PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANT BERGER LEAVES THE PAN,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 001172

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

HARARE FOR BRUCE WHARTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR GT
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANT BERGER LEAVES THE PAN,
ACCEPTS CANDIDACY OF COALITION



1. (SBU) Summary: Presidential front-runner Oscar Berger
announced on May 1 that he was leaving the National Action
Party (PAN) to head a coalition of three smaller parties.
Berger broke with the PAN after internal tensions erupted
April 30 when the PAN Executive Committee (controlled by his
rival Leonel Lopez) voted to no longer support Berger as its
presidential candidate after he discussed forming an
electoral alliance without party permission. Berger,s exit
from the PAN, while not unexpected, adds a new wrinkle to the
already muddled presidential race. As other parties regroup,
the ruling Guatemalan National Front, headed by Efrain Rios
Montt, hopes to benefit from splits in the opposition. End
Summary.

Berger Candidacy Still Afloat
--------------


2. (SBU) Oscar Berger, who won the PAN presidential primary
in October, 2002, announced on May 1 that he would be the
presidential candidate for a coalition of political parties
currently made up of Otto Perez Molina,s Patriotic Party
(PP),Jorge Briz,s Reform Movement (MR) and Ricardo
Castillo Sinebali,s National Solidarity Party (PSN). Berger
had been wooing the coalation ever since differences (largely
over patronage) between him and PAN Executive Secretary
Leonel Lopez became increasingly unsolvable and threatened to
marr the upcoming election. When it became apparent that
there was no conciliation in sight, Berger announced in late
April that he would accept the support of the coalition,
which goes by the initials GANA, provoking the PAN Executive
Committee to announce on April 30 that Berger's decision
effectively annulled his candidacy as the PAN's presidential
hopeful. That was the final straw for Berger, who withdrew
from the PAN and began openly campaigning for the GANA. In a
campaign stop in the Department of Solola on May 3, Berger
rallied local PAN members to vote for him. He received the
support of the local PAN leadership, that has now switched to
his GANA coalition. Berger hopes to woo away significant
support from PAN voters who voted for him in the primaries.

PAN's Prospects Sinking
--------------


3. (SBU) Without Berger, who, despite a massive loss to
President Portillo in 1999 consistently registers the highest
poll numbers, the PAN enters the exclusive control of its
Secretary General, Leonel Lopez Rodas. It was Rodas who lost

SIPDIS
the PAN primary to Berger. After apparently patching things
up, Rodas and his allies strongly objected to Berger,s
naming Gonzalez as his preferred running-mate. Rodas seized
Berger,s discussions about forming an alliance with other
parties (without party approval) as the pretext for his
ouster. Thus far, the PAN has not announced a replacement
candidate for Berger.

Other groups GANA-bound?
--------------


4. (SBU) The GANA coalition is in discussion with other
small parties, including the divided leftist New National
Alliance (ANN),which desperately needs financial support.
The Unionista Party, led by former ministers under the Arzu
Administration who split from the PAN in 2000, is currently
keeping its distance from GANA, though we understand that
there have been serious talks of an ultimate union. Christian
Democratic Party (DCG) candidate Ricardo Bueso has launched a
media blitz to raise his name recognition without much
success, raising speculation that the DCG and its electoral
partner, the Democratic Union party (UD) may also eventually
join the GANA coalition.

Opposition Holdouts
--------------


5. (SBU) Meanwhile, the leftist URNG has pledged to stay
away from alliances this election, after suffering disastrous
results in previous electoral coalitions. Alvaro Colom is
flirting with the PAN, after rejecting the GANA coalition and
the earlier offer of the PAN vice presidential nomination
under Berger. The ANN is considering throwing its support to
Alvaro Colom or Rigoberto Queme, the first indigenous
presidential aspirant heading the Solidarity Movement
alliance of civic committees, which has not yet been
officially registered in the race. Jacobo Arbenz Villanova,
son of the late president ousted by the 1954 U.S.-supported
coup, is another long-shot candidate (for the Democratic
Social Participation Party-PDSP) who has chosen to avoid
electoral alliances.

Boost to the FRG
--------------


6. (SBU) The FRG has the most to gain from the split-up of
the PAN, though many analysts do not believe the large gap in
the polls between Berger and Rios Montt will narrow much as a
result. The ruling FRG,s electoral possibilities could
suffer if the GANA coalition gains further strength by
uniting the opposition. At present the FRG will hold its
national assembly (postponed from May 3 to May 24),at which
it will name its presidential candidate. Conventional wisdom
is that President of Congress Rios Montt will be selected as
its presidential candidate, and Agriculture Minister Edin
Barrientos as his running mate. Should the FRG choose Rios
Montt to head its ticket, we expect there will be challenges
filed before the Constitutional Court.

Comment
--------------


7. (SBU) Berger,s split with the PAN reflects the
institutional weakness of Guatemalan political parties, and
could give a momentary boost to the FRG by dividing the
opposition. The split further reflects the pique and poor
political judgment of both Berger and Lopez Rodas, neither of
whom was prepared to make the concessions on patronage
necessary to keep the party together. Berger and the GANA
coalition have better prospects than the PAN to recover from
this setback, since Berger,s financial supporters apparently
still view him as the most likely prospect to unseat the FRG.
Considerable polling indicates that Berger has better
positive name recognition than anyone else in the PAN party.
Attracting and holding a diverse coalition together, however,
will be difficult for Berger.
HAMILTON