STAYAWAY SUCCESSFUL, DEMONSTRATIONS QUELLED - DAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001101 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER LONDON FOR C. GURNEY PARIS FOR C. NEARY NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER BANGKOK FOR WIN DAYTON DS/OP/AF E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2013 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ASEC ZI SUBJECT: STAYAWAY SUCCESSFUL, DEMONSTRATIONS QUELLED - DAY ONE OF MDC PLANNED MASS ACTION REF: A. HARARE 1097 ¶B. HARARE 1081 Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d Summary: -------------- ¶1. (C) The MDC planned stayaway has been largely successful with 80 - 95% of shops and businesses closed on June 2 in Harare and Bulawayo. There was very visible police and military presence in both cities starting on May 31, with several arrests and a few reports of beatings. ZANU-PF members distributed leaflets throughout Harare encouraging people to go to work, and the police obtained a High Court ruling on May 31 outlawing the mass action. Police arrested and released MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai. GOZ forceful counter measures have succeeded in preventing demonstrations so far, and leave Mugabe as entrenched as ever after day one of this mass action, albeit sitting on an increasingly fragile economic and political situation. End Summary. Riot Police Disperse Students -------------- ¶2. (U) By about 11:00 a.m. riot police with shields and helmets had dispersed a few hundred students at the University of Zimbabwe campus with tear gas. Gate guards at the University's several entrances refused to allow any vehicles to enter campus citing the disturbance, and police later confined students to their dormitories. According to a student organizer, the students planned to assemble on campus and march to the city center to join with marchers. Two Deaths? -------------- ¶3. (U) There were several unconfirmed reports that police shot at least three people at a demonstration in the high-density suburb of Highfield. Two were reportedly killed; one was wounded and is said to be currently receiving treatment at a local clinic. Intimidating Police and Military Presence -------------- ¶4. (C) During the morning of June 2 there were several other reports that hundreds and sometimes even thousands of people were gathering at various locations in the Harare area in order to demonstrate. Poloffs investigated several of these locations as the reports surfaced and found no increased crowds present. At some of these locations there were significant police presences. ¶5. (C) Over the weekend May 31 - June 1 convoys of tanks and military vehicles were seen traveling around various areas of Harare. According to MDC Presidential Advisor Gandi Mudzingwa, the vehicles, loaded with soldiers, would generally travel around the high-density suburbs at night and return to their barracks during the day. Emboffs observed mounted police patrols during daylight hours on both May 31 and June 2. ¶6. (C) Poloffs observed groups of 5 - 8 police officers on many blocks throughout downtown Harare in the morning of June ¶2. In Africa Unity Square, the proposed location of a demonstration, Poloffs observed a group of at least 15 officers. RSO later observed police beating about 30 - 40 people they had detained and had ordered to lay face down on the sidewalk near the Square. According to Mudzingwa, the MDC had planned a large demonstration at the Square, but had subsequently canceled it because transport was not functioning to bring enough attendees into town. Disturbances Downtown -------------- ¶7. (C) During clashes with what appeared to be MDC youth, police in downtown Harare fired tear gas in the morning of June 2. The Embassy's PAS office, located near the MDC's headquarters, was contemplating closure at midday on June 2 due to these disturbances, but ultimately remained open. Also located downtown, the Swedish Embassy closed at mid-morning on June 2 due to similar fears. Bulawayo: Demonstrators Dispersed, Stayaway Successful -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) According to Sheba Dube, head of the Bulawayo chapter of Women of Zimbabwe Arise (WOZA),in Bulawayo, police were present since the early hours of June 2 at Queen's Park in the downtown area - the site of a planned demonstration. Although about 200 people did gather police reportedly disbursed the crowd beating several people in the process. Police also arrested about ten MDC officials and activists from around the Bulawayo area on June 1 - 2; many were still in custody in the afternoon of June 2. ¶9. (SBU) Dube reported that many shops and businesses in Bulawayo were reportedly closed in the morning, but some grocery stores opened in the afternoon of June 2. In general more than 80% of businesses remained closed with very light pedestrian and vehicle traffic present in downtown Bulawayo. GOZ Counter-Measures -------------- ¶10. (U) In addition to obtaining the May 31 High Court ruling outlawing the planned mass action, the GOZ also printed and distributed leaflets encouraging Zimbabweans to ignore the stayaway. In the days before the mass action, the government press reported that the GOZ would revoke business licenses of companies that did not open and that anyone demonstrating would be defying the High Court order. The GOZ propaganda machine also gave major publicity to war-vet threats to demonstrators. Police Arrest MDC Leaders -------------- ¶11. (U) In addition to the arrest of MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai on the morning of June 2, around midday police SIPDIS arrested MDC Shadow Minister of Home Affairs, Tendai Biti. Tsvangirai was charged with contempt of court for going ahead SIPDIS with the mass action, there was no confirmation of charges against Biti at the time of writing. Police actually released Tsvangirai so that he could attend his treason trial at 10:00 on June 2. There were unconfirmed reports that a few MDC officials in Bulawayo, and a few MDC MPs in Harare were also arrested. Stayaway Successful -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Although there were a fair number of people milling around downtown Harare on the morning of June 2, Poloffs saw almost no shops open, and only a handful of business open. Some public busses were running but the commuter bus pick-up areas had about 15% of the normal crowd present. Other Emboffs traveled around downtown Harare on the afternoon of June 2 and found almost no one present. Comment: -------------- ¶13. (C) By deploying tanks and other intimidating military hardware and personnel in the Harare area, the GOZ has succeeded so far in quashing nascent gatherings that could turn into marches or demonstrations before they have really gained momentum. The MDC is likely to claim victory for the stayaway and for the gatherings that were supposed to be demonstrations, but nothing has yet happened on a massive scale that would boost public confidence that the time is shortening for the Mugabe regime. While it is likely the stayaway will continue for a few more days, and demonstrations are still possible, the GOZ has demonstrated on day one, for its part, that it will use whatever force is necessary to assure that no serious threat to its power can gain momentum. End Comment. SULLIVAN