CDU LIKELY TO WIN HESSE ELECTIONS, PERHAPS WITH

UNCLAS FRANKFURT 000682 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV GM SUBJECT: CDU LIKELY TO WIN HESSE ELECTIONS, PERHAPS WITH ABSOLUTE MAJORITY ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Hesse will see a clear victory for Minister-President Roland Koch and the governing CDU-FDP coalition in state elections February 2. All major opinion polls put the CDU ahead of the SPD by up to 18 percentage points. The dramatic erosion of support for the SPD is attributed to continuing voter disillusion with the Schroeder government. On the state level, the SPD's candidate Gerhard Boekel is seen as too colorless a personality to beat Minister-President Koch. The Hesse SPD has started a petition against war in Iraq, led more by campaign managers than Boekel. The Green Party will be a secondary winner, gaining four percent. The FDP will most likely make it over the 5 percent threshold to remain in the State Parliament. End summary. Opinion Polls Put CDU Significantly Ahead -------------- ¶2. (U) Recent opinion polls predict that the CDU will win, possibly with an absolute majority. The CDU has never before won two consecutive elections in Hesse. Compared to its 1999 result (43.4 percent) the CDU may gain three to seven percent. The latter would mean an absolute majority, even with four parties represented in the State Parliament (Landtag). This would be almost unprecedented in postwar German history. The CDU could lose is if the FDP does not make it over the 5 percent threshold and the CDU fails to get an absolute majority. Major polls by Infratest dimap, Forsa and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen predict the possibility of this scenario is shrinking. ¶3. (SBU) The SPD, which received 39.3 percent of the vote in 1999, is on a downward trend. It may lose seven to eight percent according to polls. This would be an unprecedented loss. The Hesse SPD is still in bad shape: it never really recovered from its 1999 defeat. Though its lead candidate Gerhard Boekel has increased in popularity, he is often described by the media as "colorless" in comparison with Koch and not viewed as a strong enough personality to beat the Minister-President. The Greens may win three to four percent above their 1999 election result of 7.2 percent, largely on the issue of opposition to Frankfurt airport expansion. All polls predict the Green party may get its best result ever. (Note: The Hesse Greens are Foreign Minister Fischer's home party.) The FDP will get five percent and may even gain one or two percent. Up to a third of voters say they are still undecided, mostly previous SPD voters. The Iraq Issue -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The Hesse SPD is using the waning days of the campaign to focus on Iraq. Though Boekel hesitates to use the issue aggressively, campaign managers are pushing it. The Hesse SPD is collecting signatures at campaign stands, trying to copy Koch's successful petition campaign in 1999 against dual citizenship. The SPD in north Hesse claims to have collected 40,000 signatures in one day alone. The CDU remains concerned about war in Iraq before February 2. The Hesse CDU's election loss in 1991 is still widely attributed to the Gulf War starting shortly before election day and the subsequent protest vote against the Kohl administration's position. Thus far, polls indicate that continuing voter unhappiness with the Schroeder administration outweighs concerns about Iraq in Hesse's upcoming elections. BODDE