NEW ELECTION POLL PUTS RIOS MONTT FIFTH, WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 002052 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2013 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL PINR PHUM GT SUBJECT: NEW ELECTION POLL PUTS RIOS MONTT FIFTH, WITH THREE PERCENT; OTHER ELECTION NEWS Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) Election poll results released on August 12 show GANA presidential candidate Oscar Berger leading the pack with 44% (up from 37% in July); followed by UNE candidate Alvaro Colom with 17% (up from 13% in July) and FRG candidate Efrain Rios Montt with 3% (down from 8% in July in the same poll). Responses to polling questions regarding the FRG-directed violent protests of July 24-25 indicate that many previously undecided voters blame the FRG leadership for the disturbances, and decided as a result to vote against the FRG. While electoral polls in Guatemala are often inaccurate and, at a minimum, underestimate the rural vote (where the FRG has its strength),anecdotal evidence developed by the Embassy from informal surveys conducted recently in rural areas supports the conclusion that Berger remains significantly ahead in voter preferences, not only in the capital, but also in much of the countryside. ¶2. (C) Independent presidential candidate Rodolfo Paiz withdrew from the presidential race during the first week of August, and called on his supporters to vote for Oscar Berger. There are reports that DC candidate Ricardo Bueso will pull his hat out of the electoral ring by August 14. Paiz, a supermarket heir who headed a small political party, polled 1% in August, and Bueso failed to reach 2.5%, after spending millions of dollars of his own money in the campaign. The withdrawal of both candidates will favor Oscar Berger as their support base was mostly anti-FRG. ¶3. (C) The FRG held its congressional nominating assembly on August 9, and, to the surprise of many, gave four prominent slots on the national slate of legislative candidates to nephews and nieces of General Rios Montt. The strategy of favoring family members over local party bosses or campaign contributors signals a change in the FRG's electoral strategy from one of winning votes to one of insuring that their legislative block, in the event of losing the presidential election, remains loyal. The calculated decision to sacrifice electoral votes in exchange for holding the FRG bloc in Congress together after an electoral defeat suggests that the FRG believes their chances of winning the presidential election are not high. ¶4. (U) The Supreme Court on August 11 accepted a new appeal against the candidacy of Rios Montt. With Rios Montt now registered as a candidate and with the Constitutional Court having already ruled that no appeals can be accepted that contradict its July 14 ruling that Rios Montt can be a candidate, there is no reason to expect this latest challenge to succeed. HAMILTON