ANKARA MEDIA REACTION REPORT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 000881 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EUR/SE, EUR/PD, NEA/PD, DRL JCS PASS J-5/CDR S. WRIGHT E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR TU SUBJECT: ANKARA MEDIA REACTION REPORT TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 4, 2003 THIS REPORT WILL PRESENT A TURKISH PRESS SUMMARY UNDER THREE THEMES: HEADLINES BRIEFING EDITORIAL OPINION -------------- HEADLINES MASS APPEAL Turkey, U.S. agreement on Mosul, Kirkuk - Hurriyet Critical day: Powell to disclose evidence against Iraq - Turkiye 120,000 Turkish troops to Northern Iraq to halt refugees - Sabah U.S. troops to Iraq via Iskenderun - Aksam Peace hopes diminishing - Vatan Baykal warns Gul: Kurdish state must be prevented - Milliyet OPINION MAKERS Nuclear threat to Baghdad - Radikal Government to handle war authorization after Sacrifice Holiday - Zaman Oil prices will soar if U.S. attacks - Yeni Safak In war, U.S. will save oil wells first - Cumhuriyet FINANCIAL JOURNALS Central Bank: Turkey needs 2.5 year for full stability - Dunya Inflation on the rise - Finansal Forum BRIEFING Iraq: Prime Minister Gul reportedly told opposition party CHP leader Baykal on Monday that the government would allow 350 warplanes and 40,000 U.S. troops on Turkish territory. Gul said the issue would be discussed in the parliament right after the U.S. presents evidence against Iraq to the UNSC on February 5. Gul emphasized that U.S. offers for reparation of Turkey's losses were `satisfactory,' according to the reports. Many AKP deputies are against a war, and the government is exerting an effort to convince them to approve the presence of foreign troops in Turkey. "Aksam" says that Gul has assured Baykal that U.S. troops will only be given transit passage to Northern Iraq via Turkey's Iskenderun harbor. "Sabah" reports that Turkey will send to Northern Iraq about 120,000 troops as a `preventive measure.' "Hurriyet" reports that Turkey, the U.S., and the Northern Iraqi Kurdish groups have worked out an understanding regarding Mosul and Kirkuk. According to the report, Turkish and Kurdish troops will not enter Mosul and Kirkuk, the security in that area will be guaranteed by the U.S., and Turkey will have the right to intervene if the Kurds attempt to occupy the area. "Milliyet" on the new U.S. envoy to Turkey: "Milliyet" evaluates a recent NYT story that U.S. Ambassador to Ankara, Robert Pearson, will be replaced by Vice President Cheney's advisor Eric Edelman. The paper criticizes Ambassador Pearson for denying a Milliyet report accusing the U.S. of carrying out secret meetings with PKK leaders in Northern Iraq. The paper denounces former and current U.S. envoys for launching covert threats to Turkey, and expects the new ambassador to establish good ties with the Turkish government on the basis of mutual interest. Cyprus: Papers carry UK Cyprus envoy Sir Michael Hannay's warning that a failure to compromise on Cyprus will have a negative impact on Turkey's EU drive. Following his meetings at the MFA on Monday, Sir Hannay pointed to the limited time for substantive changes to the Annan plan, and added that he has seen signs of compromise on the Greek Cypriot side. Hannay noted that once the Greek Cypriots gain full EU membership, it will be more difficult to reach an agreement that is acceptable to the Turkish side. He complained about Denktas' efforts to block the discussion of land issues. Sir Hannay believes the issue of Turkish troops on the island should be discussed with the Turkish government. Economy: The wholesale price inflation figure for January was 5.6 percent, and consumer price inflation was 2.6 percent, marking unexpected increases in the annual inflation rates to 32.6 percent and 26.4 percent respectively. Reports claim that the increase in inflation for the first time in 12 months has been caused by the government's indecisiveness and excessive spending. Dailies call attention to the 40,000 workers who have lost their jobs in the banking sector. 15,000 of the workers have applied for just 10 new vacancies at Garanti Bank. Meanwhile, the Turkish Aerospace Industry (TAI) will complete production of 30 Cougar AS-532 helicopters in February, according to press reports. EDITORIAL OPINION: Iraq "For the sake of a lame-duck dictator" Editor-in-Chief Ertugrul Ozkok opined in mass appeal Hurriyet (2/4): "Saddam Hussein is a `de facto' lame duck even as we speak. It will be a miracle if Iraq shows bravery in the war. Turkey should make its plans based on real politics and stay away from conventional or old- fashioned stances. Turkey is a genuine force in this region and has to have a say in its reshaping. Any policy that might dilute Turkey's role and influence in the reshaping process will be costly for Turkey. . Let's all brain-storm a little: What would Turkey actually prefer in northern Iraq? Turkish soldiers meeting US forces in northern Iraq, or Turkish soldiers meeting Saddam's forces there? In which option will Turkey face a lesser possibility of refugees? You don't have to be a military strategist to provide answers to these questions. Turkey should not be engaged in a war, but should allow American troops and equipment to pass through the country. Turkish policy cannot be formulated based on the interests of a lame-duck dictator." "The calendar " Sami Kohen wrote in mass appeal Milliyet (4/4): "The upcoming war is becoming more apparent every day. It is inevitable as well as imminent. . The northern front seems to be the best option, and it is also the US's preference. Yet the US is determined to open a northern front in any case with or without the help of Turkey. In the absence of Turkey's permission, US and UK troops will go ahead through alternate channels to provide a dual front: one from the north and one from the south. . Ankara tries to adjust the `war calendar' based on its own interests, yet the fact of the matter is that there is very little we can do about it. Turkey is trapped between anti-war public opinion and problems related with war, and the reality of the war, which is imminent. . At the current stage, the argument that we should stay completely out of it is neither realistic nor pragmatic. The government will have to seek the parliament's approval for the modernization of bases, the transit movement of US troops, and the movement of Turkish troops to northern Iraq. It is only a matter of timing, and we better be catching up with the real calendar - that is, the deadline, which is February 14." PEARSON