FRG REACTS TO USG STATEMENT ABOUT RIOS MONTT CANDIDACY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 001454 SIPDIS HARARE FOR BRUCE WHARTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2013 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PHUM SNAR GTC O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 001454



SIPDIS



HARARE FOR BRUCE WHARTON



E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2013

TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, PHUM, SNAR, GT

SUBJECT: FRG REACTS TO USG STATEMENT ABOUT RIOS MONTT

CANDIDACY





Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (b) and (d).



1. (C) Summary: Guatemala's anti-government dailies gave

prominent play to the Department's May 27 statement

expressing concern over the presidential candidacy of former

de facto president Efrain Rios Montt. Zury Rios and other

prominent FRG contacts immediately weighed in with the

Ambassador and Embassy Officers to express their

disappointment with the U.S. position. The opposition has

been privately pleased with the U.S. statement, though public

reaction has been limited. We do not know to what extent FRG

pique will affect the leadership they have taken in Congress

in promoting legislation of importance to us. End summary



2. (U) State Department Spokesman Richard Boucher's May 27

statement that "in light of Mr. Rios Montt's background, it

would be difficult to have a cordial relationship" with a

government headed by the former general, were he elected

President, played prominently in the Guatemalan press on May

28-29. Rios Montt responded by telling reporters that he has

no doubt that the United States, as the foremost promoter of

democracy in the world, will uphold the choice of the

Guatemalan people in the upcoming election. He added that he

does not understand why the United States could be worried

about him winning the election, as Americans are generally

firm believers in opinion polls, and the most recent voter

preference polls give him only three percent. In response to

questions during a May 30 press roundtable in Guatemala City,

visiting Acting WHA Assistant Secretary Curt Struble

reiterated Spokesman Boucher's statement without elaboration.

President Portillo has not commented on the statement, and

Vice President Reyes limited himself to saying he had not yet

seen it.



3. (C) Rios Montt's daughter and Second Vice President of

Congress Zury Rios called on the Ambassador on June 2 to

express her disappointment with the U.S. statement. She

believes that the newest statement implies that relations

between the U.S. and a Rios Montt government would be

"unfriendly," which she views as significantly different from

the characterization of "awkward" that had been transmitted

to her privately by Deputy Assistant Secretary Dan Fisk in

November, 2002. She was "shocked and taken aback" by the

"strong" USG statement, particularly in light of the FRG's

consistent and almost single-handed promotion of USG

interests in Congress during these past three years (e.g.

passage of legislation covering money laundering, IPR, labor

rights, asset forfeiture, maritime counternarcotics

cooperation, Mayan Jaguar counter-narcotics exercises, New

Horizons and more). The Ambassador told her that the newest

public statement and earlier private statements were

essentially the same: that, given the history, there is a

political reality beyond our control that would make it

extremely difficult to have the kind of friendly relationship

with Guatemala that we would ideally prefer. Zury Rios

closed by saying that if Rios Montt is elected to the

presidency in November, the U.S. will continue to get "far

better cooperation from the FRG on a full range of issues

than (the USG) would get from any of the other parties."



4. (C) Embassy officers have also received complaints from

Minister of Finance Eduardo Weymann and First Secretary of

Congress Haroldo Quej, who believe the USG position is

"unfair" and unbalanced by not mentioning USG concerns about

other candidates (including human rights concerns in the case

of URNG candidate Rodrigo Asturias, and corruption concerns

in the case of others). Foreign Minister Edgar Gutierrez

told the Ambassador that the FRG bloc in Congress is very

upset ("muy molestos") with us.



5. (C) Private sector leaders, in conversations with the

Ambassador and Embassy Officers on May 30 and June 2, were

elated at the USG statement, and believe that it was

important for the USG to weigh in at a time when Guatemalan

institutions are under pressure from the FRG to allow Rios

Montt to become a candidate in apparent violation of the

constitution. Civil society leaders have also been

supportive, by and large, though nationalistic concerns may

have contributed to keeping their support for the statement

private for now.



6. (U) Public reaction has been relatively muted. Op ed

writers, who typically latch on to matters confronting the

USG with the government and the ruling FRG, have largely

resisted commenting on these latest statements. One paper

gave prominent play to an interview with URNG Congressman

Ricardo Rosales who said it was "unacceptable" for a foreign

government to "interfere" with the electoral process in

Guatemala, arguing that it is up to Guatemalans to decide who

their next president will be.



7. (C) Comment: USG concerns over Rios Montt's presidential

ambitions have long been known by the FRG and its opponents.

Now that the United States view has been placed unambiguously

in the public spotlight, Guatemala's official institutions

that will ultimately have to decide on the constitutionality

of Rios Montt's candidacy will know that their decision will

face international scrutiny. It is too soon to evaluate what

reaction Guatemalan voters will have to USG engagement on the

Rios Montt candidacy. We do not know to what extent FRG

pique will impact on their helpfulness thus far in securing

votes in Congress on issues that are crucial to us (i.e. the

counter-narcotics maritime agreement, which has been driven

by Zury Rios),but we expect cooperation may well be impacted

in areas of legislation of secondary importance.

MCFARLAND