TSVANGIRAI WELCOMES MULUZI INITIATIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000768

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LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR CNEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SADC
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI WELCOMES MULUZI INITIATIVE

REF: A) HARARE 767 B) STATE 98702 C) PRETORIA 2012

Classified By: political section chief Matt Harrington. Reasons: 1.5 (
B) and (D).


1. Summary: In an April 17 conversation with the Ambassador,
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai
welcomed the initiative by President Muluzi to encourage
political dialogue in Zimbabwe and expressed hope that it
might help forestall further mass action -- and its
unpredictable consequences -- planned by the MDC. He said
Muluzi should facilitate talks between ZANU-PF and the MDC
while leaving substantive details of potential agreements to
the two parties. The MDC leader enouraged the USG to make it
clear to the Zimbabwean armed forces that we would not accept
military intervention in favor of any one political party.
The Ambassador once again expressed concern about reports
that individuals are planning violence and claiming senior
MDC endorsement of their activities. Tsvangirai promised to
make clear the MDC's opposition to violence internally and to
consider issuing a statement condemning violence as a means
of achieving political change and anyone advocating such an
approach in the name of the MDC. End Summary.


2. (C) The Ambassador met on April 17 to deliver points in
reftel B to Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) President
Morgan Tsvangirai. He emphasized that the USG sees the
upcoming April 24 visit by Presidents Muluzi and Mbeki as a
potentially constructive development that could lead to an
interim coalition government. He stressed our view that any
agreement resulting from this initiative should provide for
President Mugabe's departure; restore the rule of law;
provide a legitimate role for the MDC and prevent domination
by ZANU-PF in an interim government; and pave the way for
new, free and fair elections. The Ambassador indicated that
we were prepared to be helpful in this effort, by offering
incentives or maintaining international pressure. He asked
whether Tsvangirai agreed that an interim coalition would
represent a useful way forward. Tsvangirai confirmed that
our conditions reflected MDC views on how a transition might
proceed.

Muluzi involvement "positive"
--------------


3. (C) Tsvangirai said the Malawian High Commission in
Harare had been in touch with him to arrange a meeting with
President Muluzi. He was not aware of President Mbeki's
plans to attend, but said Mbeki's participation would be
welcome. (Note: We later confirmed that the South African
High Commissioner here is aware of Mbeki's planned
participation and will head to South Africa on April 18 to
consult on the visit. End Note.) Tsvangirai described the
Muluzi initiative as a positive development which could help
avoid looming confrontation in Zimbabwe, and said it was
consistent with the three-phased solution long advocated by
the MDC. First, Mugabe's departure was a necessary first
step which would reduce tensions between the parties and
increase the chances for a serious negotiation. Second, an
interim period was essential, during which time a number of
confidence-building measures would be implemented, laying the
groundwork for an environment conducive to a free and fair
election. The last phase would be a new election held under
international supervision.


4. (C) The Ambassador noted that Muluzi had told us he had
some concerns about the MDC's receptiveness to his
engagement. If Tsvangirai considered Muluzi's involvement
positive, it was important for him to encourage the Malawian
president in his efforts. Tsvangirai said he had done so via
the Malawian High Commission. Mugabe, he reported, was
trying to "throw a spanner" into the Muluzi visit, dictating
when and where the SADC heads of state could meet with
Tsvangirai. Tsvangirai underscored that they preferred

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Muluzi to be a "facilitator" rather than a "negotiator,"
finding a way to engage the two sides in direct talks but not
focusing on substance. Any substantive details regarding the
way forward should be addressed by the two parties during the
dialogue.

MDC negotiating position getting stronger
--------------


5. (C) Tsvangirai said he hoped Muluzi could convince
ZANU-PF to engage in serious talks, as he preferred the route
of dialogue to a sustained nationwide mass action whose
outcome was unpredictable. He noted that the longer ZANU-PF
continues its repression and the longer the economic decline
continued, reconciliation would become increasingly hard to
achieve. ZANU-PF's negotiating position was weakening by the
day, he said, while the MDC's was getting stronger. The
Ambassador cautioned against allowing overconfidence to
preclude a willingness to talk to the other side, and
Tsvangirai agreed. Asked how the U.S. could be helpful,

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Tsvangirai replied that, although there was no need for a

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USG-led Baghdad-like intervention in Zimbabwe, after Iraq the
USG was now better placed to exert pressure on the regime in
Harare. The MDC leader urged the Ambassador to make it clear
to Zimbabwe Defense Forces Chief General Zvinavashe that the
United States would consider unacceptable any military
intervention in support of any one political party. The
Ambassador agreed to look for ways to make that point.


6. (C) We briefed Tsvangirai on ZANU-PF spokesman Nathan
Shamuyarira's remarks to us regarding Mugabe's willingness to
retire (ref A). Tsvangirai found it interesting that Mugabe
may be prepared to leave office early, although the MDC finds
an interim transitional arrangement more appealing than an
immediate election.

MDC Violence
--------------


7. (C) The Ambassador revealed that we continue to hear
reports of MDC-associated individuals planning violence,
claiming party endorsement for their activities, and said the
USG might be forced to distance itself from the party if such
activities occurred. The Government of Zimbabwe believes it
has firm evidence of the opposition party's instigation of
some of the violence during the mid-March stayaway. The
Ambassador added that four people had approached our embassy
in Pretoria on April 16 (ref B) claiming they had
authorization from the highest levels of the MDC to carry out
violent attacks, and he provided Tsvangirai with their names.
Tsvangirai looked at their names, appeared not to recognize
them, and undertook to look into their allegations and get
back to us with a response. Tsvangirai stated that he is
planning to make remarks at an upcoming celebration of the
party's recent parliamentary by-election victories strongly
criticizing anyone advocating violence in the MDC's name.
Encouraged by the Ambassador to issue a public statement with
the same message, Tsvangirai agreed to consider this.


SULLIVAN