C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000039

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS

NSC FOR E. MILLARD

LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01-07-13
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINR CE NO JA TH LTTE
SUBJECT: Peace Process Update: Fourth round of talks
kicks off; PM's address to nation; Japanese FM's visit

Refs: (A) Colombo-SA/INS 01/06/03 Fax

- (B) Oslo 16
- (C) Colombo 14, and previous

(U) Classified by W. Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) This update of Sri Lanka's peace process reviews
the following:

>> Fourth round of GSL-LTTE talks begins in Thailand

>> Muslim leader Hakeem attends talks as part of GSL
team -- and takes other Muslims with him

>> In nationally televised address, Prime Minister
reviews progress of GSL's peace initiative

>> In visit, Foreign Minister Kawaguchi underscores
Japan's support for peace process

--------------
Start of Fourth Round of Talks
--------------


2. (U) The fourth round of Norwegian-facilitated talks
between the Sri Lankan government and the Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) began at a resort hotel in
the Bangkok area on January 6. (Note: The last round of
talks took place in Oslo in early December. The
previous two rounds took place in Thailand in September
and November.) The talks are scheduled to continue
until January 9, with a press briefing slated to take
place on January 10. The first day of talks seems to
have taken place in a cordial atmosphere. Photos and TV
news feed of the brief opening ceremony showed GSL and
LTTE team members standing together and grinning,
apparently in a relaxed mood.


3. (SBU) In a press briefing late January 6, G.L.
Peiris, a senior GSL minister and key negotiator, set an
optimistic tone and related that the first day mainly
involved developing an agenda for the rest of the
discussions. As foreshadowed in Refs B and C, Peiris
stated that the key agenda items were the Sri Lankan
military's "high security zones" in Jaffna and human
rights in LTTE-controlled areas. Before talks wrapped

up on January 6, the two sides had also begun
substantive discussions on humanitarian/resettlement
issues, including prioritization of assistance projects
and how to handle pledges by donors.


4. (C) COMMENT: Entering this round of talks, there
were concerns that the two sides would not hit it off
because of recent disagreements over the Jaffna security
zones (see Ref C). So far, however, it appears that the
government and the Tigers are striving to make things
work. In fact, it's almost as if they want to prove the
peace process skeptics back home wrong. If that spirit
prevails, it seems likely that the Norwegians will be
able to put together a positive joint communique at the
end of the talks, allowing the process as a whole to
maintain its momentum. END COMMENT.

--------------
Muslim Leader Attends Talks, Gains "Advisers"
--------------


5. (SBU) After weeks of confusion, embattled Sri Lanka
Muslim Congress (SLMC) leader (and senior GSL minister)
Raul Hakeem is participating in the Thailand talks as a
member of the government delegation. (Note: Hakeem was
a member of the GSL team at the first three rounds of
talks. He had to leave the third round of talks in Oslo
in December early because a group of party rebels was
threatening to eject him from the SLMC leadership.) In
a new development, three other Muslims have joined
Hakeem in Thailand. The three -- M.L.M. Cader, H.S.
Hasbullah, and M.I.M. Mohiudeen -- are reportedly
serving in an "advisory" capacity and not directly
participating in the talks. (Note: Cader and Hasbullah
are educators, who -- along with Hakeem -- are former
IVP grantees. Mohiuddin is also well-known, having been
involved in Muslim politics in the east for years.)


6. (C) Asked about the addition of the three Muslim
advisers, M.L.A.M. Hizbullah, a senior MP for the Muslim
National Unity Alliance (NUA), told us that Prime
Minister Wickremesinghe, reacting to complaints by other
Muslims, had essentially ordered Hakeem to bring
additional members of the community with him to
Thailand. Hizbullah commented that he and other Muslims
continued to demand that their community be granted
third party status at the talks and not remain part of
the government's team.


7. (C) COMMENT: Although it's a victory of sorts that
he is even in Thailand, Hakeem is clearly struggling
politically. Despite his best efforts, he has
not been able to quell the protests that he is not
attentive enough to the needs of eastern Muslims. In
addition, criticism from his many SLMC opponents
continues to flare. Although he has seemingly gained an
edge in the party leadership battle, both sides are
still heavily involved in litigation and it is not clear
where the chips will fall. In the meantime -- and in
another humbling experience, Hakeem has been forced to
bite the bullet and accept the three advisers. Given
the confluence of events, it seems that Hakeem is well
on the way to being marginalized unless he does
something in short order that halts the erosion in his
support. END COMMENT.

--------------
PM Addresses Nation
--------------


8. (SBU) On the evening of January 5, Prime Minister
Wickremesinghe gave a nationally televised address.
(Note: Ref A contains a text of the speech.) In
essence, the address was of the "State of the Union"-
type in which the PM reviewed what he considered his
coalition's major successes of the past year. Three
major points emerged: First, the PM stated that
the peace process was at a "decisive moment" and that it
was now time to start making a transition to a permanent
peace. Second, he reached out to President Kumaratunga,
urging her to work with him to make peace possible.
Third, the PM used part of the speech to underline the
GSL's commitment to economic growth and reform.


9. (C) The address received mostly favorable press play
in papers the next day. The President's Office and her
People's Alliance party had no immediate comment on the
speech. As could be expected, the radical JVP party
harshly criticized it, asserting that the peace process
was only working in favor of the LTTE. (Note: More
humorously, the JVP also asserted that the PM was wrong
to wear the "kit of George Bush," i.e., a coat and tie,
during the speech, and not local dress.) Asked for his
reaction to the speech, Jehan Perera, the head of the
National Peace Council, a local think-tank, commented
that he thought the speech was constructive in that it
was "conciliatory" toward the president, which was
positive in terms of easing cohabitation strains.


10. (C) COMMENT: Although their peace initiative has
been amazingly successful, one area where the PM and his
government have been criticized is with respect to
public relations. Despite much advice, the PM and his
major advisers have not taken to the airwaves in any
sustained way to explain the peace process and solidify
support for the GSL's efforts. The lack of such an
effort has not been too much of a problem thus far, but
could be in the future if the process hits bumps in the
road. Wickremesinghe's speech seemed to go a way toward
helping plug the public relations gap, but it is still
not clear whether it will be part of a longer-term
effort. END COMMENT.

--------------
Visit of Japanese FM
--------------


11. (SBU) Japanese Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi
visited Sri Lanka, January 5-7. In Colombo, Kawaguchi
met with President Kumaratunga, the Prime Minister, and
Foreign Minister Fernando. She also visited the war-
ravaged Jaffna area. While in Jaffna, she promised
augmented Japanese rehabilitation assistance, including
funding for demining. Noting that it was the first
visit by a Japanese FM to Sri Lanka in 16 years, Koji
Yagi, a Japanese Embassy poloff, told us that the trip
went extremely well. He added that a key area of focus
in GSL-GOJ discussions during the visit involved a
review of modalities for the Sri Lanka donor conference
being hosted by the Japanese government in the June
timeframe.


12. (C) COMMENT: Japan has been trying to play a more
important role in Sri Lanka's peace process for some
time and Kawaguchi's visit fits into that mold. One
aspect of the visit that received significant local
coverage centered on comments by Hatsuhisa Takashima, an
assistant of Kawaguchi's, who was quoted as repeatedly
assuring press conference participants that Kawaguchi
will carefully brief the GoI on the results of her visit
to Sri Lanka (India is her next stop). In very
solicitous remarks, Takashima went on to add that the
GoJ would ask India for its views about an invitation
Special Envoy Yasushi Akashi had received from the LTTE
inviting him to visit areas under its control. (Note:
Per Reftels: According to various sources, the Indian
government has not welcomed Japan's attempts to enhance
its involvement in Sri Lanka-related issues.) END
COMMENT.


13. (U) Minimize considered.

WILLS