IN PORTILLO'S ABSENCE, ELECTION HOLIDAY LAW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002827

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID PINR GT OAS
SUBJECT: IN PORTILLO'S ABSENCE, ELECTION HOLIDAY LAW
CAUSING GROWING FRICTION

REF: GUATEMALA 2796

Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: President Portillo traveled to Panama without
vetoing the controversial election holiday bill (reftel),and
opposition to the legislation has taken on a fever pitch.
The Supreme Electoral Tribunal called on Portillo (who
returns on the afternoon of November 4) to veto the law
because of the impediments it creates to the election
process. The OAS and EU observation missions, several of the
domestic observation efforts and we have issued public
statements urging Portillo to veto the law. Opposition
candidates are calling openly for civil disobedience. FRG
legislative leaders met with the Ambassador late on November
3 to argue that the law simply needed to be "clarified" by an
executive decree, but the Ambassador urged them to weigh-in
with the Executive to veto the bill as it is already creating
confusion with voters and raising political tensions on the
eve of elections. Portillo assured us through his Foreign
Minister that he would veto the bill if a compromise could
not be reached. With public pressure growing, we expect him
to address the issue publicly on his return to the country.
End summary.


2. (C) Opposition to the recently passed election holiday
bill (reftel) is creating an escalation in political tensions
as sectors of the opposition and civil society begin to
realize the impact it could have on discouraging voters.
Many also see this as another in a long series of attempts by
the FRG to manipulate the elections, and they are determined
that this is where they will hold the line. The OAS Election
Observation Mission, joined by two domestic missions, held a
press conference on November 2 calling on President Portillo
to veto the bill. They argued that the law would create
serious impediments to the electoral process by discouraging
people from traveling. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE)
held a press conference on November 3 also calling on
Portillo to veto the bill, saying that the law forbid the TSE
from working on election day and threatened penalties for
providers of support services to the TSE.


3. (C) The Ambassador met with the legislative leadership of
the FRG on the evening of November 3 at their request to
discuss the bill. The FRG was represented by Majority Leader
Aristides Crespo, First Vice President of Congress Zury Rios,
FRG Vice Presidential candidate Edin Barrientos, Minister of
Finance Eduardo Weymann and FRG legal representative Jorge
Arevalo. The FRG leaders argued that the TSE was biased
against them, that the domestic observation mission was
partial and under the influence of their arch-enemy Frank
Larue, that the Human Rights Ombudsman was in league with
their critics, and that the private sector was determined to
keep their laborers (who are largely FRG supporters,
according to the FRG) from voting by not letting them return
to their distant homes to vote on election day. The FRG
leaders said that they were not going to protest the TSE
partiality against them, but were determined to force
landowners to let migrant workers go home to vote. That was
why they passed the election holiday law, and that is why
they stand by it. In response to our earlier appeals to them
for reconsideration (reftel),they were proposing an
Executive Decree "clarifying" what productive work could be
done over the three-day holidays, and it would include
letting TSE members work, keeping hotels and gas stations
open and authorizing journalists to work.


4. (C) The Ambassador told them that the USG shares their
concern that all laborers be allowed to vote. He said,
however, that the law, even with the amendment they were
proposing, would continue to create confusion and was more
likely to discourage voting and unnecessarily stoke the
political confrontation only days before the election. He
urged the FRG leaders to seek ways to diminish tensions in
these closing days of the campaign, and said that we thought
the only way to address the current impasse was for President
Portillo to veto this legislation, and for Congress to draft
a new law before the second round.


5. (C) On November 4, the official gazette published
Executive Decree 700-2003 "clarifying" the Labor Code's
definition of essential services, expanding the categories
contained in the election holiday bill (still not signed and
published) to include electric and water services,
journalism, gas stations, hotels and employees of the TSE.
The "clarification" (when many sectors were expecting a
presidential veto) further fueled rising political tensions.
The private sector organization CACIF held a press conference
to denounce the holiday law as "another example of FRG
fraud." The major opposition parties, which had earlier
called for civil disobedience against the law, have called a
press conference for the afternoon of November 4.


6. (U) The Embassy released a press statement on the morning
of November 4 calling on employers to ensure that their
employees are able to go home to vote, and calling on the
government to veto the law. The Embassy press statement
follows:

"Declaration on the Election Holiday Law: The United States
Embassy wishes to affirm publicly our view, which we have
been expressing privately to the Government of Guatemala
since Saturday. A fundamental change in the rules under
which elections are being carried out so close to election
day can only have the effect of undermining public
confidence. We do not think a unilateral clarification of
the law would be sufficient to restore public confidence.
Therefore, we respectfully call on the President to veto this
legislation. We believe such a veto imposes a moral
obligation on all employers to take extraordinary steps to
ensure all employees are able to exercise their right to
vote. We call on all national and international observer
missions to verify that there has been no impediment to the
right to vote."


7. (C) GANA Vice Presidential candidate Eduardo Stein phoned
the Ambassador on November 4 to report that our statement
had just been read aloud at an (OAS-sponsored) Forum of
Political Parties, to general relief and approbation. Stein
could not have been more profuse in his thanks.


8. (C) President Portillo is scheduled to return from Panama
on the afternoon of November 4. He assured us (through
Foreign Minister Gutierrez) and similarly assured a visiting
delegation from the Robert Kennedy Center that he would veto
the law if agreement could not be reached to reform it. The
President of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal is to meet with
Portillo on the afternoon of November 4 to press for a
presidential veto.


9. (C) Comment: With only five days left before national
elections, the flap over the election holiday law has
generated renewed tensions and fears of bad behavior by the
FRG on election day (the FRG leaders, in the meeting with the
Ambassador, again pledged to respect the results and to
behave peacefully during the elections). We expect Portillo
to veto the law, but the debate has already taken a toll on
confidence in the electoral process.
HAMILTON