzan and his party are in politics
for the long haul. End Summary.


New Kid on the Block
--------------

2. (C) The November 2002 elections virtually wiped the
Istanbul political landscape clean, leaving just two parties
represented in parliament from Istanbul as elsewhere. Even
the center-right Motherland Party (ANAP),which had long
relied on Istanbul as a solid voter base, could only manage
4.6 percent here. The newly-formed Youth Party (GP),
however, despite a late slump in the polls, managed to
capture 8.3 percent of the Istanbul vote (improving on the
7.5 percent they received nationally). As the heir-apparent
of one of Turkey's wealthiest, and most unscrupulous,
family-owned conglomerates, GP chairman and media tycoon Cem
Uzan was already well known before he entered politics.
Rumors suggest that the firm began as a small construction
outfit that ballooned in size as a result of illicit dealings
and money-laundering with the Qadaffi Libyan government.
Whether these rumors are true or false, almost all Istanbul
residents we have spoken to take the Uzans' unscrupulous
reputation for granted. While the USD 3 billion fraud case
leveled by Motorola and Nokia against the Uzan family further
enhanced their notoriety, most Istanbul Turks also remember
how Uzan-owned Star Television won, and then reneged on, the
contract to broadcast the premier Turkish soccer league
games, but not before selling thousands of decoder boxes and
non-refundable subscriptions.


Local Billionaire Trying to Do Good?
--------------

3. (C) Despite his family's unsavory reputation, Cem Uzan
appears to have made a successful transition to politics. In
fact, some Istanbul contacts feel Uzan's personal wealth is a
political asset (i.e., "With more money than he knows what to
do with, (Uzan) is unlikely to fall prey to the corruption
that other politicians engage in"). Uzan also generously
funded his own political campaign. A former top Star
executive told poloff that Uzan spent USD 40 million of his
personal fortune (Note: Others have put the figure as high as
USD 100 million. End Note). Whatever the total, Uzan made a
splash during the campaign by enlisting big-name music icons
to provide "free" concerts during his rallies and reportedly
offering free Telsim mobile phones to active supporters.
Uzan also hired well-known Istanbul advertising executive Ali
Taran not merely to produce GP's advertisements, but,
according to a former Taran associate, to craft his entire
public image to appeal to a wide, untapped voter base. The
result was a finely-calibrated message combining populist
calls for lower taxes and higher spending with an
anti-Western, anti-IMF patriotic appeal to Turkish national
pride. Since the elections, Uzan continued his spending
ways, blanketing Istanbul newspapers, television and radio
with another carefully-crafted nationalistic message firmly
opposing the U.S.-led war against Iraq, clearly another
populist effort to play to the vast majority who opposed the
war. Nor did Uzan limit the campaign to his own media
channels. GP Vice Chairman Tugba Kalafatoglu told poloff on
April 10 that they paid triple the going rate for advertising
space in rival Dogan group newspapers.


Building From the Bottom Up and the Top Down
--------------

4. (C) Istanbul Youth Party (GP) Chairman Hasan Bakkal
admitted to poloff on April 9 that GP had not been ready for
early elections and had barely enough time to establish a
token skeleton infrastructure in each of Istanbul's
districts. GP had its first local party congress in February
(where Bakkal himself was elected the chairman of a 60-person
board) and has been working to develop a serious grassroots
infrastructure throughout the city. Separately, City Council
Motherland Party (ANAP) Group President Recai Delibasioglu
told poloff that 12 of ANAP's Istanbul district chairmen had
defected to GP since the elections. Bakkal's provincial
headquarters, for example, will move to new, larger office
space in the next few weeks to accommodate its growing staff.
Bakkal estimated (while freely admitting that he did not
have hard numbers) that GP has 150,000 registered volunteers
in Istanbul. He told poloff that he hopes to have GP
volunteers personally visit between 65 and 70 percent of
Istanbul households by the end of the year. On the critical
issue of finances, Bakkal claimed that GP is relying
exclusively on small donations from party members. Bakkal
expressed skepticism regarding the possibility that GP will
receive government funds (Note: According to existing Turkish
laws, based on its recent electoral performance, GP should
now be entitled to annual disbursements of government funds.
End Note).



5. (C) While building from the bottom, GP is also looking to
recruit mainstream politicians at the top. On April 9,
former State Minister and two-term True Path Party (DYP)
parliamentarian Ufuk Soylemez formally joined the Youth Party
(reftel). Meanwhile, Bakkal confirmed to poloff that GP has
also invited independent Istanbul Mayor Ali Mufit Gurtuna to
join the party. Bakkal claimed that Gurtuna is close to GP,
but admitted that he has not yet made a decision. (Note: We
had heard this from a number of other reliable sources as
well. See septel for further details. End Note). Others
have told us that they too have been approached by GP,
including former Istanbul Mayor Bedrettin Dalan, former
Ambassador and Ozal Adviser Kaya Toperi, and ANAP City
Council Group President Recai Delibasioglu. Bakkal said that
GP has been flooded with applicants, but that they are
turning away all but the "best." Delibasioglu confirmed to
poloff that the lack of viable political alternatives has
given GP the luxury to be selective.


Whither GP?
--------------

6. (C) GP is already looking forward to the upcoming April
2004 local elections, with a particular eye on the biggest
prize of all, Istanbul. Our contacts here believe that GP's
electoral success was no mere flash-in-the-pan and that Cem
Uzan is here to stay. Motivated more by personal ambition
than ideological convictions, many Istanbul politicians, like
some of their colleagues elsewhere, are already trying to
catch GP's rising star. Our contacts predict that this trend
will accelerate if the AK government is unable to manage the
formidable political and economic challenges ahead.



7. (C) What about Cem Uzan himself? Former Star executive
and Uzan associate Aydin Ozdalga assured poloff that Cem Uzan
personally is unlikely to run for local office, even for the
influential position of Istanbul mayor. His ambitions lie
much higher. As for his ideological convictions, Ozdalga and
others believe that Uzan's anti-Western, populist rhetoric is
skin-deep; were he to come to power, he would in all
likelihood adopt more moderate policies. GP Vice Chairman
Kalafatoglu made a similar argument, citing more modest,
nuanced rhetoric in recent GP advertising.



8. (C) Comment: GP has made significant inroads in Istanbul
with its nationalist bent and openly populist rhetoric, but
the party still has its work cut out for it. For those
Istanbul politicians that place political ambition above
personal ideology, joining such a party would be acceptable
if such a move seemed politically fortuitous. Consequently,
many are in a waiting mode to see how the AK government fares
in the coming months before deciding which way to jump.
Altough some believe that the GP rhetoric is based more on
political opportunism than any deep ideological conviction,
it remains to be seen whether Cem Uzan and GP will moderate
their tone in future elections or if they can eventually come
to power.



9. (C) Embassy Note: Cem Uzan and the GP appear to modify
their rhetoric according to regions. As such, their approach
in Istanbul is likely to reflect a more urbane approach, at
least at the top. Nationally, the party is uniformly more
extreme in its opportunism; our contacts to date give us no
reason to conclude that Uzan and GP will moderate their tone
or policies if they come to office.
ARNETT