In good news for peace process, President puts

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001586 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT, INR/NESA; NSC FOR E. MILLARD E.O. 12958: DECL: 09-11-13 TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR CE SUBJECT: In good news for peace process, President puts possible pact with radical party on hold Refs: Colombo 1583, and previous (U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b,d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: President Kumaratunga has firmly signaled that a possible pact between her party and the radical JVP is on hold for now. In explaining her decision, the president made clear that the two sides could not agree on peace process issues. According to observers, however, other factors, such as domestic politics and international opinion, heavily influenced her decision. The pact idea could clearly be revived, but its absence for now is good news for the UNP governing coalition as it tries to manage difficult peace process issues. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) PACT ON HOLD: President Kumaratunga has put on hold a possible pact between her Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP),the key constituent element of her People's Alliance (PA) grouping, and the radical Janantha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) ("People's Liberation Front") party. The president communicated her views to the JVP leadership at a September 5 meeting held at her office in Colombo (see below). The president's decision effectively closes down, at least for now, months of rolling discussions between high-level SLFP and JVP negotiators which began in early 2003 (See Reftels). The discussions between the two sides had focused on drawing up a written alliance agreement containing policy elements and a plan for joint electoral lists for parliamentary elections. ¶3. (C) PRESIDENT HIGHLIGHTS POLICY DIFFERENCES: The September 5 meeting appears to have been quite contentious. According to corroborated reports, after arriving late at the meeting, the president told the JVP representatives that she had long wanted the two major opposition groupings, the SLFP and the JVP, to align so they could effectively confront the United National Front (UNF) government. She could not, however, agree with aspects of the JVP's comprehensive anti-peace process stance, including the group's refusal to accept constitutional devolution as a possible solution to the ethnic conflict. The president also noted that the JVP's strong stance against third party facilitation and Norway's role went too far for her. Due to these concerns, the president did not foresee completion of a pact in the near-term. At this point, upset with the president's message, the JVP representatives reportedly walked out of the meeting. ¶4. (C) POLITICAL CONCERNS: In making her points to the JVP, the president hit on many themes she has made before regarding a possible pact, some of which she made earlier in the week during the SLFP's national conference. Indeed, since she came to power in late 1994, the president has made clear that she favors a peaceful resolution to the conflict through devolved powers for the north and east. That said, many observers feel that her rejection of the JVP at this time has as much to do with politics as policy. In a September 10 meeting, for example, Taranjit Sandhu, polchief at the Indian High Commission, told polchief that he thought the president was worried that her party would lose political support if it joined with the JVP at this time. Sandhu reasoned that the peace process remained quite popular with the public. Thus, the president, reading the tea leaves, did not want to be firmly linked with the anti-peace process JVP until and unless public opinion shifted toward a more skeptical approach. ¶5. (C) Other observers have told us that they believe that the president was also worried that she would lose the respect of the international community if she entered into a pact with the JVP. Jehan Perera, an analyst at the Center for Policy Alternatives, a local think-tank, told poloff on September 10 that he thought the president cared a great deal for her reputation in the international community. Given the generally bad reviews the possible alliance was receiving, Perera thought that the president was probably worried that linking up with the JVP would hurt her credibility as someone who wants ethnic reconciliation in Sri Lanka. Tomas Stangeland, a Norwegian Embassy poloff, agreed with this view, commenting to polchief on September 9 that the president probably grew concerned that her reputation in international circles would be severely tarnished by association with the Sinhalese chauvinist JVP. ¶6. (C) REVIVAL OF POSSIBLE PACT?: Although the possible pact is on the back burner for now, the president, her supporters, and the JVP have made clear that the idea could be revived. The president, for example, has indicated that she continues to keep the idea of a pact in her back pocket. At the same time, Anura Bandaranaike, the president's brother and a senior SLFP MP who is a strong proponent of a pact, has made clear that he thinks that the idea could still be sealed soon if both sides are prepared to compromise. In the meantime, while its leaders clearly bristled over Kumaratunga's decision to stop the formal discussions, the JVP continues to indicate that it is open to the idea of an alliance. Wimal Weerawanse, a senior JVP MP, has been quoted in the press, for example, as asserting that the JVP still wants a pact and will continue to urge the SLFP to join in an "anti-government front." ¶7. (C) COMMENT: Kumaratunga is a cunning political strategist who likes to surprise. She is also mercurial in temperament. In light of these factors and in the face of the latest soundings, it would not be a complete shock if the pact idea was suddenly revived in short order. That said, there seems little likelihood of the proposal making a comeback soon, which removes some of the haze which has been hanging over the domestic political landscape for months now. That is good news for the UNF government as it tries to manage difficult peace process issues. END COMMENT. ¶8. (U) Minimize considered. LUNSTEAD