PROTESTS IN FINAL YEAR OF PORTILLO ADMINISTRATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 000473

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/2013
TAGS: PGOV EAID PINS ETRD ELAB KDEM PINR GT
SUBJECT: PROTESTS IN FINAL YEAR OF PORTILLO ADMINISTRATION
RAISE SPECTER OF DECLINING GOVERNABILITY

Classified By: Political Officer Erik Hall. Reason 1.5 (b&d).


1. (C) Summary: Portillo's virtual absence from public
during a time of mounting social protests has led to growing
concern about governability. The latest challenges, from
teachers, ex-PACs and the "campesinos," are not easily
attributed to Portillo's traditional opponents in the private
sector, and the GOG has few resources to address their
demands. Bloody prison riots fuel public concerns that the
GOG may be abdicating its responsibility for security, as the
prisons were left in the hands of the mutinous prisoners. As
election campaigning begins, Guatemalans are concerned about
the growing potential for confrontation and the lack of
effective action by the Portillo Administration to resolve
the conflicts. One GOG official expressed concern that
governability could decline this year as popular demands grow
and the GOG either cannot or will not address them. It is
important that monitoring of the election begin early so that
social tensions do not negatively impact on the transparency
of the electoral process. End Summary.

Portillo Faces Growing Challenges in Final Year
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2. (C) President Portillo is facing growing pressure from his
traditional populist base as he enters the final year of his
presidency. His agreement in 2002 to negotiate with former
civil patrol members (ex-PACs) a compensation package for
their service during the internal conflict led other social
sectors to compete for the same potential GOG funds. Public
school teachers, an important electoral base of any sitting
government, have been on strike for over six weeks seeking a
40% pay increase, and "campesino" groups demanding land are
increasingly marching in Guatemala City and blocking roads in
the countryside. Portillo's reaction so far has been to let
his ministers talk with the protesters without making
commitments, but Portillo himself has been out of the public
eye for almost a month. He surfaced in Panama for a recent
meeting of Central American presidents with Colombian
President Uribe, but other than that has not appeared in
public and has not spoken to the press. He even recruited
Attorney General Carlos de Leon (constitutionally not a
member of the executive) to give a nationally televised
speech calling, on behalf of the President, for the avoidance
of violence in the protests. Portillo's virtual absence has
led to much perhaps exaggerated press speculation that
Portillo is increasingly disengaging from the day to day
issues of governance and that governability will continue to
deteriorate in this final year of his administration.

Teachers and Campesinos Drawing Closer
--------------


3. (C) As the national teachers strike (an unofficial work
stoppage rather than a legally sanctioned strike) entered its
sixth week on February 17, police and military MPs cordoned
off key government buildings, but could not prevent
occupation by protesters. The striking teachers number more
than 80,000 nationwide, and on January 30 and February 12
turned out 20-40,000 in the capital -- the largest popular
protests in recent history. On February 17, teachers agreed,
after mediation by Church leaders, to leave the occupied
Finance Ministry and restart dialogue with the Ministers of
Labor, Education, and Finance over their demands for more
funds for education, but the dialogue so far has not produced
the outlines of a solution. Finance Minister Weymann told us
that the GOG does not have the funds to back up its original
offer of 100 Quetzales (approximately $13) a month pay
increase for the teachers (which the teachers rejected),and
said that giving in to the teachers would lead other public
sector workers to ask for similar increases which would
"break the bank."


4. (SBU) Meanwhile, campesino groups and organized labor have
voiced sympathy for the teachers, and talks between the two
groups were announced for February 18. Nery Barrios, head of
the UASP union confederation which includes the striking
teachers and the major campesino federation, told the
Ambassador on February 13 that direct action (meaning
unsanctioned strikes and street-level protest) are the only
means available to workers to counter fruitless dialogue with
the GOG. Jose Pinzon, leader of the other major labor
federation, the Union of Guatemalan Workers (UGT),said
workers are disillusioned by electoral politics, where
"(political candidates) run (for office) for the people, but
govern for their financial backers."


5. (U) GOG Peace Commissioner Catalina Soberanis told
reporters on February 17 that the GOG had completed its
census of ex-PACs and had determined that 600,000 people were
eligible for compensation. There has been no significant
movement, however, on funding a compensation package for the
former civil patrol members or the widows and orphans from
the internal conflict.

Prison Riots Go Unchecked
--------------


6. (SBU) Even as Guatemalans wonder how the GOG is going to
address the growing social demands, two bloody riots at local
prisons have left many concerned that the GOG is not
fulfilling its responsibility to keep order and impose the
law. The latest in a series of prison riots, which occurred
on February 12, left seven dead at the capital's preventive
detention facility, including the convicted murderer of
Monsignor Gerardi. Reports that prisoners were playing
soccer with the decapitated heads of rival prisoners in full
view of the guards left most Guatemalans numbed. News of
this gruesome event set off rumors of GOG intentions to use
the riot as an excuse to declare a "state of exception or
siege." Guatemalans were deeply disturbed by the
Government's inability or unwillingness to impose order in
the two prisons that were now under the control of the
mutinous prisoners. The prison riots coincide with an
alarming rise in violent crime that affects all Guatemalans,
but especially the poor, and has led some commentators to
question whether the Portillo Administration is increasingly
abdicating its role to provide effective citizen security.

One GOG Insider Concerned About Lack of Response to Protests
-------------- --------------


7. (C) The continuing social tensions and the lack of
effective GOG response has some concerned within the GOG as
well. New Secretary for Strategic Analysis Arturo Montenegro
confided to us privately his misgivings about the
determination among Portillo Administration hard-liners,
especially Vice President Reyes Lopez, to meet growing social
and political opposition to the government with confrontation
or total inaction.


8. (C) Montenegro believes that the teacher's strike has the
potential to become a bigger problem for the GOG. He is
concerned that it is only a matter of time before the
ex-PAC's begin pressuring the government as well, and said
the government doesn't have any solution to offer. Instead,
he said, the GOG was seriously considering firing the
teachers, adding fuel to the fire. Election pressures will
make every possible group surface demanding resources from
the government. Meanwhile, he said, the GOG is broke, and
cannot honor any promises it makes. In addition, the crime
situation is fast getting out of hand and no one has a
solution; none of the solutions being talked about in the
Cabinet (including using the military) has any hope of
addressing the problem effectively, he opined. Finally,
Montenegro worried that the international community
(including the US) will gradually disengage from Guatemala if
they don't see the Portillo Administration addressing its own
problems and strengthening governability in this final year.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) The confluence of popular demands and street-level
protests is no surprise--it has surfaced in several forms
since 2000 (which the GOG has dealt with, often by postponing
resolution of conflicts) and may increase as the election
campaign heats up. The major social groups are competing for
resources the GOG doesn't have to offer, and are frustrated
after long fruitless efforts at dialogue with the government
and a succession of unmet promises. To a large extent,
Portillo brought this series of social protests on himself by
conceding early to ex-PAC demands for compensation after they
blocked tourist and transportation access in the Peten last
year.


10. (C) The Government does not appear to have a coherent
strategy for dealing with the current social protests, and
the lack of leadership, indeed, the virtual absence of
President Portillo, has led many to question if the Portillo
Administration is beginning to disengage.


11. (C) If the Portillo Administration does not respond
effectively to the current challenges to governability, and
protests continue through the electoral campaign, public
doubts about the transparency of the electoral process will
grow. The international community has little to offer the
GOG in terms of addressing the underlying problems which have
led to the protests, but it is in our interest to seek an
early beginning to international election monitoring in order
to ensure the transparency and public credibility of the
elections.
HAMILTON