C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000430

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03-13-13
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINS CE NO JA LTTE
SUBJECT: Tigers still seem on board for talks at this
point, but situation remains volatile

Refs: Colombo 421, and previous

(U) Classified by Ambassador E. Ashley Wills.
Reasons 1.5 (b, d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In the aftermath of the sinking of one
of their ships, the Tigers have withdrawn cadre from
areas in the north/east. At this point, they still seem
willing to attend the talks due to be held March 18-21
in Japan. A Norwegian team is in country, trying to
keep things afloat. The situation is volatile, but the
Tigers appear unlikely to break contact. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) TIGERS WITHDRAW PERSONNEL. Reverberations from
the GSL navy's sinking of a Liberation Tigers of Tamil
Eelam (LTTE) ship on March 10 continue to rock the peace
process. (Note: Despite Tiger claims that it was a
"merchant" vessel, the ship was almost certainly
carrying a large quantity of arms when it was
intercepted off Sri Lanka's northeast coast. The ship's
11-member LTTE crew is presumed dead -- see Reftels.)
In an apparent sign of the group's anger over the
incident, the LTTE has ordered its political cadre based
in government-controlled areas of the north and east to
return to the LTTE-controlled Wanni region. Initially,
it was thought that the move was made so cadre could
attend a briefing. Sources in the north and east
report, however, that the move seems much more long-term
based on the fact that the cadre took their office
equipment and furniture with them. The Tigers have not
issued a statement explaining their action, but contacts
believe the group is trying to send a message to the
government that all is not well with the peace process
following the March 10 incident.


3. (SBU) In addition to withdrawing their personnel,
the Tigers are showing their displeasure in other ways.
On March 12, the group sponsored a hartal (strike) in
Jaffna protesting the sinking of the ship. The hartal
closed down shops and schools in the Jaffna area. Black

flags were put up and students put on black armbands.
While it was disruptive, no violence was reported. The
LTTE is also sponsoring a hartal in the major north-
central town of Vavuniya today (March 13).


4. (C) TALKS SEEM TO BE ON. Despite their latest
moves, the Tigers still seem to be planning to
participate in the sixth round of GSL-LTTE talks
scheduled to take place in Japan, March 18-21. In a
March 12 posting, TamilNet, a pro-LTTE website, cited
Tiger chief negotiator Anton Balasingham as stating that
the Tigers were upset with the sinking of the ship, but
still wanted "to participate constructively in the peace
process." Balasingham went on to indicate that the
Tigers would participate in the talks. (Note: In an
interview with BBC, Balasingham seemed a bit testier,
indicating that the Tiger leadership was still examining
whether to attend the talks.)


5. (C) For its part, the government seems relatively
confident that the talks will take place. On March 13,
Ambassador Bernard Goonetilleke, the chief of the
government's Peace Secretariat, told us that as far as
he knew the talks were a "go." He said the Tigers had
just provided the GSL a list of names for their
delegation. (Note: As with previous rounds, the list
includes Balasingham, political chief S.P.
Thamilchelvam, and Karuna, the eastern commander.) In
addition, the LTTE had requested hotel rooms at the
Hakone, Japan, resort where the talks are scheduled to
be held. Goonetilleke allowed that the Tigers could
easily still change their minds (see Para 6 below), but
he thought they would attend the talks "because it was
very much in their interest to discuss the assistance-
related issues that will be on the agenda."
(Note: The sixth round is slated to focus on the
delivery of development assistance, resettlement issues,
human rights, and defense-related matters, inter alia.)


6. (C) NORWEGIAN TEAM ARRIVES. As part of Norway's
ongoing peace facilitation effort, Deputy Foreign
Minister Vidar Helgesen has arrived in Sri Lanka for a
March 12-16 visit. (Note: Foreign Minster Petersen was
supposed to lead the GoN peace facilitation team during
the long-planned visit, but had to cancel because of the
Iraq situation.) The visit has taken on a new sense of
urgency due to the March 10 incident, and Helgesen is
doing his best to ensure that there is no breakdown in
the peace process. His most critical meeting is on
March 13, when he meets with LTTE leader V. Prabhakaran
and Balasingham in the Wanni. According to Ambassador
Goonetilleke, it will be the Helgesen-Prabhakaran
meeting which will determine whether the LTTE will, in
fact, attend the March 18-21 talks and, if so, what will
be on the agenda. While in Sri Lanka, Helgesen is also
scheduled to meet with President Kumaratunga and to
travel to sites in the southern part of the country. He
met with Prime Minister Wickremesinghe on March 12.


7. (C) In the meantime, the Norwegian-run Sri Lanka
Monitoring Mission (SLMM) has also been engaging the
LTTE. New SLMM chief Major General (retd) Tryggve
Teleffsen met with political chief Thamilchelvam on
March 12 in the Wanni town of Kilinochchi. The meeting
focused on ways to avoid a repeat of the March 10
incident. SLMM spokesman Teitur Torklesen told us that
the meeting was "productive."


8. (C) COMMENT: There is little doubt that the LTTE is
in a deeply angry mood. Natural bullies, the Tigers
viscerally dislike coming up with the short end of the
stick in any confrontation. That said, despite some
rumors to the contrary, most observers we have touched
base with believe that the LTTE is unlikely to break
contact over the March 10 incident. The feeling is that
the group has invested a lot in the process and does not
want to let go just yet. The situation is highly
volatile, however, and it still seems possible that a
hard-line response could prevail in Tiger councils, as
it has many times before. END COMMENT.


9. (U) Minimize considered.

WILLS