VICE PRESIDENT'S VISIT TO CUBA SPURS SPECULATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 000533 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/2013 TAGS: PREL PHUM CU GT UNCHR SUBJECT: VICE PRESIDENT'S VISIT TO CUBA SPURS SPECULATION REF: A. GUATEMALA 317 ¶B. GUATEMALA 511 Classified By: Robert E. Copley for reason 1.5(b). ¶1. (C) Summary: A glowing press conference by Vice President Reyes after an official visit to Cuba fueled speculation that some in the GOG are reconsidering Cuba policy. Reyes hinted that Guatemala would abstain on the Cuba vote at the UNCHR, did not rule out voting with Cuba, and said that he brought an invitation from Castro for an official visit by President of Congress Rios Montt. The Ambassador had two separate conversations with the Foreign Minister and President Portillo (ref B). Portillo said the FRG was reacting to decertification; he promised a calm, rational decision on the CUBA HR vote. End Summary. ¶2. (U) After a seven-day official visit to Cuba and a four-hour meeting with Castro, Vice President Reyes told reporters on February 19 that Guatemala would do well to emulate Castro's policies on education, medicine, tourism, and agriculture. Cheerfully handing out Cohiba cigars, the Vice President spent nearly an hour extolling the virtues of the Cuban system. Although the Cuban budget for education is smaller than Guatemala's, Reyes said Cuba accomplishes three times as much with it. Reyes went so far as to say that what he had seen in Cuba almost made him want to move there (opposition press cartoons depicted people taking up a collection to pay his airfare). Even before his departure, Reyes recorded a national address that was broadcast during his trip in which he expressed gratitude for the work of Cuban doctors in Guatemala. Reyes said Guatemala could solve its medical problems if Guatemalan doctors were more like their Cuban counterparts (Comment: Ex FonMin Orellana told DCM that Cuba had asked Reyes to increase the GOG's payment for Cuban Doctors). ¶3. (U) Reyes was vague on the UNCHR vote. In response to direct questions, he refused to rule out voting with Cuba, but hinted that an abstention would be a more likely outcome. Reyes insisted that Castro never mentioned the issue in their meeting. ¶4. (U) Reyes said he found Rios Montt open to the possibility of an official visit to Cuba when he conveyed Castro's invitation. Aristides Crespo, Secretary General of the FRG party and right-hand-man to Rios Montt, has avoided the issue except to deny speculation that a Cuba visit would hurt the FRG's electoral prospects in the eyes of its largely anti-Communist support base. Reftel reports Crespo, on the floor of Congress, calling for support of Cuba at the UNCHR. ¶5. (C) We recently heard from the Foreign Ministry that a March bilateral, usually held at the Vice-Minister level, has been upgraded by the Ministry to a full Ministerial. The agenda will review "all aspects of the relationship." ¶6. (C) At a February 20 dinner that included Foreign Minister Edgar Gutierrez, the Ambassador asked what is going on with Vice President Reyes and his remarks praising the Castro regime. The Foreign Minister said he, too, had been surprised by Reyes Lopez' comments, and met with him to hear about his trip to Cuba. The Ambassador told Gutierrez that the Vice President's remarks, especially about the UNCHR vote, looked like an intentional poke in our eye driven by pique over decertification. He added that a Guatemalan abstention in Geneva would undermine Guatemala's hard-won credibility on human rights, and asked if the GOG was willing to throw this away simply to annoy us. Gutierrez acknowledged that Reyes' statements had been unhelpful, and assured us that the GOG would consult us on the human rights situation in Cuba before President Portillo makes any decision on the UNCHR vote. ¶7. (C) The Ambassador reiterated these arguments to President Portillo on February 25 (ref B). Portillo candidly said the FRG was flirting with CUBA to annoy the USG, due to decertification (which hurts the FRG's electoral chances) and perceived USG blocking of a Rios Montt candidacy. The Ambassador' urged Portillo not to squander the prestige the GOG had acquired in the last two years on Cuba and said the USG would ask the GOG to vote yes on a Cuba human rights motion. Portillo was non-committal, but said the GOG would make a decision after things had calmed down. ¶8. (C) Comment: Cuba is not a significant domestic issue. VP Reyes' flirtation with Cuba probably is in fact a poke in the eye of the USG. We will continue to engage the GOG on this issue. HAMILTON