AMBASSADOR AND RIOS MONTT DISCUSS DECERTIFICATION,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 GUATEMALA 000243

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL SNAR PHUM ETRD PINR MOPS GT
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR AND RIOS MONTT DISCUSS DECERTIFICATION,
CAFTA, HUMAN RIGHTS AND LEGISLATIVE ISSUES


Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (d).


1. (C) Summary: In a January 27 meeting with the Ambassador,
President of Congress Rios Montt professed to be a strong
supporter of CAFTA (which he views as reducing the political
influence of the traditional economic elites),and expressed
understanding for Guatemala's impending counternarcotics
decertification. He regretted that the decertification
decision would come during the election year, but said it was
"correct." Rios Montt volunteered nothing on his plans for
the upcoming election, but did say it would not be easy for
the USG to remain neutral. He offered to help us on a
variety of bilateral issues. Although the meeting was frank,
it was cordial enough, and it was clear that Rios Montt wants
to be viewed by us as a pragmatic ally on those issues where
our interests coincide. End summary.


2. (SBU) The Ambassador, PAO and PolCouns met with President
of Congress Efrain Rios Montt at Congress on January 27. The
retired General and former defacto President was accompanied
by three of his most trusted parliamentary advisors: First
Vice President of Congress Carlos Hernandez, Third Vice
President of Congress Jorge Arevalo and Frente Republicano
Guatemalteco (FRG) caucus head Aristides Crespo. Not present
was Second Vice President of Congress Zury Rios Sosa, his
daughter. Rios Montt took the Ambassador's
"isn't-there-a-Vice-President-missing?" tweaking in good
grace.

Counternarcotics Cooperation and CAFTA
--------------

3. (C) As he has with other official and unofficial
interlocutors, the Ambassador said that the White House would
soon announce a decision regarding the certification of
countries that cooperate in the war against drugs, and that,
in all likelihood, Guatemala would be decertified. He noted
that a recent upsurge in cooperation by the GOG and increased
cocaine seizures would augur well for Guatemala getting a
vital national interests waiver. The Ambassador noted,
however, that it is critical that GOG cooperation against
narcotics improve quickly, as prolonged decertification would
make it more difficult for the U.S. Congress to consider
entering into a free trade agreement with Guatemala at the
time negotiations are concluded. The Ambassador argued that
a free trade agreement (CAFTA) offers the best hope for
reducing poverty in Guatemala, and that it is in both
countries' interests to ensure that negotiations proceed
smoothly, addressing promptly non-trade related issues that
could fuel opposition to an agreement.


4. (C) Rios Montt regretted that decertification should come
at the beginning of the election campaign, and said
Guatemalans would inevitably link the two. He added that the
United States "would do what it had to do," but said that we
were "correct" in decertifying. He did not defend the
Portillo Administration's record on counternarcotics
cooperation, nor argue (as other senior GOG officials do)
that flagging counternarcotics cooperation was a result of
resource constraints.


5. (C) On CAFTA, Rios Montt said that he is one of its
greatest proponents. He agreed that it was the region's best
hope for poverty reduction, and added that it would break the
power of the monopolies that have long dominated Guatemala's
economy as well as its politics. Rios argued that free trade
would also be hard to sell to some in Guatemala's Congress,
noting that legislators who have ties to "mercantilist
business sectors" are intent on opposing it.


6. (C) The Ambassador noted that critics of globalization and
others in the U.S. will question why we are entering into a
special trade relationship with Guatemala when threats
against human rights workers are growing and the murders of
11 Amcits (now 12) since 1999 have gone unsolved. He urged
the ruling party legislators to use their influence with the
government to ensure that attention is brought to these
issues.

The Upcoming Elections
--------------

7. (C) The Ambassador told Rios Montt that the United States
will be scrupulously neutral in the November 2003 national
elections. He noted that the sole USG interest in the
elections is that they be "free, fair and constitutional,"
and noted that we are working with the Supreme Electoral
Tribunal (TSE) and civil society organizations to contribute
to the transparency of the process. The Ambassador asked
Rios Montt if criticisms of the way the TSE members were
elected could contribute to a constitutional challenge at
some point (Note: OAS reps have told us they have doubts that
the mechanism used to replace a full tribunal member who
resigned with an alternate was legal. end note). Rios Montt
responded that the mechanism used was that established in the
Tribunal's statutes, but said that constitutional lawyers
could make arguments for and against (Note: None of the
political parties has objected to the way the TSE member who
resigned was replaced, and the OAS' concern does not, at
least at this stage, appear to be shared by any of the
parties. end note).


8. (C) Rios Montt said that he doubted that it would be easy
for the United States to remain truly neutral in the upcoming
electoral campaign. He made no allusions to his own possible
candidacy, but at one point in the conversation said that if
the FRG were the largest "opposition party" in Congress in
the next session, we could count on their support.


9. (SBU) Rios Montt said that the FRG continued to pursue
reform of the electoral law, but had given up pressing for
implementation of reforms this year. He believes the bill
will eventually be adopted, but not put into place until
after the 2003 elections.

The Clandestine Groups
--------------

10. (SBU) The Ambassador drew attention to the recent
announcement of the Human Rights Ombudsman in regard to the
creation of an international commission to investigate the
operations of clandestine groups. The Ambassador praised the
legislators for passing a resolution supporting this
initiative and urged the FRG leaders to give this proposal
their full support. Congressman Arevalo responded that
indeed Congress had passed the resolution with the vote of
all the FRG members.

The 2003 Legislative Agenda
--------------

11. (U) In response to a question from the Ambassador, Rios
Montt said that the priorities for the 2003 legislative
agenda would include laws designed to implement Peace Accord
commitments. He noted that financial transparency laws would
top the agenda, with the Law of Public Contracts and a
Freedom of Information Law already under discussion. He said
that Congress was also working on a law to compensate those
affected by the war (note: the term he used did not
distinguish between victims and former civil patrol members).
This legislative session will be substantially reduced by
the election campaign, which will soon begin distracting the
attention of legislators.

New Horizons
--------------

12. (C) The Ambassador thanked Rios Montt for the quick
action by Congress in 2001 to approve the New Horizons joint
military exercise in the Peten. He noted that we are
planning a similar exercise in Jutiapa in 2004, and were
already working on an agreement with the GOG to authorize
this exercise. He asked the legislators if we could count on
their continued support for this exercise. Rios Montt
responded that he is a strong believer in civic action
exercises and would ensure continued support in Congress as
long as he was President of Congress. He noted that, by
2004, the composition of Congress was less certain.

IPR Legislation
--------------

13. (U) The Ambassador expressed concern about legislation
recently passed by Congress which represents a big step
backward for IPR protection and violates Guatemala's
international commitments on the matter. He asked the
legislative leaders to take quick action to bring Guatemala
back into compliance with its international IPR commitments,
particularly in view of ongoing CAFTA negotiations where
Guatemala's IPR regime would become a matter of discord.


14. (SBU) Rios Montt opened by saying that the new law was
not inconsistent with the direction international drug patent
protection was heading, and alluded to official USG
statements supporting generic drugs. He recognized, however,
that arguments could be made against its conformity with
Guatemala's international IPR commitments, and said Congress
was prepared to repeal the law as soon as it is published and
the Executive sends a bill calling for its repeal. He
implied that the law, which was promoted by opposition
congressmen, would not be in effect for long before it was
repealed.

Fuel Taxes
--------------

15. (SBU) The Ambassador commented that the Guatemalan tax
authority (SAAT) was using the lack of explicit language
exempting diplomatic missions from paying the new fuel tax to
charge this tax to embassies in violation of the Vienna
Convention. Noting that Congress was rewriting that law, he
asked that they give consideration to including specific
language which would honor Guatemala's commitment under the
Vienna Convention and specifically exempt diplomatic missions
from these taxes. Rios Montt said that he had been a
Military Attache in Madrid for several years and understands
the importance of fully implementing the Vienna Convention.
He promised to ensure that new tax laws include assurances
that protect diplomatic missions against paying the taxes.

Tyco and 911
--------------

16. (U) The Ambassador told the legislators that a U.S.
company (Tyco) had made a significant investment in designing
the architecture of a 911 system for Guatemala at the request
of the GOG, and they needed to know if the GOG was interested
in purchasing their product (the actual phone and support
equipment). Tyco does not want to invest further if the GOG
is not interested, but they do not want to walk away now if
the GOG is going to buy the system. Tyco told us that the
funding decision was being held up by Congress.


17. (U) Rios Montt said that GUATEL (the national phone
company) has the funding in hand should it decide to purchase
the system, and said Congress will not have any role to play
in this decision. He added that he thinks a 911 system is a
good idea, but noted that in Guatemala there is no police and
ambulance infrastructure to support it. He quipped that
there would be no first responder to send if someone called
911 asking for help. He questioned whether it would not be a
better idea for a U.S. company to bid on a concession to run
not only a 911 phone line, but the complete package of first
response.

Rios Montt's view of his country
--------------

18. (C) Rios Montt closed the meeting by welcoming the
Ambassador to Guatemala and saying that Guatemala is a very
complex and complicated country. He said that ethnic
identity continues to divide the country in ways that will
not be easily overcome. He added that Guatemalans have a
deeply entrenched culture of confrontation which long
preceded the arrival of the Spaniards, and said that
compromise and consensus are not native. Rios Montt said
that much of the current confrontation can be blamed on the
traditional economic elite's often violent resistance to
change, but said that CAFTA offered the opportunity to
"democratize" the economy once and for all.

Comment
--------------

19. (C) The General was animated, in good form, and clearly
wanted to come across as a pragmatist we can deal with in
areas where our interests coincide. He did not try to
address the historic concerns he knows that we have regarding
his role during the internal conflict and appeared resigned
to accepting that those impressions will never change. Rios
Montt views CAFTA as the best tool for breaking the back of
the traditional economic monopolies that have long played an
important role in Guatemalan politics, and as such he is an
ardent supporter. While tacitly acknowledging that there
will be areas where our interests will not coincide (e.g. his
electoral ambitions),it was clear that Rios Montt believes
we share many interests in common, and he is prepared to work
with us to advance those interests.
Hamilton