C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000401

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, DRL; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03-10-13
TAGS: PGOV PINS PHUM ASEC CE NO JA LTTE
SUBJECT: Opposition demonstration stirs concerns about
possible communal attacks on Tamils

Refs: Colombo 387, and previous

(U) Classified by Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b, d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: There are concerns that Tamils may be
subject to communal attacks on the margins of a
demonstration by Opposition elements in Colombo today
(March 10). A letter from the president to the PM
helped spark these concerns. Mission has spoken to
contacts and urged that Tamils be given full protection,
and -- as of late afternoon March 10 -- we have not
heard of any incidents. A renewal of inter-ethnic
violence would seriously undermine the peace process.
END SUMMARY.

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Opposition Demonstration
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2. (U) Key elements of the Opposition are holding a
large demonstration in Colombo today (March 10). The
demonstration is being sponsored by the Sri Lanka
Freedom Party (SLFP), the largest constituent element
within the president's People's Alliance (PA) party, and
the radical Janantha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party. The
small Sinhalese extremist Sihala Urumaya (SU) party is
also participating in the rally.


3. (U) The demonstration has been called by the SLFP
and the JVP to protest against cost of living increases
and the GSL's peace initiative. The SLFP and the JVP
have made a comprehensive effort to turn out a large
crowd, but it is not yet clear how many people plan to
participate. The number should be in the thousands
based on the turnout of previous Opposition rallies held
earlier this year. Police are worried enough by the
potential size of the crowd and the potential for
trouble that some roads are being closed. Parents are
also bringing their children home from school early.

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Concern about Possible Communal Attacks
--------------


4. (C) There are concerns that Tamils may be subject to

communal attacks on the margins of the demonstration.
These concerns were largely sparked by a letter that
President Kumaratunga sent to Prime Minister
Wickremesinghe late March 7. The letter related that
the president had heard that pro-GSL elements were
planning attacks on Tamils, and that there was a plan
afoot to blame any such incidents on the demonstrators
(and thus the Opposition). The letter went on to urge
that the PM look into the reports and put a stop to the
alleged plans. (Note: The letter has not been
released, but the press has reported on its contents and
contacts have told us about it.)


5. (C) Although the president's letter asserts that
GSL supporters would be the source of any problems, word
on the street is that it is the demonstrators themselves
that may try to attack Tamils. It is not clear what the
source of this "street" information is, but the
president's letter seems to be the main source, along
with other (unidentified) reports. In any case, Tamils
have told us they are very worried about the situation,
especially in light of the past history of communal
violence in Colombo. (Note: Colombo has a large Tamil
minority, which has been the victim of communal attacks
many times before. Most notorious was the July 1983
riot in which hundreds of Tamils were killed by
rampaging Sinhalese mobs. The intensification of the
country's ethnic problems into large-scale armed
conflict dates from this riot.)


6. (C) Commenting on the situation, Desmond Fernando, a
well-known, well-connected human rights lawyer, told us
that all the concern was merited. The president's
letter, he felt, seemed to insert a discordant communal
note into the peace process debate. He thought it was
possible that members of her party might be planning to
cause communal problems at the March 10 demonstration or
later. He said he had spoken with the PM, who had
assured him that the government was taking all steps
necessary to protect Tamils and their property.


7. (SBU) (((Note: As of late afternoon March 10,
Mission has heard no reports of anti-Tamil incidents.
The demonstration seems to be large, but orderly, thus
far.)))

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Mission Presses Contacts
--------------


8. (C) In response to the concerns, Mission has
approached contacts in the government and the
Opposition. The Ambassador spoke with Milinda Moragoda,
the Minister of Economic Reforms and a key adviser to
the PM, and urged that the GSL take all steps necessary
to protect Tamils and their property. Moragoda replied
that the GSL was doing this. He noted that he did not
believe that Tamils were in danger and was not worried
about the situation. Polchief also spoke to Harim
Peiris, an assistant to President Kumaratunga. Peiris
said demonstrators had no plans to attack Tamils. That
said, he remarked that it was vital for the government
to ensure that the demonstration was not interfered
with. If it was, there could be some problems between
police and demonstrators. Poloff also spoke to
Norwegian Embassy contact Tomas Stangeland, who
expressed concern about the reports, but said he had no
further information.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Since the advent of the government's peace
initiative in December 2001, we have not heard any
serious rumblings of an anti-Tamil communal nature,
which is why the latest reports are so striking. Thus
far, opponents of the GSL's peace initiative in the
south have been very careful not to make their cause an
anti-Tamil one. That said, the rhetoric of those who
are against the peace initiative is steadily
intensifying. Anura Bandaranaike, a senior PA MP and
the president's brother, for example, was cited last
week as stating that if the Opposition came to power it
would seek an immediate "end" to the peace process.
Certainly, a renewal of inter-ethnic violence would
seriously undermine the peace process. Whether there
are some who want to play such a dangerous game for
political gain is not yet clear, but needs continued
monitoring -- especially given the latest reports and
Sri Lanka's past record of communal violence. END
COMMENT.


10. (U) Minimize considered.

WILLS