Sri Lanka: Peace process poised to enter new

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001143 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS; NSC FOR E. MILLARD E.O. 12958: DECL: 07-01-13 TAGS: PREL PTER PINS NO JA CE LTTE SUBJECT: Sri Lanka: Peace process poised to enter new phase Refs: (A) Oslo 1298, and previous (B) Colombo 1121, and previous (notal) (U) Classified by Donald Camp, Charge d'Affaires. Reasons 1.5 (b, d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: With the prime minister back from a successful visit to the United Kingdom, Sri Lanka's peace process is on the verge of entering a new phase. The Tigers are hinting at a return to talks, while the government is preparing an interim administration proposal. The Liberation Tigers' of Tamil Eelam (LTTE's) political leader Thamilchelvam told the Japanese ambassador on June 30 that the LTTE sought to respond positively. These developments, however, take place in an atmosphere of continued Tiger violence and tension in the south. END SUMMARY. POSITIVE TIGER HINTS -------------- ¶2. (C) Recent actions by the Tigers continue to indicate a possible thaw in their hardline stance towards the government's efforts to resume peace negotiations. As previously reported, June 23 comments by LTTE theoretician Anton Balasingham about a possible resumption of talks followed his London meeting -- the first since Tokyo -- with Norwegian facilitators. Since then, the Tigers have continued to reach out to the international community, finally accepting a Japanese offer to brief them on the Tokyo conference. (Note: Efforts by the Japanese to visit both the Tigers in the Wanni and Balasingham in London immediately following the June 9-10 conference were spurned as the group continued its hardline stance.) On June 30, the Japanese ambassador traveled to the Wanni for a meeting with LTTE political leader S.P. Thamilchelvam. Afterwards, Japanese Embassy contacts described the meeting to poloff as "cordial and constructive." They said Thamilchelvam seemed intent on waiting for the next GSL proposal before agreeing to talks, but that the LTTE was seeking to respond positively. When contacted, a Tamil National Alliance (TNA) parliamentarian in the east, Joseph Pararajasingham, told us that he too felt hopeful about the current situation. ¶3. (C) Meanwhile, the June 27 LTTE-sponsored Pongu Tamil ("Rising Tamil") rally in Jaffna reportedly had fewer participants than originally forecast. Embassy contacts described the event as "placid." Speakers reportedly made no reference to the stalled peace talks. GSL DELIBERATE RE NEXT STEPS -------------- ¶4. (C) In the wake of the prime minister's recent trip to London (June 22-30),the government is drafting a proposal for an interim administration. While in London, the PM and his delegation reportedly consulted with senior British government officials on the legal challenges facing Sri Lanka's reconstruction efforts. Key government minister G.L. Peiris at a June 26 briefing stated the GSL would be offering a new draft proposal by mid-July. In a follow-up comment to poloff, Peiris stressed the proposal was merely the next step of an ongoing process, but one that would require careful deliberation. The GSL's conduct suggests it is putting more work into this current proposal for an interim administration than in previous drafts. (Note: In the lead-up to the early June Tokyo donors conference, the GSL offered draft administration proposals almost daily to the Tigers, who rejected them almost as quickly.) TNA member Pararajasingham said he expected a favorable Tiger response to the GSL's draft proposal. NORWEGIANS REGROUP -------------- ¶5. (C) In a good sign from the peace process facilitators, Norwegian polchief Tomas Stangeland confirmed that former ambassador Jon Westborg has just returned to Sri Lanka as a special envoy to shepherd the peace process while the current ambassador, Hans Brattskar, is out of the country for several weeks. Norwegians and LTTE reports speculate that the Norwegians could schedule a GSL-Tiger meeting sometime in August or September, with Switzerland as a possible venue. LTTE-INVOLVED KILLINGS CONTINUE -------------- ¶6. (C) Meanwhile, tensions in the South and the Tamil community continued to mount over increased LTTE violence. The Tigers are alleged to be responsible for the killing of a former member of an anti-LTTE political party on June 27, in addition to an unsuccessful attempt to storm a prison and release a fellow cadre detained on murder charges. Both incidents took place in the east. (Note: These incidents follow the previously reported killings of a highly-respected counterterrorism police officer in Colombo on June 23 and an anti-LTTE Tamil politician in Jaffna on June 14, both with the hallmarks of a Tiger hit.) Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapakse and key presidental confidant Lakshman Kadirgamar called attention to these killings during conversations with Charge on June 26 and 27. Both men spoke of their growing distrust for the Tigers, even as they stressed that no one supported a return to violence. ¶7. (C) The tension continued as increased security in Colombo was apparent over the June 28-29 weekend. While press reports detailed the detention of "hundreds of Tamils," police contacts have told us that most have been released, with only a small number of individuals being held for interrogation. Interior Minister John Amaratunga, during a June 30 meeting with Charge, characterized the Tiger activity as "isolated incidents," and said that increased security measures were temporary. MONITORING MISSION REPORTS ON SHIP SINKING -------------- ¶8. (C) The Norwegian-led Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) on June 27 released its report on the June 14 sinking of a suspected LTTE arms vessel off Mullativu. The SLMM said that neither party violated the ceasefire agreement and the GSL was within its rights in challenging the ship. It said the LTTE ship was in violation of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea by not flying "an appropriate flag, and official, visible identification." The report urges both parties to contact the SLMM more promptly in the future, and lays the burden of reaching an agreement preventing future sea clashes "as soon as possible" on the GSL and LTTE. Both sides have received the report without comment, with the entire SLMM report being posted on the pro-LTTE website, TamilNet. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) The recent comments by both the GSL and the Tigers point to positive signs on the surface for a resumption of peace process talks. Underneath, however, the Tigers' continued violence and the government's security measures indicate each are wary of being too optimistic. Despite all the undercurrents, the prospect for restarting face-to-face negotiations is the most hopeful since the early June conference in Tokyo. END COMMENT. CAMP