UNCLAS GUATEMALA 000489

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR G/TIP

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL PREF ELAB SMIG SNAR KCRM KWMN GT
SUBJECT: EMBASSY VIEWS ON REGIONAL ANTI-TIP HARMONIZATION

REF: STATE 32314


1. (SBU) Summary: Embassy concurs that regional
harmonization of anti-trafficking in persons legislation, as
outlined in RefTel, would further U.S. interests in
Guatemala. Harmonized anti-TIP legislation is necessary to
achieve greater regional cooperation to prevent and combat
trafficking, and to protect the rights of victims. The
Regional Conference on Migration may be a useful forum in
which to promote these efforts. In Guatemala, prospects for
passage of new anti-TIP legislation is complicated by
election-year politics. For this reason, regional
discussions would be helpful in 2003, while legislative
efforts are more likely to prosper in 2004. End Summary.


2. (SBU) The following responses are keyed to questions in
RefTel para 4:

a) Willingness of key national legislators to introduce and
promote harmonized anti-TIP legislation:

-- National elections for President, Vice President, all
Congressional deputies and all Mayors will be held in
November 2003. The official campaign period will open in
May, but political jockeying has already begun, complicating
the passage of any legislation this year. For this reason,
prospects for passage of G/TIP harmonization legislation will
be better in 2004. Efforts to pass such legislation in 2003
would depend on the willingness of the National Republican
Front (FRG), which has a simple majority in Congress, to
support it. That willingness is not assured -- the GOG and
FRG are smarting from the recent U.S. counter-narcotics
decertification decision.

b) Openness of legislature and government to work with
neighboring
governments, NGOs, and IOs to achieve harmony of anti-TIP
legislation:

-- We believe the GOG and ruling FRG are open to regional
cooperation in this area with other governments and
international organizations. In general, the
GOG has more hesitation working with regional NGOs.

c) Prospects for passage of an harmonized anti-TIP bill:

-- Prospects for passage of legislation in 2003 is fair. We
estimate that prospects for passage in the new Congress in
2004, with substantial USG lobbying and support, would be
good.

d) impact of a legislative debate on TIP in Guatemala,
regardless of passage:

-- Congressional debate would raise awareness among
legislators, but the issue could also be distorted (e.g. from
TIP to USG interference) by some for political considerations
related to the 2003 political campaign.
MCFARLAND