CAMPAIGN POLITICS UPDATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 GUATEMALA 002412

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM GT
SUBJECT: CAMPAIGN POLITICS UPDATE

REF: GUATEMALA 2345


1. (SBU) Summary: With the registration of twelve
presidential tickets complete, the presidential race has
narrowed to four main contenders (only the top two in the
first round, on November 9, will contend in the second round,
on December 28). Oscar Berger of the tripartite GANA
coalition is ahead by all measures, and seems certain to make
the second round. Alvaro Colom (National Unity of Hope Party
(UNE)),leads ruling Guatemalan Republican Front (FRG)
candidate Efrain Rios Montt for second place in the polls.
Lionel Lopez Rodas, the National Advancement Party's (PAN)
standard-bearer, trails behind the three front-runners in the
polls but has effectively emphasizing a tough anti-crime
message, responding to voter concerns. Judicial processes
still cloud the picture, with continuing court review of Rios
Montt's candidacy and rumors of coming challenges to Berger.
With the campaign now in full swing, the candidates' messages
are flooding the media, and civil society groups are at high
alert for fraud and political violence. A presidential
debate on September 16 did not attract Berger or Rios Montt,
but gave smaller party candidates the chance to shine and
question the integrity of published polls showing them out of
contention. End Summary.

The Twelve
--------------


2. (U) The following 12 presidential candidates were
registered with the Electoral Tribunal (TSE) before the
September 10 deadline, and have until September 18 to
complete all the documentary requirements for final
confirmation:

(1) "Frente Republicano Guatemalteco" (FRG) Guatemalan
Republican Front
(P) Jose Efrain Rios Montt
(VP) Edin Raymundo Barrientos

(2) "Unidad Revolucionaria Nacional Guatemalteca" (URNG)
Guatemalan National Revolutionary Union
(P) Rodrigo Asturias Amado
(VP) Pablo Ignacio Ceto Sanchez

(3) "Gran Alianza Nacional" (GANA) Grand National Alliance
(P) Oscar Berger Perdomo
(VP) Eduardo Stein Barillas

(4) "Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza" (UNE) National Unity of
Hope
(P) Alvaro Colom Caballeros
(VP) Fernando Andrade Daz-Duran

(5) "Partido de Avanzada Nacional" (PAN) National Advancement
Party
(P) Leonel Lopez Rodas
(VP) Ruben Alfonso Ramrez

(6) "Partido Unionista" (PU) Unionist Party
(P) Fritz Garca Gallont
(VP) Hctor Cifuentes

(7) "Democracia Cristiana Guatemalteca" (DCG) Christian
Democratic Party
(P) Jacobo Arbenz Villanova
(VP) Rolando Castro De Leon

(8) "Desarrollo Integral Autentico-Partido Libertador
Progresista" (DIA-PLP) Authentic Integrated Development Party
- Progressive Liberation Party
(P) Eduardo Suger
(VP) Maritza Ruiz de Vielman

(9) "Cambio Nacional" (CN) National Change
(P) Manuel Conde Orellana
(VP) Estuardo Meneses

(10) "Los Verdes" (LV) Green Party
(P) Rodolfo Rosales Garca-Salas
(VP) Emilio Recinos

(11) "Union Nacional" (UN) National Union Party
(P) Fernando Arredondo
(VP) Jorge Canale Nanne

(12) "Democracia Social Participativa" (DSP) Democratic
Social Participation
(P) Jose Angel Lee
(VP) Americo Cifuentes

Three other parties are running candidates for Congress, and
mayoralties, without presidential or vice presidential
candidates: the "Union Democratica" (UD) Democratic Union,
"Alianza Nueva Nacion" (ANN) New Nation Alliance, and
"Transparencia" Transparency Party.

Potential Legal Challenges
--------------


3. (SBU) No legal challenges have yet been filed against the
registration of these candidates, with the exception of Rios
Montt. On September 11, the Supreme Court announced that it
would not hear appeals from the UNE and the GANA's Otto Perez
Molina of Rios Montt's registration, respecting a
Constitutional Court order against any further constitutional
challenges to Rios Montt's candidacy. The Constitutional
Court, for its part, has yet to rule on a similar appeal of
Rios Montt's registration, but is widely expected to reject
it. Some FRG leaders claim the GANA is also vulnerable to a
legal challenge to its registration, which is complicated by
its three-party alliance. Another GOG official recently told
the Ambassador that legal charges may be filed against Berger
for irregularities in a bus contract he signed years ago as
mayor of Guatemala City, which could also potentially
threaten his candidacy.

Battle of the Polls
--------------


4. (SBU) Ref reported the results of Vox Latina's latest
poll, which showed Berger ahead with 38%, Colom in second
with 18%, and Rios Montt in third with 11%. Lopez Rodas
trailed at 7%, and 22% were undecided. The Vox Latina poll
also showed Berger handily winning in the second round
against either Rios Montt or Colom.


5. GOG sources tell us that the FRG's internal polls,
supposedly conducted to simulate secret balloting,
unsurprisingly put Rios Montt in second, at 21%, after
Berger, with 32% of voter preferences. According to both
polls, Colom is in third place with 18% and Lopez Rodas
trails at 10%. Lopez Rodas told the Ambassador on September
11 that his own polling data shows him contending with Colom
for second place, with 15%. A GANA-commissioned private
Noguera poll shows Berger at 45%, Colom in second with 21%,
Rios Montt in third with 14% and Lopez Rodas following with
6%, and claims a margin of error of 3.1%. In the Noguera
poll, only 9% are undecided. A Demoscopia poll published in
"Siglo XXI" on September 16 shows similar results, with
Berger at 47%, Colom at 14%, Rios Montt at 13%, and Lopez
Rodas at 7%. The Demoscopia poll reflects lower rates of
voter indecision than Vox Latina's poll conducted over the
same period and claims a margin of error of 2.8%.


6. (SBU) Colom and URNG presidential candidate Asturias have
publicly criticized the polls as inflated in favor of Berger,
and we are hearing rumors of strife within the media over
distortions of poll results. The polls consistently show
voter concern over crime and personal security, and
unemployment as the two issues on most voters minds.

Debate: 15 minutes of Fame
--------------


7. (U) The first public debate involving most registered
presidential candidates was held on September 16, under
sponsorship of the Business Center (not to be confused with
CACIF),OAS and the TSE's Political Party Forum. The
Ambassador and other diplomats and dignitaries attended as
"witnesses of honor." Berger, Rios Montt and Garcia-Gallont
did not participate, for which they were roundly jeered by
the crowd. Berger and the FRG were singled out for criticism
from those remaining, the former for inflating poll results,
the latter for the corruption and ineffectiveness of the
current government. None of the candidates said they would
raise taxes. All said more could be done with the resources
now available to the government (including better tax
collection) and most hinted at austerity programs while
prioritizing social needs, rather than new spending. None
responded to a question about re-certification by criticizing
the process; instead, they competed to outdo each other on
the importance of combating organized crime. Lopez Rodas
promoted his "tough on crime" platform effectively, promising
to make dramatic changes to improve security from "day one"
of his Administration. Rosales, the Green Party candidate,
bombastically criticized others, positioning himself as an
outsider not tainted by previous government service.


8. (SBU) Colom criticized Berger for inflating the polls,
asked rhetorically why campesinos are bearing the cost of
buses bought by Berger when he was mayor, promised to cancel
a business transaction tax (IEMA),opposed privatization of
health or education services, promised to fight organized
crime, and revive a national dialogue and fiscal pact.
Asturias, the URNG candidate, appeared old and frail, but
gave reasoned responses, opposing privatization, and
promoting the URNG's agenda to fully implement the peace
accords. Eduardo Suger came off as professorial, often
beginning his response to softball questions with "this issue
is very complex..." Manuel Conde of the National Change
Party was more energetic, and Arbenz exhibited gravitas but
his proposals lacked substance. Following the debate, the
participants (and the FRG) joined together to denounce the
manipulation of polls, especially the Demoscopia poll, in
favor of Berger, insisting that future polls were not
authorized to use their names and party logos. The
opposition press has reacted with studied indignation to this
charge, and we are currently witnessing a big flap (which
shall dissipate) as a result.

Campaign Issues/Strategies
--------------


9. (U) Berger had returned to Guatemala and the stump on
September 8, after prostate surgery in NY. Since his return
he has proposed investing in public works infrastructure
projects (new capital airport, ring road, highways),to
generate employment. On September 11 Berger said he was also
contemplating tax cuts. His running-mate, Eduardo Stein,
publicly proposed a governability pact among political
parties on the same day. GANA campaign manager Eduardo
Gonzalez told the press GANA is not concerned about Berger's
fall of seven points in the Vox Latina poll, still hopes to
win in the first round, and there will be no change to
campaign strategy. The GANA is still finalizing its plan of
government.


10. (SBU) Gen. Rios Montt has stepped down from his post as
President of Congress to dedicate himself full-time to the
campaign. Despite recent rumors of Rios Montt's ill health,
his running-mate, Edin Barrientos, claimed on September 9
that the General is showing no signs of slowing down. The
FRG has launched a massive media campaign under the slogan
"Security, Well Being, Justice." The FRG announced plans to
visit three or four municipalities each week between Thursday
and Sunday, giving special attention to areas where major
media do not penetrate, and keeping its distance from major
media coverage (apart from paid advertising),which it
considers biased. A dominant theme for FRG candidates is
their intention to "take from the rich and give to the poor."
For his part, President Portillo has made statements
promising to increase the minimum wage by at least 8% (the VP
later publicly pushed for 18%) and has been reproached by the
Supreme Electoral Tribunal for overstepping bounds on GOG
advertising of public works projects.


11. (U) Colom's team is giddy with the poll results
uniformly showing Colom's steady climb in popularity, which
they estimate even higher, at 23%, well above Rios Montt and
Lopez Rodas. On the stump, Colom is emphasizing citizen
security, job creation, poverty reduction, education and
housing. Colom has also promised new roads to more
marginalized municipalities he visits, and was the only
candidate who showed up at a candidate forum convoked by the
council of indigenous elders.


12. (SBU) Lopez Rodas told the Ambassador on September 11
that security and job creation are the major campaign issues,
and he plans to attack them by "putting the Army in the
streets on January 14 (inauguration day)," outlawing the
possession of automatic weapons, criminalizing gang
membership, taking control of the borders and forcefully
prosecuting the war on drugs, contraband, and trafficking in
persons. He said he chose to focus his message on crime and
jobs after earlier messages on health and education caused
eyes to glaze. (Note: the Noguera poll shows crime at the
top of voter concerns (58%),followed by the general economic
situation (25%) and lack of jobs (25%). End Note.) When
pressed by the Ambassador about the dangers of giving the
Army an internal security role, Lopez Rodas said the show of
force in the streets would be used to prevent crime until
corrupt police could be purged and the police force built up
to the task. Employment will be generated by a massive
home-building public works project, and labor peace secured
by a general labor pact to be negotiated among government,
business and labor leaders. The Ambassador concurred that
greater gun control is needed, welcomed Lopez Rodas' emphasis
on counter-narcotics, and pitched the shared importance of
combating trafficking in persons.

Comment
--------------


13. (SBU) Berger's absence from the debate was not
surprising. Since Serrano Elias came from behind to win the
presidency after a similar debate in 1991, front-runners have
all declined to participate. It is no surprise either that
Rios Montt has also avoided public debate. Given his lack of
charisma, Colom would be wise to do so in future as well.
His low-key demeanor translates as weakness in a combative
format. In contrast, Lopez Rodas delivery is forceful and
polished, but strikes us as feigned.


14. (SBU) While we don't have much faith in any particular
poll, the general picture they describe implies that in
Guatemala's two-stage election process, the interesting
battle is for second place. With Berger securely leading the
field (but probably losing support to Colom),the race for
second place could easily affect the final outcome of the
elections. If Rios Montt makes it to the second round with
Berger, Berger will benefit from a massive anti-FRG vote.
If, however, Colom or, more improbably (but not impossibly),
Lopez Rodas join Berger in the second round, Berger loses the
anti-FRG windfall, and conceivably the presidency.
HAMILTON