ISTANBUL REPUBLICAN PEOPLE'S PARTY: HOPING FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 001409 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2013 TAGS: PGOV PREL TU SUBJECT: ISTANBUL REPUBLICAN PEOPLE'S PARTY: HOPING FOR ELECTORAL FAILURE? REF: A. A. ISTANBUL 1231 ¶B. B. ANKARA 4862 ¶C. C. ISTANBUL 1348 Classified By: Consul General David Arnett for Reasons 1.5 (b & d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Istanbul Republican People's Party (CHP) contacts report widespread internal discontent with CHP Chairman Baykal and the CHP's performance over the last several months. Although Baykal has successfully taken firm control of the Istanbul party organization, the party has so far been unable to put forward any candidates for Istanbul City Hall that promise to mobilize and reinforce their eroding support base. Resigned over their party's inability to increase its public support, our contacts openly admit that they expect a CHP failure at the polls in next spring's local elections to open the way for internal change within the party. Baykal Strengthens Hold on Istanbul Organization -------------- --- ¶2. (C) Istanbul has long been a major battleground within the CHP organization, and this year's Istanbul Congress was further confirmation of that fact (ref A). In the face of opposition and criticism, Baykal made a strong push to ensure that his people dominated the delegate list that Istanbul will send to the National Congress and would continue to control the Istanbul organization. Mehmet Boluk, a former Istanbul Chairman and the principal challenger to Baykal's candidate in the August 3 Congress, argued that the party is losing its base on the left and has not been sufficiently vocal in opposition. Although Boluk's challenge failed, he told poloff that "most" of the party faithful are "unhappy" with Baykal, but are keeping their opposition quiet until next spring's local elections. Once the elections are over, Boluk predicted a sea change within the party ranks. (Note: Boluk has also filed a court case alleging that Baykal illegally stacked the August 3 Istanbul Congress with supporters by falsifying local residency documents.) The Big Prize: Istanbul Mayoralty -------------- ¶3. (C) None of our CHP interlocutors expect major developments at the upcoming CHP Congress (see also ref B), with all eyes focused instead on next spring's municipal elections. Most agree that the Justice and Development (AK) Party commands significantly more local support than CHP, and that the electoral math leaves CHP with only a narrow opportunity to take the Mayoralty (note: this would require a split among potential AKP supporters between still-independent Istanbul Mayor Ali Mufit Gurtuna and an unnamed AKP candidate). Local CHP insiders Boluk and Sisli District Mayor Mustafa Sarigul were somewhat defeatist about CHP's electoral prospects and even eager to use a failure (defined as anything less than the 19 percent CHP polled nationally last year) to bring about internal change in the party. ¶4. (C) Sarigul said that although he had been approached about running for the Istanbul Mayoralty (note: he is widely considered one of CHP's best potential candidates),he has since decided that his chances of winning do not justify a decision to run. Former State Minister and Istanbul MP Kemal Dervis' name continues to be floated, but close confidante and fellow Istanbul MP Damla Gurel downplayed that likelihood. Former Foreign Minister and current New Turkey Party (YTP) Chairman Ismail Cem has also been mentioned as a possible candidate (in the unlikely event that CHP and YTP could cement a pre-election alliance),but few take that prospect seriously. Failure in 2004 = Chance for Change? -------------- ¶5. (C) Assessing CHP's performance as the country's only opposition party since last year's elections, former Istanbul Chairman Mehmet Boluk said that this must be one of the only parties in recent history to "lose public support while in opposition." Istanbul MP Damla Gurel (a newcomer to CHP who joined the party last year with former State Minister Kemal Dervis) admitted candidly to poloff that "most party members are unhappy." Professing to have good personal relations with Baykal, Gurel nevertheless criticized him for not promoting party teamwork, for failing to "follow through" on commitments, and for a total inability to "communicate" his vision and plans both within the party and to the general public. ¶6. (C) Sisli Mayor Sarigul also criticized Baykal and the CHP leadership, particularly for failing to challenge AKP by appealing directly to the voters. Rather than criticize AKP's plans for a property amnesty and sale of forest lands, for example, Sarigul argues that CHP should have embraced the proposal and taken it even further (see also ref C). We are supposed to be the social democrats, but we are doing nothing to reach out to the people who need us, Sarigul complained. (Note: Boasting of having received the largest number of votes among all of the Istanbul delegates to the National Congress, Sarigul clearly sees himself as a potential future leader of the party). ¶7. (C) Former CHP Chairman Altan Oymen (who was defeated by Baykal when he returned to the party chairmanship in 2001) was more supportive of Baykal and his performance, but conceded that CHP had failed to increase its support among the general public. Oymen attributed this to the party's failure to bring together the other left and center-left parties, many of which are dominated by former CHP members. Gurel, Sarigul, and Oymen all agreed that anything less than 19 percent of the vote in the upcoming elections would trigger an internal movement for change within the party. Asked how such change would materialize in a party that is tightly controlled by the chairman, Sarigul and Oymen separately explained that an electoral failure would prompt discussions and debate in the party ranks and would embolden other power brokers to push for change (perhaps Baykal himself would resign, Oymen added). ARNETT