FRG NOMINATES RIOS MONTT FOR PRESIDENT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 001357

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

HARARE FOR BRUCE WHARTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR GT
SUBJECT: FRG NOMINATES RIOS MONTT FOR PRESIDENT

REF: GUATEMALA 1172


1. (SBU) Summary: The ruling Guatemalan Republican Front
(FRG) nominated its founding leader, Efrain Rios Montt, for
President; former Agriculture Minister Edin Barrientos for
Vice President; and corrupt former Minister of Public Works
Luis Rabbe was nominated for Mayor of Guatemala City by a
party conclave on May 24. The selection of Rios Montt does
not ultimately resolve the issue of whether he will be the
FRG standard-bearer, as constitutional challenges are
expected to emerge once the FRG registers his candidacy with
the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. For the moment, however,
Rios Montt's candidacy could help unify a fragmented
opposition. End Summary.


2. (U) At a party assembly on May 24, the ruling FRG
nominated retired General and former de facto head of state
Efrain Rios Montt for President, and Edin Barrientos for Vice
President. Party leaders announced that they will decide by
the end of May when they will officially register their
candidate with the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). The NGO
Center for the Defense of the Constitution (CEDECON) has
already announced that it will challenge the
constitutionality of Rios Montt's eligibility to run for
President, in the event the TSE allows him to register. The
Constitutional Court ruled against Rios Montt's presidential
candidacy in 1990, based on Constitutional Article 186 (a),
which prohibits candidates who attained power through
extra-constitutional means from eligibility to run for
president. The composition of the Constitutional Court has
changed, however, and under Guatemalan law, decisions of the
Constitutional Court are not binding on future decisions.
Rios Montt has assembled a "dream team" of constitutional
lawyers, including former Foreign Minister Gabriel Orellana,
to argue his case. They will argue that the constitutional
principle of non-retroactivity should be applied to this
case, since the Constitution took effect in 1985, after Rios
Montt had been installed by coup d'etat and served as head of
government in 1982-83.


3. (SBU) Edin Barrientos, Rios Montt's running-mate, had
served as Agriculture Minister and previously worked as a
consultant to USAID. The FRG gave prominent billing at its
assembly to Luis Rabbe, the FRG candidate for Mayor of
Guatemala City. Rabbe has been the subject of numerous
lawsuits for his mishandling of state funds while he was
Minister of Public Works.


4. (U) A Prensa Libre-commissioned political opinion poll
published May 27 put GANA coalition presidential nominee
Oscar Berger in front of voter preferences with 39%, followed
by Alvaro Colom of the National Unity of Hope Party (UNE) at
9% and Rios Montt at only 4%; 33% of the 1,200 people
polled nationwide were undecided and 7% said they would not
vote for anyone. The poll was also reported that widespread
confusion over Berger's abandonment of the National
Advancement Party (PAN); 32% believe that Berger is still the
PAN candidate, and the PAN ranked as the highest chance of
winning the elections, with 39%. (Note: Berger left the PAN
after differences with party secretary Leonel Lopez Rodas on
May 1 (RefTel). He now heads the GANA coalition comprised of
the Patriotic Party (PP),the Reform Movement (MR),and the
National Solidarity Party (PSN). End Note.)

Comment
--------------


5. (SBU) The FRG's affirmation of Rios Montt as its
presidential standard-bearer sets the stage for the General
to face constitutional challenges head-on in the five months
remaining before the elections. It shifts the political
focus to the Constitutional Court, which is expected to rule
on his candidacy by the end of June. If challenges are
raised and the court rules in Rios Montt's favor, he will be
free to run. The selection of Barrientos for the vice
presidency helps balance (i.e. improve) the FRG's image with
the electorate, but FRG insiders tell us that Barrientos is
not viewed as a possible substitute for Rios Montt. The more
revealing move, in our view, was the FRG's selection of
notoriously corrupt former Public Works Minister Luis Rabbe
for Mayor.


6. (SBU) The recent poll, commissioned and executed by
anti-government media, is consistent with previous polls
showing the FRG and Rios Montt as also-rans, though we would
warn that polls are often misleading in Guatemala. Berger
cannot be too sanguine about his lead, however, as the polls
also reflect his precipitous drop since entering the race as
the presumptive PAN candidate in October, 2002. (Note: In
1999, Berger also entered the race the favorite, left the PAN
and then returned, and lost in a landslide to the FRG's
Portillo. End Note.) Nevertheless, Berger will benefit from
the FRG's nomination of Rios Montt, which is likely to
polarize the presidential race between FRG and anti-FRG
forces. Berger is attempting to broaden his coalition by
courting the Left, and Rios Montt's long-awaited decision to
run may lead some to overcome their scruples and join with
Berger in the hopes that unifying the opposition is the only
way to defeat Rios Montt.
HAMILTON