ARGENTINA: KIRCHNER TAKES OFFICE WITH PREDICTABLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BUENOS AIRES 001747 STATE FOR WHA AND WHA/BSC PASS NSC FOR HUGO LLORENS, JOANNA WALLACE AND JASON SINGER PASS FED BOARD OF GOVERNORS FOR PATRICE ROBITAILLE EX-IM BANK FOR MICHELE WILKINS TREASURY FOR IA NANCY LEE, HEIDI CRUZ, BILL BLOCK, JAMES JOHN AND RAMIN TOLUI, AND FOR OCC CARLOS HERNANDEZ USDOC FOR ALEXANDER PEACHER USDOL FOR ILAB PAULA CHURCH USCINCSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2013 TAGS: PGOV MARR PREL AR CU SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: KIRCHNER TAKES OFFICE WITH PREDICTABLE SPEECH BUT PURGES MILITARY LEADERSHIP REF: A. BUENOS AIRES 1704 ¶B. BUENOS AIRES 1662 CLASSIFIED BY: POLITICAL COUNSELOR MICHAEL MATERA. REASON 1.5 (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: NESTOR KIRCHNER'S MAY 25 INAUGURAL ADDRESS WAS CONSISTENT WITH HIS CAMPAIGN MESSAGES ADVOCATING A GREATER STATE ROLE IN THE ECONOMY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MAINTAINING FISCAL DISCIPLINE. HE REPEATED HIS CAMPAIGN PROMISE TO GIVE PROMINENCE OF PLACE TO ARGENTINA'S RELATIONS WITH OTHER LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES, BEGINNING WITH MERCOSUR. THE MODERATE TONE OF THE SPEECH WAS IN SHARP CONTRAST TO HIS FIRST REAL ACTION AS PRESIDENT, IN WHICH HE NAMED A GENERAL SERVING IN SANTA CRUZ PROVINCE TO HEAD THE ARMY, A MOVE WHICH, ACCORDING TO MILITARY NORMS OF PROMOTION, WILL MEAN THE DISMISSAL OF CLOSE TO HALF OF THE GENERALS IN THE ARMY. IN THE AIR FORCE AND NAVY, KIRCHNER INTENDS TO PROMOTE JUNIOR FLAG OFFICERS AS SERVICE CHIEFS AS WELL, WHICH WILL ALSO PRODUCE MASS DISMISSALS IN THOSE SERVICES. MEMBERS OF THE KIRCHNER ADMINISTRATION ALSO HINTED THAT THEY WOULD NOT STAND IN THE WAY OF CONGRESSIONAL EFFORTS TO IMPEACH THE MEMBERS OF THE SUPREME COURT, AN ANNOUNCEMENT WOULD COULD LEAD TO CONTINUED FIGHTING AMONG THE BRANCHES OF GOVERNMENT REMINISCENT OF THAT WHICH TOOK PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DUHALDE ADMINISTRATION. FIDEL CASTRO'S VISIT TO BUENOS AIRES FOR THE INAUGURATION PROMPTED LARGE GATHERINGS AND AN OUTPOURING OF PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THE CUBAN LEADER. IN A PRESS INTERVIEW, FOREIGN MINISTER BIELSA REFUSED TO CRITICIZE CASTRO'S RECORD ON HUMAN RIGHTS IN CUBA, CLAIMING THAT SUCH A CRITICISM WOULD BE "SUPERFICIAL." FINALLY, BIELSA CLAIMED THAT KIRCHNER WOULD VISIT WASHINGTON ON AN OFFICIAL VISIT "WITHIN 90 DAYS" AND FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE (1995) JOSE OCTAVIO BORDON WAS NAMED THE NEW ARGENTINE AMBASSADOR TO THE UNITED STATES. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) NESTOR KIRCHNER'S INAUGURAL ADDRESS ON SUNDAY, MAY 25 WAS CONSISTENT WITH MANY OF THE THEMES OUTLINED DURING HIS PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN (REF A) AND PRODUCED NO SURPRISES. THE MODERATE TONE OF THE ADDRESS WAS FAIRLY WELL-RECEIVED ACROSS THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM HERE, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THOSE POLITICAL FORCES LOYAL TO DEFEATED RIVAL CANDIDATES CARLOS MENEM AND ADOLFO RODRIGUEZ SAA. ONE OF KIRCHNER'S MOST FREQUENT THEMES WAS HIS CALL FOR A "SERIOUS" ADMINISTRATION, ONE CHARACTERIZED MORE BY "DAY-TO-DAY WORK" RATHER THAN "GRANDIOSE" ANNOUNCEMENTS OR PLANS. A FEW POINTS FROM THE SPEECH FOLLOW. ¶3. (U) GREATER ROLE FOR THE STATE IN THE ECONOMY. KIRCHNER DEFENDED HIS CALL FOR A "NATIONAL CAPITALISM" (I.E., STRONGER GOVERNMENTAL REGULATION, PROTECTING VULNERABLE MEMBERS OF SOCIETY, INCREASED PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE WORKS AS MEANS OF EMPLOYMENT),AS OPPOSED TO "THE MODEL OF PERMANENT SPENDING CUTS," SAYING, "IT IS ENOUGH TO SEE HOW THE MOST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES PROTECT THEIR PRODUCERS, THEIR INDUSTRIES, AND THEIR WORKERS." PREDICTING THAT HIS GOVERNMENT'S EMPHASIS ON PUBLIC WORKS PROJECTS WOULD PROVE WRONG "NEOLIBERAL" CREEDS CRITICAL OF UNPRODUCTIVE PUBLIC SPENDING, HE ASSERTED, "WE ARE NOT INVENTING ANYTHING NEW; THE UNITED STATES IN THE 1930S OVERCAME THE DEEPEST ECONOMIC CRISIS OF THE CENTURY IN THAT WAY." ¶4. (U) FISCAL BALANCE KEY. DESPITE THE EMPHASIS ON KEYNESIAN-TYPE GOVERNMENT SPENDING, HE EMPHASIZED THAT MAINTAINING BALANCE IN THE PUBLIC-SECTOR FISCAL ACCOUNTS -- BOTH AT THE NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL LEVELS -- WOULD BE "FUNDAMENTAL." HE CONTINUED, "THE COUNTRY CANNOT CONTINUE COVERING DEFICITS WITH PERMANENT INDEBTEDNESS NOR WITH UNCONTROLLED MONEY CREATION." ON THE REVENUE SIDE, HE REITERATED CALLS FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE TAX SYSTEM, LOWER TAX RATES AS COLLECTION IMPROVED, AND STRONGER PROSECUTION OF TAX EVASION. HE ALSO PLEDGED TO PURSUE A NEW PROVINCIAL REVENUE-SHARING ARRANGEMENT THAT WOULD NOT ONLY IMPLY "NEW DISTRIBUTION AND NEW RESPONSIBILITIES" BUT A "NEW MODEL OF THE COUNTRY" AS WELL. ¶5. (U) FOREIGN POLICY: FIRST, LATIN AMERICA. HE REITERATED HIS WELL-WORN THEME THAT ARGENTINA'S TOP FOREIGN POLICY PRIORITY WOULD BE STRENGTHENING TIES WITH LATIN AMERICA, BEGINNING WITH MERCOSUR. DISCARDING ANY TYPE OF "AUTOMATIC ALIGNMENT" WITH THE UNITED STATES, HE STRESSED HIS DESIRE FOR "A SERIOUS, BROAD, AND MATURE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE UNITED STATES AND THE EUROPEAN UNION." HE ALSO PLEDGED THAT HIS ADMINISTRATION WOULD COOPERATE FULLY IN THE FIGHT AGAINST TERRORISM. -------------- FIRST STEP: MASS DISMISSALS IN THE MILITARY -------------- ¶6. (U) IN CONTRAST TO THE MODERATE IMAGE PRESENTED IN THE INAUGURAL SPEECH, THE KIRCHNER TEAM SURPRISED ALL OBSERVERS HERE BY ANNOUNCING OVER THE INAUGURAL WEEKEND A MASSIVE OVERHAUL OF THE MILITARY LEADERSHIP. KIRCHNER'S DESIRE TO PUT GEN. ROBERTO BENDINI, COMMANDER OF THE XI MECHANIZED DIVISION IN RIO GALLEGOS, SANTA CRUZ PROVINCE (WHERE KIRCHNER SERVED AS GOVERNOR FOR MORE THAN A DECADE),IN CHARGE OF THE ARMY APPEARS THE PRIMARY CAUSE OF THE SHAKEUP. DEFENSE MINISTER JOSE PAMPURO, FOR HIS PART, PUBLICLY ACKNOWLEDGED THAT KIRCHNER WANTED A CLOSE CONFIDANT AS ARMY CHIEF. GIVEN THAT BENDINI WAS 28TH ON THE ARMY LEADERSHIP SUCCESSION LIST, HIS REPLACEMENT OF CURRENT ARMY HEAD RICARDO BRINZONI WOULD HAVE MEANT, ACCORDING TO A STRICT INTERPRETATION OF MILITARY PROMOTION NORMS, THE RETIREMENT OF 27 ARMY GENERALS (75 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL). PRESS REPORTS, HOWEVER, INDICATE THAT BENDINI -- WHO WILL FORMALLY TAKE OVER THE ARMY LEADERSHIP TODAY, MAY 28 -- WILL ASK EIGHT ARMY GENERALS FORMERLY AHEAD OF HIM ON THE PROMOTION LIST TO REMAIN IN THE SERVICE, WHICH WOULD MEAN THAT "ONLY" 19 ARMY GENERALS WOULD BE RETIRED. AT THIS POINT, IT IS UNKNOWN IF KIRCHNER WILL ACCEPT THIS PROPOSAL. ¶7. (U) THE OTHER SERVICES FACE SIMILAR RETIREMENTS BASED ON KIRCHNER'S SELECTION OF JUNIOR FLAG OFFICERS TO BECOME SERVICE CHIEFS (E.G., 13 NAVY ADMIRALS, OR 50 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL, AND 12 AIR FORCE GENERALS, ALSO 50 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL, WILL APPARENTLY BE FORCED INTO RETIREMENT.) ALL OF THOSE RETIRING WILL BE REPLACED BY THOSE WITH PAST TIES TO THE PROVINCE OF SANTA CRUZ AND KIRCHNER. ON MAY 30, JORGE ALBERTO CHEVALLIER WILL TAKE OVER AS CHAIRMAN OF THE JOINT CHIEFS, A POST CURRENTLY HELD BY JUAN CARLOS MUGNOLO. ON JUNE 4, CARLOS ROHDE WILL TAKE CHARGE OF THE AIR FORCE, REPLACING WALTER BARBERO. THE FOLLOWING DAY, JORGE GODOY WILL REPLACE JOAQUIN STELLA AS THE HEAD OF THE NAVY. ¶8. (C) LOCAL MILITARY EXPERT ROSENDO FRAGA SUMMARIZED THE WIDESPREAD SENTIMENT OVER THE UNEXPECTED MOVES, ACKNOWLEDGING THAT KIRCHNER HAD THE CONSTITUTIONAL AUTHORITY TO MAKE THE CHANGES, BUT ARGUING THAT THE PURGE DID NOT MAKE MUCH SENSE FOR A NEW PRESIDENT TRYING TO ENSURE INSTITUTIONAL CONTINUITY. IN GENERAL BRINZONI'S PARTING ADDRESS TO THE ARMY ON MAY 28, HE AFFIRMED THE ARMY'S COMMITMENT TO UPHOLDING THE CONSTITUTION AND ARGENTINE LAW, BUT ADMITTED, "THIS DISMISSAL HURTS, NOT FOR PERSONAL REASONS, BUT RATHER, FOR THE UNEXPLAINED CIRCUMSTANCES SURROUNDING IT." THE MOST IMPORTANT REASON FOR THE NEW APPOINTMENTS APPEARS TO BE KIRCHNER'S DESIRE TO HAVE PEOPLE HE KNOWS WELL AND TRUSTS IN THE LEADERSHIP OF THE ARMED SERVICES. OTHER SPECULATION IS THAT HE AND SOME OF HIS MORE LEFTIST LEANING ALLIES IN THE NEW GOVERNMENT ARE USING THIS MASS DISMISSAL TO REMOVE ALL OF THE MOST SENIOR MILITARY OFFICERS WHO POTENTIALLY HAVE ANY INVOLVEMENT IN THE 1976-83 "PROCESO" PERIOD OF MILITARY DICTATORSHIP. (COMMENT: LEFT-LEANING HUMAN RIGHTS NGOS HAVE OFTEN ACCUSED MEMBERS OF THE SENIOR MILITARY LEADERSHIP OF HAVING PLAYED ACTIVE ROLES IN "EL PROCESO" BUT WHEN PRESSED TO PROVIDE EVIDENCE HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO SUBSTANTIATE THEIR ALLEGATIONS. IN ADDITION, ALL MILITARY PROMOTION LISTS ARE SUBJECT TO STRICT CONGRESSIONAL SCRUTINY, WHICH PRESUMABLY WOULD HAVE EXPOSED ANY CREDIBLE EVIDENCE OF WRONGDOING. END COMMENT). -------------- NEXT TARGET: THE SUPREME COURT -------------- ¶9. (C) THE NEW ADMINISTRATION'S ZEAL FOR CHANGE DOES NOT END WITH THE ARMED FORCES, BUT APPARENTLY INCLUDES THE SUPREME COURT AS WELL. KIRCHNER'S NEW MINISTER OF JUSTICE, GUSTAVO BELIZ, SAID ON HIS FIRST DAY IN OFFICE THAT THE SUPREME COURT SHOULD NOT ESCAPE "THE NECESSARY RENOVATION OF ALL THE POWERS OF THE STATE." HE WAS QUICK TO ADD THAT THE ADMINISTRATION WOULD STRICTLY ADHERE TO CONSTITUTIONAL PROCEDURES IN THIS AREA. (OF COURSE, THE CONSTITUTIONALITY OF IMPEACHING THE MEMBERS OF THE COURT HAS NOT BEEN THE CENTRAL QUESTION OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS, BUT RATHER, THE ADVISABILITY OF SUCH AN EFFORT.) THE MEMBERS OF THE SUPREME COURT FACED A DUHALDE-INSPIRED IMPEACHMENT VOTE IN THE CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES LAST YEAR, AN INSTITUTIONAL TIT-FOR-TAT THAT CAUSED THE COURT TO RULE ON REPEATED OCCASIONS AGAINST THE DUHALDE ADMINISTRATION'S ECONOMIC POLICIES. IN THE FACE OF THOSE COURT DECISIONS, THE DUHALDE ADMINISTRATION ULTIMATELY BACKED DOWN, BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE KIRCHNER TEAM IS NOW SIGNALING ITS WILLINGNESS TO DO BATTLE WITH THE COURT AGAIN. IN FACT, AS NOTED IN REF B, KIRCHNER'S NEW INTELLIGENCE CHIEF AND CONFIDANT SERGIO ACEVEDO PRESIDED OVER THE IMPEACHMENT EFFORT AGAINST THE MEMBERS OF THE COURT DURING THE DUHALDE ADMINISTRATION FROM HIS POST AS CHAIRMAN OF THE IMPEACHMENT COMMITTEE OF THE CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES. OF THE NINE MEMBERS OF THE SUPREME COURT, ONLY CHIEF JUSTICE NAZARENO AND THE DUHALDE-APPOINTED JUSTICE JUAN CARLOS MAQUEDA ATTENDED KIRCHNER'S INAUGURATION CEREMONY, A CLEAR SIGN OF DISAPPROVAL BY THE MEMBERS OF THE COURT. ¶10. (U) THE FIRST TARGET REPORTEDLY WILL BE JUSTICE CARLOS FAYT, WHO DID NOT RECUSE HIMSELF FROM PARTICIPATING IN A 2002 COURT DECISION THAT DECLARED UNCONSTITUTIONAL THE GOA'S "CORRALITO" BANK DEPOSIT RESTRICTIONS, DESPITE HOLDING A USD 200,000 DEPOSIT IN BANCO NACION THAT HE LATER EXCHANGED FOR BODEN BONDS. THERE IS WIDESPREAD SPECULATION THAT THE LOWER HOUSE COULD SEEK FAYT'S SUSPENSION AS EARLY AS THIS MONTH WHILE PURSUING THE IMPEACHMENT CASE AGAINST HIM, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DEBATE OVER WHETHER THE AUTHORITY TO TEMPORARY SUSPEND A JUDGE FACING IMPEACHMENT RESTS WITH THE SENATE OR THE CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES. IF THOSE DEPUTIES LOYAL TO THE KIRCHNER ADMINISTRATION SUCCEED IN IMPEACHING FAYT, THEY ALMOST CERTAINLY WOULD SEEK TO DO THE SAME WITH THE MEMBERS OF MENEM'S SO-CALLED "AUTOMATIC MAJORITY": JULIO NAZARENO, ANTONIO BOGGIANO, GUSTAVO LOPEZ, ADOLFO VAZQUEZ, AND EDUARDO MOLINE O'CONNOR. -------------- CASTRO GRABS HEADLINES -------------- ¶11. (U) THE VISIT OF FIDEL CASTRO TO ARGENTINA FOR THE MAY 25 INAUGURATION CAPTURED WIDESPREAD MEDIA AND PUBLIC ATTENTION, WITH THE OVERWHELMING PUBLIC SENTIMENT CLEARLY FAVORABLY DISPOSED TO THE CUBAN LEADER. CASTRO'S VISIT COMPLETELY OVERSHADOWED THOSE OF BRAZILIAN PRESIDENT LULA AND VENEZUELAN PRESIDENT CHAVEZ. THE TRIP WAS CASTRO'S THIRD VISIT TO ARGENTINA, FOLLOWING EARLIER TRIPS IN 1959 (SHORTLY AFTER THE REVOLUTION) AND 1995 (DURING THE MENEM ADMINISTRATION TO ATTEND THE IBERO-AMERICAN SUMMIT IN BARILOCHE). NEWSPAPERS CARRIED PHOTOS OF A BEAMING KIRCHNER LAUGHING AND CONVERSING WITH CASTRO AND THE TWO HAD THE LONGEST OF THE FORMER'S MEETINGS WITH VISITING HEADS OF STATE. ON MONDAY MAY 26, CASTRO DELIVERED A TWO-HOUR-PLUS SPEECH ON THE OUTSIDE STEPS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF BUENOS AIRES LAW FACULTY BEFORE 5,000 ENTHUSIASTIC SUPPORTERS. AT ANOTHER EVENT THE SAME DAY, BUENOS AIRES CITY MAYOR ANIBAL IBARRA PINNED A MEDAL ON CASTRO'S CHEST AND DESCRIBED HIM AS "ONE OF THE MOST RESPECTED MEN IN THE WORLD." THE FOLLOWING DAY, A SPANISH DAILY PUBLISHED AN INTERVIEW WITH FOREIGN MINISTER RAFAEL BIELSA, WHO SAID: "I DO NOT DARE TO SAY OPENLY THAT HUMAN RIGHTS ARE BEING VIOLATED IN CUBA. I DO NOT HAVE THE MORAL AUTHORITY, NOR A POST WHICH WOULD ALLOW ME TO SAY SOMETHING SO SUPERFICIAL." -------------- GOA SAYS KIRCHNER-BUSH TO MEET IN 90 DAYS -------------- ¶12. (U) NEWSPAPER HEADLINES ON MAY 27 TRUMPETED GOVERNMENT DECLARATIONS THAT KIRCHNER WOULD VISIT WASHINGTON ON AN OFFICIAL VISIT WITHIN 90 DAYS, FOLLOWING PUBLIC CONFIRMATION BY THE FOREIGN MINISTER THAT PRESIDENT BUSH, IN HIS MAY 23 PHONE CONVERSATION WITH KIRCHNER, HAD INVITED THE NEW PRESIDENT TO VISIT WASHINGTON. IN A CONFUSED STATEMENT ON MAY 26, FOREIGN MINISTER BIELSA, EXPLAINED THAT KIRCHNER WAS TRAVELING TO WASHINGTON BECAUSE "ARGENTINA HAD TO DISCUSS ISSUES THAT ARE VERY IMPORTANT, SUCH AS IN THE DISPUTE RESOLUTION ORGANIZATION THAT THE WORLD BANK HAS, AND IN THE MULTILATERAL CREDIT ORGANIZATIONS AND THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. THERE, THE VOICE OF THE UNITED STATES IS VERY IMPORTANT." THESE GOA DECLARATIONS CAME ABOUT DESPITE THE FACT THAT A SPECIFIC TIMETABLE FOR A KIRCHNER VISIT TO WASHINGTON WAS NOT BROACHED IN SECRETARY MARTINEZ'S OFFICIAL MEETINGS WITH KIRCHNER. ¶13. (U) IN OTHER NEWS OF IMMEDIATE BILATERAL INTEREST, JOS OCTAVIO BORDN WAS TAPPED BY THE INCOMING ADMINISTRATION AS ARGENTINA'S NEW AMBASSADOR TO THE UNITED STATES. THE APPOINTMENT OF THE WELL-RESPECTED BORDN -- THE 1995 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE AND LATER, FREPASO LEADER -- IS A POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT, DESPITE THE FACT THAT BORDN DOES NOT HAVE A PARTICULARLY STRONG RELATIONSHIP WITH KIRCHNER. OTHER SIGNIFICANT APPOINTMENTS INCLUDE JUAN PABLO LOHLE AS THE NEW AMBASSADOR TO BRASILIA AND JORGE VAZQUEZ AS THE NEW AMBASSADOR TO THE OAS AND JORGE TAIANA AS THE NEW MFA UNDER SECRETARY FOR FOREIGN RELATIONS (REPLACING FERNANDO PETRELLA). DRUCKER