OPPOSITION SCORES WELL IN ZIMBABWE ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001731 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER LONDON FOR C. GURNEY PARIS FOR C. NEARY NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2013 TAGS: PGOV PHUM SOCI ZI SUBJECT: OPPOSITION SCORES WELL IN ZIMBABWE ELECTIONS MARKED BY LESS INTIMIDATION REF: (A) HARARE 1717 (B) HARARE 1711 (C) HARARE 636 (D) 2002 HARARE 2354 Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d ¶1. SUMMARY. (C) The MDC retained its parliamentary seat, won six out of seven mayoral races, and gained more than half of the urban council seats that were up for grabs in local elections held August 30 - 31. Voting at polling stations, observed by independent observers including emboffs, was generally peaceful. Most irregularities revolved around the run-up to the elections, with charges of intimidation, vote-buying, and registration of ghost voters. The election results generally went as expected, although ZANU-PF machinations may have been decisive in at least one instance. END SUMMARY. Results Breakdown -------------- ¶2. (U) Mayoral Urban Council MDC ZANU-PF 1 Bulawayo 29 0 2 Chitungwiza 5 2 3 Gwanda MDC 6 3 4 Gweru MDC 9 1 5 Hwange 5 1 6 Kadoma 0 16 7 Kariba MDC 6 3 8 Karoi results pending 9 Kwekwe ZANU-PF 2 12 10 Marondera 0 11 11 Mashvingo 8 2 12 Mutare MDC results pending 13 Norton 4 8 14 Redcliff MDC 8 1 15 Ruwa 3 5 16 Shurugwi 0 13 17 Victoria Falls MDC 8 3 18 Zvishavane 5 5 TOTALS 6 MDC, 1 ZANU-PF 98 86 By-Elections 1 Harare Central MDC 2 Makonde ZANU-PF Observing -------------- ¶3. (C) Four Emboffs took part in an independent diplomatic observing mission that covered most areas of the country just before, and on the voting days themselves. While GOZ never acted on repeated requests from the U.S. and other diplomatic missions to be accredited as official election observers, the Registrar General in Harare on the first day of voting reportedly authorized diplomats to observe. However, the authorization was not communicated effectively to local authorities, who sometimes restricted access to polling places and frequently refused to answer questions. The Zimbabwe Elections Support Network (ZESN) reported that its observers had difficulty gaining access to only about ten percent of the polling stations, and they observed irregularities in about five to ten percent of the polling stations they entered. All ZESN observers eventually were given access to their assigned polling stations, a marked improvement over prior elections in which they were beaten or otherwise obstructed in many instances. Violence and Intimidation -------------- ¶4. (C) There were only a few reports of violence and tension on the voting days, and Emboffs found the atmosphere to be slightly more open to their presence than in previous local elections. The MDC reported that ZANU-PF youths stoned the car of the MDC mayoral candidate in Kwekwe on August 30. Other reports had voters obstructed from reaching polling stations. Emboff observed armed police attempting to calm mostly MDC voters who were shouting and shoving at a polling station in the Mutare area when a ZANU-PF candidate tried to form a second line for her voters only. There were other reports of violence, unlawful detention, house stoning and burning during the run-up to elections; however, there reports were fewer in number and the incidents were less egregious than in previous local elections (Refs). MDC officials generally agreed that the atmosphere before and during the elections was more peaceful than in the past. Voters Rolls -------------- ¶5. (C) There were several reports from around the country that there had been mysterious additions to voter rolls, and voters with improper addresses. According to Renson Gasela, MDC Shadow Minister of Agriculture, in about half of the polling stations in the Gweru area, camp kitchens were set up about 100 meters from polling stations to apparently feed voters who had been bussed in from rural areas. According to the MDC mayoral candidate in Gweru, on August 30, a confused woman who was not on the voters roll implored polling officials to let her vote, saying she'd been brought in from a rural area for that purpose. The candidate also relayed stories of hundreds of odd addresses on the voters' roll, including a bus terminal, a P.O. Box and 200 voters registered to one apartment alone. Food Distribution -------------- ¶6. (C) MDC officials in Bulawayo, Gweru, Gwanda, Mutare, Marondera and Kwekwe alleged that during the pre-election period, national youth service members ("Green Bombers") sold maize meal in ten to fifty kilogram bags for about Z$1,000 (US$0.20)--when the normal price for ten kilogram bags has been about Z$14,000 (US$2.50) (Ref A). Apathy -------------- ¶7. (C) The worst case of voter apathy seemed to occur in Harare Central where 4036 votes were cast, or only about eleven percent of registered voters, according to the government-controlled The Herald. Emboffs observed lines of hundreds of people in front of banks around the country during voting hours, while voters arrived in trickles to polling stations. Results -------------- ¶8. (C) The results in almost all of these constituencies were roughly consistent with expectations, and previous elections in these areas. The only glaring difference so far was in Kwekwe, where the ruling party swept the mayoral and all council seats. In the 2002 Presidential elections, the ruling party garnered only 36 percent in Kwekwe, and in the 2000 parliamentary elections it got a paltry 34 percent. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) These elections were characterized primarily by low voter turnout and reduced levels of violence. As in previous elections, much of the ruling party's machinations were disruptive but not decisive. It is difficult to say how much low voter turnout at these local elections should be attributed to intimidation or plain apathy -- daily life for many in Zimbabwe leaves insufficient time, resources or inclination to vote (witness the long bank lines often within sight of empty polling stations). Reduced levels of violence on a national level likely reflect in part ZANU-PF's desire to improve its engagement with the opposition and interested international players. Nonetheless, intimidation through physical and economic duress in several areas indicated that the party is unwilling to lose even local areas in certain instances. For example, Kwekwe -- site of Parliamentary Speaker Emmerson Mnangagwa's embarrassing defeat in the last parliamentary election -- saw a relatively high level of intimidation and manipulation that may have been decisive in the result. In any event, the overall results secure the opposition's overall grip on urban electorates, which have given the MDC control of six of the country's seven largest urban centers and make it harder to ignore. Largely expected as they were and marked by a gradually growing civility between the parties, the results further are unlikely to affect either the national imbalance of power between the parties or progress on interparty talks. SULLIVAN