ANKARA MEDIA REACTION REPORT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 000783 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EUR/SE, EUR/PD, NEA/PD, DRL JCS PASS J-5/CDR S. WRIGHT E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR TU SUBJECT: ANKARA MEDIA REACTION REPORT THURSDAY, JANUARY 30, 2003 THIS REPORT WILL PRESENT A TURKISH PRESS SUMMARY UNDER THREE THEMES: HEADLINES BRIEFING EDITORIAL OPINION -------------- HEADLINES MASS APPEALS War at doorstep: Bush gives Saddam a week - Sabah World leaders to Bush: Let's see the evidence - Milliyet War scenarios at NSC - Hurriyet A-bombs in Incirlik - Aksam Bush says `War' - Turkiye Bush signals war inevitable - Vatan NSC uneasy over Erdogan's Cyprus remarks - Milliyet OPINION MAKERS Bush to disclose evidence at UNSC next week - Cumhuriyet U.S. Iraq war plans depend on Turkey - Yeni Safak Turkish buildup on Iraqi border - Zaman De Soto: Denktas should not avoid negotiations - Radikal Erdogan alone on Cyprus - Cumhuriyet FINANCIAL JOURNALS U.S. wants modernization of Turkish bases - Dunya Bush: Saddam a liar - Finansal Forum BRIEFING State of the Union Address: Dailies regard President Bush's address to the nation a declaration of war against Iraq. President Bush has given Iraq a week to fully unveil its WMD. If Iraq does not obey, papers argue that war is inevitable. Persuaded by the Bush speech, France and Russia voiced readiness to join the international coalition if there is sufficient evidence about the Iraqi threat. `We will continue consultations. But if Saddam does not fully disarm for our nation's security and for global peace, we will lead an international coalition to disarm him,' President Bush said. Iraq: In a statement on Wednesday, the TGS said that troops and military equipment have been sent to the Iraqi border to enhance the readiness of Turkish military units in the region. The statement noted that the military buildup should not be seen as a sign of Turkey's willingness to enter war with Iraq. The MFA Spokesman on Wednesday urged the U.S. to disclose evidence regarding Iraqi WMD, and noted that Turkey may review its Iraq policy after seeing the proof presented by the U.S. "Hurriyet" reports that U.S. experts have presented Turkey new demands regarding the modernization of Turkish airbases, including the enlargement of runways and improvements in radar and air traffic security systems. "Aksam" claims that the U.S. will transfer troops directly to Mosul and Kirkuk if Turkey denies transit passage. An Aksam article draws attention to LA Times reports that the U.S. has 20 nuclear bombs on Incirlik airbase, and would not necessarily wait for Iraq to launch a chemical or nuclear attack before using them. Such press reports have not been denied by the U.S. Administration, the paper notes. "Milliyet" says that Turkey and the U.S. have already agreed to transfer 20,000 U.S. troops to Iraq across Turkish territory. Milliyet highlights a statement by the Iranian Ambassador to Ankara that Turkey can prevent the U.S. from waging war against Iraq. The Iranian Ambassador noted that it would be risky for the Americans to launch an attack without Turkish support. January's National Security Council (NSC) meeting on Friday will discuss several war scenarios, according to press reports. The NSC will discuss ways to tackle the uncertainty that might prevail in the region in the face of a U.S. failure, and how to handle a possible civil war or rebellion by the Kurds. Cyprus: President Sezer and military members of the National Security Council (NSC) are expected to issue warnings to the government about AKP leader Erdogan's remarks concerning Cyprus and Denktas at the Council's monthly meeting on Friday. The military is expected to warn the government that Erdogan, a figure with no official status in the Government, should refrain from making statements that cause trouble for Turkey. The MFA Spokesman on Wednesday denied reports about tension between Denktas and Erdogan, and said that Turkey has made a significant contribution to the strategy followed by Denktas. UN Cyprus envoy De Soto, who met Erdogan in Ankara on Wednesday, complained about Denktas' unwillingness to attend negotiations, and stressed that a new plan could be prepared that might fit his expectations. Some papers speculate that Foreign Minister Yakis, who has chosen to make statements that contradict Erdogan on Cyprus, might lose his post in a cabinet reshuffle when Erdogan becomes Prime Minister. Dailies say that theAKP administration was angered at Yakis for voicing open support to Denktas while Erdogan has blamed the Turkish Cypriot leader for the deadlock. "Cumhuriyet" claims that Erdogan has been `left alone' on the Cyprus issue. The paper notes that even Prime Minister Gul told the UK PM Blair on the phone the other day that Turkey would not accept the Annan plan without changes. EDITORIAL OPINION: State of the Union "The war message" Sami Kohen wrote in mass appeal Milliyet (1/30): "The State of the Union address can be summarized into one message: war is coming. Although President Bush did not declare a war or give an ultimatum to Saddam, his approach to the Iraq issue as well as his harsh rhetoric clearly indicated Washington's determination to strike Iraq. . It seems that right after the presentation of new evidence about Iraq, the US will seek a second UNSC resolution. Yet even in the absence of another resolution, the military option will be implemented. President Bush seems determined to go ahead with his `unilateralist doctrine' if and when he feels necessary." "Bush pushed the war button" Mehmet Ali Birand wrote in sensational-mass appeal Posta (1/30): "The gist of President Bush's message was as follows: war is inevitable. The US will act, unilaterally if necessary, in order to finish Saddam Hussein. President Bush is on the path of no return. Regardless of popular reactions or even in the absence of a second UNSC resolution, Washington will topple Saddam. . The State of the Union also provided a calendar of events: February 15, UNMOVIC's follow up report; February 20, UNSC's second resolution debate; and in March, the military operation will begin." "Defying the world" Mustafa Balbay wrote in social democrat-intellectual Cumhuriyet (1/30): "The state of the union has turned into a state of defiance to the whole world. The US seems very determined to launch a military operation against Iraq. The debate within the administration now centers on `how to handle the aftermath' instead of `shall we do it or not.' . Bush claims that Iraq has a huge variety of weapons, and the US intends to present evidence to the UN. The information must have been provided by multi-national companies which engage in arms deal with Iraq. . The US did not present any tangible evidence on the eve of the Afghan operation, and this time the same thing seems to be happening. Most likely, the US will present `something' in the name of `proof' and we will all have to see it that way." PEARSON