C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001339

SIPDIS

NOFORN

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT
NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07-31-13
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINS MOPS CE NO LTTE
SUBJECT: As Tigers continue their review, government's
proposal for north/east garners mixed reaction in south

Refs: Colombo 1330, and previous

(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Charge'd'Affaires.
Reasons 1.5 (b, d).

SUMMARY
=======

1. (C) The Tigers continue to study the GSL's proposal
for establishing an interim structure in the north/east.
In the south, however, the proposal has garnered a mixed
reaction. The president continues to review the
proposal, for example, while the radical JVP party has
harshly criticized it. Muslims have also expressed
concerns. In other news, there are still no firm signs
that the Tigers plan to vacate an unauthorized camp in
the east. While the government is taking some flak re
its proposal, the situation seems politically manageable
for now. END SUMMARY.

=================================
Tigers continue to study proposal
=================================


2. (SBU) The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
organization has announced that it continues to study
the Sri Lankan government's proposal for establishing an
interim administration in the north/east. (Note: For
details of the government's proposal, which was provided
to the LTTE two weeks ago by the Norwegian government
facilitators, see Reftels.) In July 25 remarks, S.P.
Thamilchelvam, the LTTE's political chief, told a large
crowd in the eastern district of Batticaloa that the
Tigers had not yet formulated their response, but were
still studying the government's proposal. Quoted on the
pro-LTTE website "TamilNet," Thamilchelvam said the
proposal had "several shortcomings" and he noted that
the LTTE was drawing up several counter-proposals for
GSL review. He added: "We are prepared to recommence
peace talks if the government accepts our counter-
proposals." (Note: The LTTE pulled out of the talks in
late April.)

3. (C) Queried about the LTTE's reaction, Joseph
Pararajahsingham, a Tamil National Alliance (TNA) MP
with close Tiger links, told us that he understood that
the group was carefully reviewing the GSL's proposal.
He confirmed news reports that the LTTE had convoked a
committee of cadre with legal experience to examine the
proposal. Pararajahsingham said he was not sure when
the LTTE might come back with its counter-proposals, but
he thought it would take some time.

====================
President Mum so far
====================


4. (SBU) Turning to reaction in the south, President
Kumaratunga, who shares a bitter cohabitation
relationship with Prime Minister Wickremesinghe, has not
commented publicly on the proposal as of yet. The
president's office has announced, however, that she is
setting up a committee made up trusted advisers to
review it. Former foreign minister Lakshman Kadirgamar
has been selected to head the committee. (Note: The
Charge' meets with Kadirgamar on August 1 and will ask
for his views on the government's proposal.)


5. (C) When asked about the president's views, Harim
Peiris, one of her press spokesmen, told us that she had
some specific concerns regarding the proposal, but
needed to study it further. Peiris was not clear as to
what these concerns might be, but they are believed to
revolve around the fact that the proposal would give the
LTTE a dominant voice in a north/east interim governing
council. (Note: In a hint that the president may be
leaning against supporting the government's proposal,
several outspoken members of the president's People's
Alliance, "PA," party have already publicly made the
charge that the GSL is being soft on the LTTE.)


6. (SBU) A public fracas has broken out concerning the
status of the draft of the proposal received by the
president from the GSL. When pressed by the president's
supporters, the government admitted that it had
inadvertently provided the president a copy of the
proposal that was an old draft and not the one the
Tigers' received from the Norwegian facilitators. The
president's office only learned of this when the text of
the actual proposal was published in local newspapers.
While the differences in text were quite small, the
government's apparent carelessness served to inflame
cohabitation tensions.

==============
JVP Lashes Out
==============


7. (SBU) In other reaction from the south, the radical
Sinhalese chauvinist Janantha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)
party has come out hard against the government's
proposal. In public remarks made on July 29, Tilvin
Silva, the JVP General Secretary, claimed that the
creation of the proposed interim administration "would
divide the country forever." The proposal also showed
that the government was unwilling to take a firm
position against the LTTE, he said. He added that his
party would oppose the proposal via a wide-ranging
mobilization of its supporters in rallies and marches,
etc., beginning in August.

===============
Muslim Concerns
===============


8. (C) Although at a much lower decibel level than the
JVP, Muslims have also expressed concerns about the
government's proposals. At a July 30 dinner, for
example, Rauf Hakeem, the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress
(SLMC) leader and Minister of Ports, emphasized to the
Charge' the need for Muslims to have a role in running
the east and not be dominated by the LTTE. Hakeem
underscored the suffering of Muslims during the civil
war and their need for security from LTTE intimidation
and attack. Hakeem also noted that he had discussed the
interim administration issue with President Kumaratunga
earlier that day, characterizing the meeting as
"pleasant." (Note: Hakeem is a long-standing political
opponent of the president.) He also provided the
Charge' a document detailing Muslim concerns and
counter-proposals meant to safeguard their interests.
(Note: This text has been forwarded via e-mail to
SA/INS.)

==============================
No sign of change re LTTE Base
==============================


9. (C) In other peace process news, there are still no
firm signs that the Tigers plan to vacate an
unauthorized military base the group has set up in the
east. (Note: Per Reftels, the Sri Lanka Monitoring
Mission, "SLMM," has ruled that the establishment of the
base violated the ceasefire accord.) In a July 31
conversation, Matti Kekki, an action officer in the
Trincomalee office of the SLMM, confirmed that the camp
was still there. Despite some indications that the
Tigers' hard-line stance re holding the camp might be
thawing, Hagrup Haukland, the Colombo-based deputy SLMM
head of mission, told us that the monitors still had not
received any sort of message from the LTTE that it
planned to vacate the site anytime soon. (Note: The
Norwegian government facilitators are also looking into
this situation. The Charge is scheduled to meet with
Norwegian Ambassador Hans Brattskar on August 1 to
review latest developments.)


10. (C/NF) Regarding the base, the Sri Lankan military
publicly announced late July 30 that it had no plans to
attack the LTTE base. The announcement was made to
rebut some recent press reports that claimed that a
military attack was imminent. In discussions with
senior military officials, DATT was also told that the
GSL has no plans to launch any sort of armed attack. He
was informed, however, that the military, at the
direction of political leaders, had been instructed to
look into ways to isolate the camp, so as to make it
difficult for the Tigers to hold.

=======
COMMENT
=======


11. (C) The government has received relatively positive
soundings re its proposal from the LTTE so far. It
appears as if the Tigers are genuinely interested in
following up on the matter. Whether their initial
indication of interest will lead to a new round of peace
talks soon is still up in the air, however. Regarding
the south, while the government is taking some flak on
its interim administration proposal, the situation seems
politically manageable at this point. This is
especially the case when one compares what happened in
the past when similar (if somewhat more fundamental)
proposals were made. In 1987, for example, the Indo-Sri
Lankan accord sparked large-scale violent demonstrations
in the south and President Kumaratunga's proposals for
devolution in 2000 met so much resistance that they were
never brought up for a vote. In that vein, the JVP
seems set on trying to stir things up against the GSL.
The mood of the public, which is still largely pro-
peace, does not seem to offer the JVP much hope that it
can gain real traction, however. END COMMENT.


12. (U) Minimize considered.

ENTWISTLE