C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000274

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/18/13
TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM CE NO JA LTTE
SUBJECT: Playing hardball, Tigers continue to ramp up
the pressure in the north and the east

Refs: (A) Colombo 261; (B) 02 Colombo 1246

(U) Classified by Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In the wake of recent incidents
involving the military, the Tigers continue to ramp up
the pressure in the north and the east by instigating
numerous rallies and general strikes. The GSL and
monitors are working to calm the situation. In a rare
event, recent LTTE activities have put it at odds with a
normally friendly Tamil party. Through their latest
mafia-type activities, the Tigers are clearly sending a
message to the government that it should deal with the
group very, very cautiously. END SUMMARY.

=======================
Ramping Up the Pressure
=======================


2. (C) The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
continue to ramp up the pressure in the north and the
east. Based on the LTTE's public announcements, the
latest activities form the group's hard-line response to
two recent incidents pitting LTTE cadre against the Sri
Lankan military. (Note: The first of these incidents
took place on February 7, and involved the interception
of a LTTE arms resupply boat by the Sri Lankan navy.
The second incident took place on February 12 when the
Sri Lanka Army stopped LTTE cadre in Jaffna and ordered
them not to wear military-type uniforms -- see Reftels.
End Note.) In protesting these incidents, the LTTE has
sponsored the following major demonstrations and general
strikes in the past several days:

-- On February 14, several thousand Tamils marched in
Jaffna town. The march was basically peaceful, but
there were several small clashes with police and the
army. The marchers presented a petition to the local
SLMM office complaining about the military.

-- On February 17, the LTTE called a general strike in
Trincomalee District in the east. Many shops were

forced to close. In addition to the two incidents
reviewed above, demonstrators were also protesting the
arrest of two LTTE cadre allegedly involved in
recruitment in the Trincomalee area. The two cadre were
granted bail later in the day.

-- On February 17, several hundred pro-LTTE
demonstrators marched in Vavuniya, a town in the north-
central part of the country.


3. (C) In addition to these large events, the LTTE has
sponsored smaller anti-government rallies in other parts
of the north and east. In the meantime, according to
contacts, the situation in Jaffna on February 18 is said
to be tense, with the army and the police strongly in
evidence. The LTTE has also announced that it is
sponsoring a general strike in Jaffna District on
February 19. Tamils are being asked to wear black
armbands and to fly black flags during the strike.

(Note: The latest tensions seem to have no direct
relation to an incident on February 16 in which a Sri
Lankan army soldier was killed by LTTE gunfire while
crossing into the group's territory on the Jaffna
Isthmus. The incident appears isolated, with the
soldier apparently acting on his own. The army is
investigating.)

===================================
GSL, Monitors try to Calm Situation
===================================


4. (C) In response to the LTTE's activities, the
government and the Norwegian-run Sri Lanka Monitoring
Mission (SLMM) are working hard to calm the situation.
As touched on in Ref B, the GSL has announced that it is
launching an investigation into the February 12
incident, including reviewing the actions of the army
and the police. As for the monitors, Hagrup Haukland,
the SLMM deputy, told us that the group was meeting with
government and LTTE officials "multiple times every day"
to ensure that both sides understood their
responsibilities under the terms of the February 2002
ceasefire accord. Haukland allowed that the situation
in the north and east was quite tense at this time, but
said he hoped that SLMM efforts would help lower
temperatures soon. Haukland noted that the SLMM had
been able to broker an understanding between the
government and LTTE that Tiger cadre would not wear
military-style belts in government-controlled areas. At
the same time, the GSL had agreed to contact the SLMM to
report alleged Tiger transgressions and not to try to
enforce the understanding on uniforms itself.

==============================
LTTE Tensions with Tamil Party
==============================


5. (C) In a rare event, recent Tiger activities have
put it at odds with a normally friendly Tamil party.
According to contacts, many members of the Tamil United
Liberation Front (TULF), a major constituent element of
the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), are furious with the
LTTE for its successful effort to postpone the reopening
of the Jaffna library planned for February 14 (see
Ref A). Those who are said to be angry with the LTTE
include V. Anandasangaree, the leader of TULF and a
senior TNA MP. Also at odds with the LTTE are the
former mayor of Jaffna and the former TULF members of
the Jaffna Municipal Council, all of whom resigned their
positions on February 13 in reaction to the
postponement. (Note: The resignations were largely
symbolic, as the five-year terms for the mayoral and
municipal council seats run out this week in any case.)
In press statements, Anandasangaree and the other TULF
officials have underlined that they wanted the library
reopened as soon as possible and did not appreciate the
LTTE's strong-arm efforts to cancel the February 14
ceremony. (Note: It is not precisely clear why the
LTTE did not want the library to reopen, but -- in line
with its ongoing protests against the military -- the
group apparently did not want any outward signs of GSL-
Tamil amity at this time.)


6. (C) Commenting on the LTTE-TULF dustup, Kethesh
Loganathan, an analyst at a local think-tank, told us
that he was not sure how serious the split might turn
out to be. He commented that Anandasangaree has always
been considered more independent of the LTTE than some
other Tamil political leaders (also see Ref B on this
point). That said, he thought that Anandasangaree would
be careful not to antagonize the LTTE too much given the
group's reputation for retribution. Loganathan went on
to remark that the LTTE had to be careful to ensure that
it did not alienate Tamil politicians, especially during
the ongoing peace process when it needed to show the
world a more moderate face. (Note: There are reports
that the LTTE has asked major Tamil party leaders to
visit the LTTE-controlled Wanni region later this month
for discussions focused on the peace process.)

=======
COMMENT
=======


7. (C) As reviewed in Reftels, the LTTE has been
steadily expanding its influence in the north and east,
often employing mafia-type tactics of intimidation and
extortion in the process. Through their strong-arm
tactics in Jaffna and elsewhere of late, the Tigers are
clearly sending a message to the government that it
should deal with the group very, very cautiously. It is
not clear how long and how hard the LTTE intends to
press the GSL and the military at this point, but most
observers believe the group does not want to undermine
the peace process. At the same time, the Tigers will
have noticed that they have provoked a bit of a backlash
among Tamils, a development which may or may not cause
the group to back off somewhat. As for the GSL, it is
being very careful not to allow the LTTE to provoke more
incidents. END COMMENT.


8. (U) Minimize considered.
WILLS