AKP LAYS ISTANBUL GROUNDWORK FOR MARCH 28 LOCAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 001616

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2013
TAGS: PGOV TK
SUBJECT: AKP LAYS ISTANBUL GROUNDWORK FOR MARCH 28 LOCAL
ELECTIONS


REF: ANKARA 6447


Classified By: Acting Consul General Stuart Smith for Reasons 1.5 (b&d)





1. (sbu) Summary: Following Ruling AK Party national congress
(reftel),the Istanbul AK Party organization is gearing up
vigorously at the grassroots level for next year's March 28
municipal elections. Not content merely to rely on the
party's performance at the national level, the Istanbul AK
Party organization's grassroots outreach campaign is already
well under way. Although no decision has been made on who
will be the AK Party candidate for the Greater Istanbul
Mayoralty, it now appears likely that Prime Minister and AK
Party Chairman Tayyip Erdogan will pass over current
independent Mayor Ali Mufit Gurtuna in favor of someone
closer to him and the party. End Summary.



2. (sbu) Continuing strong support in the greater urban
sprawl for Tayyip Erdogan owing to his attention to city
services and infrastructure during his 1994-1998 tenure as
mayor; the failure of the opposition CHP to reach the man in
the street; the collapse of Cem Uzan's Genc Party's
popularity (following the exposure of financial scandals and
corruption in his family conglomerate),and the absence of
any other rising political challenges make the AK Party the
heavy favorite in the upcoming municipal elections in
Istanbul. Gurtuna's chances of being welcomed into the AK
Party have always hinged on whether the party would need his
name recognition to win the upcoming local elections and
whether he and Erdogan could overcome their mutual antipathy.
It now appears to us that, rather than coopting Mayor
Gurtuna, PM Erdogan will probably feel comfortable nominating
a lesser known candidate to challenge him.



3. (u) On October 26, AK invited 2,500 assorted artists,
athletes, journalists, civil society leaders, and ordinary
citizens as part of its grassroots outreach campaign under
the "AK Platform"-banner. PM Erdogan, Istanbul Province AK
Chairman Muezzinoglu, and other assorted party luminaries
listened to short speeches by attendees detailing their views
on, and possible solutions to, Istanbul's problems (similar
meetings have already been held in each of Istanbul's 32
sub-provinces). Much of the criticism was directed at the
notably-absent Mayor Gurtuna and several speeches called on
AK to challenge him in the upcoming elections. President of
the Artisans (Esnaflar) Chamber Suat Yalkin, for example,
publicly praised Erdogan and AK and promised to support and
endorse a mayoral candidate "close to the Prime Minister."



4. (c) AK founding member Serap Yasar told poloff privately
that there will be meetings in the coming weeks to discuss
AK's mayoral candidate with a decision expected by November

15. Yasar was dismissive of Gurtuna's chances. Istanbul
Vice Chairman (and master of ceremony at the conference)
Murat Yalcintas and another AK founding member Mukaddes
Misiroglu later told poloff that they too saw Gurtuna's
chances as slim, but "never to say never" in Turkish
politics. All agreed that the choice would ultimate come
down to Party Chairman Erdogan himself.



5. (u) Without criticizing the current mayor directly, PM
Erdogan's speech remarked on the problems still facing the
city, including uncontrolled migration and overcrowded
classrooms. Erdogan also promised to deliver public
administration reform to give the local mayors and district
mayors the authority to tackle problems locally. President
of the Independent Industrialists and Businessmen's
Association (MUSIAD) Ali Bayramoglu touched on the same
subject, saying that "only Istanbul can solve Istanbul's
problems" (Note: Bayramoglu is often mentioned as a possible
AK candidate for mayor).



6. (c) In lengthy discussions with us, Muezzinoglu,
Gaziosmanpasa sub-province chairman Subasi, and a group of
leading party activists from Eyup sub-province also laid out
the party's block-by-block structure, e.g., each polling
booth neighborhood is canvassed door-to-door by a four-member
team with a rep each from the party's women's and youth
branches joining two more senior local reps. Eyup reps added
that they start each day as if the party is at zero percent
rather than the 40%-45% level party polls indicate. Noting
that he monitors the provincial party activity through a
regularized stream of reports up from the base, Muezzinoglu
also underscored that no one is relaxing: his goal is to
reach 51% of the vote in the elections.



7. (c) Comment: Not content to rest on their laurels, the
Istanbul AK Party organization is preparing to use the same
successful electoral strategy they used last year: Party
Chairman Erdogan's charisma combined with meticulous
grassroots campaigning. Carried out by tens of thousands of
activists and volunteers, AK already has a clear jump on the
competition in local campaigning and is not relaxing its
pace. Nothing is a foregone conclusion, however. The choice
of candidates is particularly important in municipal
elections. Moreover, while Erdogan's handpicked provincial
chairman Muezzinoglu, a surgeon, is highly organized, he is
relatively untested in the political arena.
SMITH