THE VIEW FROM SOUTHEASTERN TURKEY: PART ONE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 006857 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE, INR E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2013 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PHUM PINR KNNP TU SUBJECT: THE VIEW FROM SOUTHEASTERN TURKEY: PART ONE REF: A. ANKARA 6163 ¶B. ANKARA 6140 ¶C. ANKARA 5566 CLASSIFIED BY W.S. REID III, PO AMCON ADANA, E.O. 12958, REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: THIS IS THE FIRST OF THREE MESSAGES ABOUT THE AMCON ADANA REPORTING TEAM VISIT TO SOUTHEASTERN TURKEY FROM SEPTEMBER 14-26. REFTELS REPORT SOME ASPECTS OF THIS TRIP. THE REGION'S KURDISH POPULATION WAS DISTRUSTFUL OF STATE INITIATIVES; SAW THE "RETURN TO HOME" LAW AS INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM SIMILAR FAILED EFFORTS IN THE PAST AND EMPHASIZED THAT IMPLEMENTATION OF NEW REFORMS FELL FAR SHORT OF ENACTED LEGISLATION. THEY ALSO HOPED THAT THE U.S. WOULD SUPPORT THE KURDISH CAUSE: GENERAL AMNESTY FOR PKK/KADEK; IMPLEMENTATION OF THE COPENHAGEN CRITERIA; AND TURKISH AND EU ECONOMIC AND PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION. MANY CONTACTS OPPOSED SENDING TURKISH TROOPS IRAQ, WERE SKEPTICAL OF TURKEY'S IRAQ AGENDA, AND PROBED TEAM FOR U.S. INTENTIONS VIS-A-VIS PKK/KADEK IN NORTHERN IRAQ. END SUMMARY. ELAZIG - CALM BEFORE THE STORM? ¶2. (SBU) ELAZIG WAS QUIET, FOCUSING ON MINING,QUARRIES AND TOURISM AT HARPUT AND NEARBY NEMRUT DAG. HOWEVER, LOCAL BUSINESS LEADERS WORRIED THE PKK/KADEK WOULD GO ON OFFENSIVE AFTER THE END OF ITS UNILATERAL CEASEFIRE. HUMAN RIGHTS OFFICIALS CRITICIZED THE U.S. FOR "OCCUPYING IRAQ" AND CLAIMED THAT LOCAL JANDARMA WERE BEATING AND ARRESTING FAMILIES FROM ELAZIG WHO ATTENDED THE BURIALS OF DHKP-C MEMBERS IN NEIGHBORING BINGOL. THE HRA SAID THAT ATTORNEY ACCESS TO DETAINEES WAS NOT A PROBLEM IN ELAZIG. THE BUSTLING CONSTRUCTION SECTOR WAS VERY INTERESTED IN DOING RECONSTRUCTION BUSINESS IN IRAQ, EXPORTING MARBLE TO THE EU AND U.S., AND SEEKING FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN LOCAL MINING FOR CHROME, GOLD, COPPER,MARBLE AND PLATINUM. ¶3. (C) A LOCAL TRIBAL CHIEFTAIN, WHO HAS BEEN LAUDED BY THE POPE FOR HIS LOCAL PEACE-BUILDING AND TRIBAL DISPUTE RESOLUTION, SAID THAT HE WAS ENCOURAGING THE SEVEN TRIBES THAT FOLLOW HIM TO SUPPORT THE TRUE PATH PARTY (DYP),NOT DEHAP, IN A BID TO "TURN AWAY FROM SUPPORTING VIOLENCE AND CHOOSING PEACE," BUT COMMENTED THAT "THE STATE IS LEAVING NO ROOM FOR A MIDDLE PEACEFUL WAY IN THE REGION." "IT'S FORCEFUL ATTITUDE," HE EXPLAINED, "PUSHES PEOPLE TOWARD THE GUERRILLAS AND DEHAP OR PRESSURES THEM INTO FORCED COMPLIANCE WHICH THEY RESENT. THEY FEEL POWERLESS AND DESPERATE ,AND THIS IS ALIENATING THE YOUNG PEOPLE OF THE REGION." TUNCELI - BEING KURDISH AND ALEVI IS BOTTOM OF THE BARREL ¶4. (C) THE TUNCELI SUB-GOVERNOR REFLECTED ON THE RECENT ATTACK ON GOVERNOR, WHO HE SAID "IS NOT REGULARLY SEEING VISITORS NOW." HE NOTED THAT, OTHER THAN THE ATTACK, "THINGS ARE CALM AND THE ELECTRICITY IS FLOWING TO THE NATIONAL ELECTRIC GRID," HIGHLIGHTING WHAT HE APPARENTLY CONSIDERED TUNCELI'S CHIEF CONTRIBUTION TO NATIONAL PROSPERITY - HYDROELECTRIC POWER. 5.(C) IN A REMINDER OF THE GOT'S CONTINUING SECURITY CONCERNS IN TUNCELI, TWO AH-1 COBRAS AND UH-1 SAT ON A PAD NEXT TO THE GOVERNOR'S OFFICE ON SEPT. 15-16. THE TWO COBRAS WERE LINKED TO STARTER CARTS AND ARMED WITH ROCKET PODS. ON BOTH DAYS THE UH-1 FLEW LOW OVER SURROUNDING HILLS. LOCAL LEADERS, INCLUDING THE CHP MAYOR, BLAMED THE LACK OF GOT INVESTMENT IN THE REGION ON GOT INDIFFERENCE TO THE PROVINCE'S ALEVI POPULATION AND HISTORY OF KADEK AND DHKP-C OPERATIONS. THE MAYOR OUTLINED REPEATED FAILED EFFORTS TO RECEIVE HOUSING AND EDUCATION INVESTMENT, DESPITE THREE PLANS SUBMITTED TO TWO PRIME MINISTERS AND PRESIDENT SEZER. LOCAL ALEVI CONTACTS SAID THEY WERE ALIENATED BY PM ERDOGAN'S COMMENTS MARGINALIZING ALEVI PRACTICES AS CULTURE, NOT RELIGION. THEY SAID THAT THEIR ALIENATION AND ISOLATION HAD NOT CHANGED THEIR POLITICAL ORIENTATION (I.E.,SHIFT AWAY FROM CHP VOTING),BUT SAID THAT THEY WOULD HOPE THAT A FUTURE EU TURKEY WOULD END ITS STATE AID TO MOSQUES AND ORGANIZED RELIGION, DEVOTING MONEY INSTEAD TO SCHOOLS AND INFRASTRUCTURE. ¶6. (SBU) TUNCELI BUSINESS PEOPLE HOPED TO LURE BACK BIG GAME HUNTERS FROM THE U.S. AND AUSTRALIA WHO USED TO COME IN THE 1960-70'S TO HUNT BIGHORN SHEEP AND WILD BOAR, AND FISH FOR RENOWNED RED SPECKLED TROUT. THESE HOPES WERE STILL HAMPERED BY THE LACK OF HOTEL INFRASTRUCTURE AND QUESTIONABLE SECURITY IN HUNTING AREAS. BINGOL - EARTHQUAKE FAULT LINES, POLITICAL SPLITS ¶7. (SBU) THERE WERE STILL AT LEAST 10,000 PEOPLE IN TENTS AND MAKESHIFT DWELLINGS IN BINGOL AND ITS SURROUNDING AREAS DUE TO THE SPRING 2003 EARTHQUAKE. SHATTERED AND DAMAGED BUILDINGS STRETCHED AS FAR AS THE EYE COULD SEE IN BOTH THE CITY AND SURROUNDING VILLAGES. THE GOVERNOR'S OFFICE WAS STILL STANDING, BUT CRACKS WERE VISIBLE IN ALMOST EVERY WALL, EVEN IN THE GOVERNOR'S OFFICE. THE BUILDING FORMERLY HOUSING THE MAYOR'S OFFICE WERE BEING DEMOLISHED BECAUSE ITS STRUCTURE WAS SO DAMAGED BY THE EARTHQUAKE. THE MAYOR STARTED OPERATING FROM A PRE-FABRICATED BUILDING IN AUGUST AFTER SEVERAL MONTHS OF OPERATING FROM A TENT OR FROM THE OPEN. WINTER COULD BRING MORE SERIOUS SUFFERING AS ONLY A FEW GOT-FINANCED SHOW HOUSING PROJECTS, USING RIGOROUS POST-YALOVA BUILDING STANDARDS, WILL BE FINISHED BY FEBRUARY. MUCH RE-BUILDING IS HAMPERED BY SKYROCKETING BUILDING MATERIAL PRICES AND CONTRACTOR PRICE-GOUGING. ¶8. (C) THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE WAS AS SHATTERED AND BLEAK AS THE PHYSICAL ONE. THE DEHAP MUNICIPALITY AND THE GOVERNOR'S OFFICE HAVE BEEN AT LOGGERHEADS SINCE THE EARTHQUAKE. STARTING WITH THE FIRST HOURS FOLLOWING THE EARTHQUAKE, THE GOT DEMONSTRATED THAT IT WAS DETERMINED TO ASSERT ITS CONTROL OVER THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE. IN EARLY CRISIS MEETINGS, THE GOVERNOR EXCLUDED ALL MUNICIPAL OFFICIALS, ACCORDING TO THE MAYOR, AND ORDERED VOLUNTARY RELIEF SUPPLIES FROM OTHER DEHAP MUNICIPALITIES IN SOUTHEASTERN TURKEY CONFISCATED. THE CONFISCATIONS, WHICH WERE CONFIRMED BY OTHER DEHAP MAYORS AND SUB-MAYORS, EXTENDED THE WOUNDS FELT IN BINGOL'S POLITICAL CIRCLES TO THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST REGION. THE GOVERNOR EXPLAINED TO PO THAT THESE STEPS REFLECTED HIS ASSESSMENT THAT KADEK AND DEHAP WERE SYNONYMOUS,THAT DEHAP WAS PURSUING AN AGENDA THAT THE LOCAL KURDISH POPULACE DID NOT SUPPORT, AND THAT HE WAS DETERMINED TO DENY DEHAP/KADEK ANY OPPORTUNITY TO EXPLOIT THE DISASTER. ¶9. (C) BINGOL POLITICAL CIRCLES WERE DEEPLY ALIENATED, AND LOCAL BUSINESS LEADERS EXPECTED THAT LOCAL DISENCHANTMENT WITH THE BITTER MUNICIPAL-GOVERNORATE STANDOFF WOULD LEAD TO THE ELECTION OF A NON-DEHAP, INDEPENDENT LOCAL CANDIDATE WHO IS FAVORABLY VIEWED IN REGIONAL TRIBAL POLITICS. THE SAME LEADERS WARNED THAT THE POLARIZATION THIS STANDOFF FOSTERED COULD PROVE FERTILE GROUND FOR PKK/KADEK TO EXPLOIT. ELAZIG TRIBAL CONTACTS WITH BINGOL FAMILY TIES REPORTED INCREASED OPEN KADEK MOVEMENT INTO BINGOL'S MOUNTAIN VILLAGES IN THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER. ¶10. (C) ON SEPTEMBER 16 REPORTING TEAM SAW HEAVY JANDARMA PATROLLING IN BINGOL PROVINCE, INCLUDING A COMPANY-STRENGTH J ANDARMA PATROL BETWEEN BINGOL CITY AND THE PROVINCIAL BORDER WITH NEIGHBORING MUS PROVINCE. THERE ALSO WERE AT LEAST THREE JANDARMA APCS IN BINGOL CITY AS WELL AS OVER 25 JANDARMA ROVERS LOADED WITH TROOPS IN FIELD UNIFORMS WITH NON-GARRISON EQUIPMENT, AND CAMOUFLAGED FACES. MUS - A NEW MIDDLE EAST BREADBASKET, ANKARA HOPES ¶11. (SBU) MUS IS LARGE FLAT PLAIN WHICH THE GOT HOPES WILL AGAIN BECOME THE BREADBASKET THAT IT WAS AT THE TURN OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY. NOW THAT TWO NEW DAMS PROMISE BETTER-REGULATED IRRIGATION AND INCREASED HYDRO-ELECTRIC RESOURCES AND THE PROSPECT OF RENEWED TRADE WITH IRAQ AND SYRIA IS ON THE HORIZON, THE GOT, ACCORDING TO THE GOVERNOR'S OFFICE, HOPES TO SEE NEW HERDS OF MUS-BRED LIVESTOCK AND FEEDCROPS SUPPLYING THE BROADER MIDDLE EAST REGION. ¶12. (C) LOCAL POLITICS SEEMED CALM AND NEITHER LOCAL CONTACTS NOR GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED SIGNIFICANT SECURITY PROBLEMS IN THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS. THERE SEEMED TO BE AN EASY CO-EXISTENCE BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND LOCAL TRIBAL LEADERS UNDERPINNING THIS RELATIVE CALM AND A MUTUAL INTEREST IN BUILDING A BETTER GOVERNMENT-BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT MODEL. A PRIVATELY-FINANCED, NEW EASTERN ANATOLIA PROGRAM (DAP) "BUSINESS HOTEL" AND A RELATIVELY WELL-DEVELOPED REGIONAL AIRPORT WERE EXAMPLES OF THIS NEW EFFORT, BUT THE LOCAL MAYOR WARNED TEAM NOT TO READ TOO MUCH INTO THE EFFORTS TO DATE. HE SAID THAT HE HAD FOCUSED ON MARKETING THE NATURAL TULIPS FROM MUS, REPUTEDLY WHERE THE OTTOMAN TULIP CRAZE BEGAN, TO INTERNATIONAL AUDIENCES, BUT RECEIVED LITTLE GOVERNMENT HELP BECAUSE "I DO NOT HAVE A 'MADE IN ANKARA' STAMP ON MY PROJECT LIKE THE CATTLE AND CORN PEOPLE." ¶13. (C) LOCAL BUSINESSMEN AND LAWYERS SAID THAT THE GOT AND SEVERAL BIG FAMILIES WERE TALKING ABOUT EXPANDING LIVESTOCK AND AGRI-BUSINESS, BUT LITTLE HAD MATERIALIZED, AND GOVERNMENT KNOWLEDGE OF AGRI-BUSINESS WAS POOR. ONE CONTACT SAID THAT "THEY DECIDED TO BUILD THE DAMS FIRST AND NOW THEY HAVE DECIDED TO USE THE WATER TO FEED LIVESTOCK. WE'LL SEE; WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE DEMAND YET," HE CAUTIONED. LAWYERS IN TOWN NONETHELESS SAID THAT THE MOOD WAS POSITIVE AND EXPECTANT, AND THAT THERE WERE FEW DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN LOCAL ETHNIC GROUPS AND THE GOT APPARATUS. THERE WERE NO REPORTED PROBLEMS WITH LAWYER ACCESS TO DETAINEES, AND SEVERAL LAWYERS SAID THAT THERE HAD BEEN SUCCESSFUL PETITIONS TO NAME LOCAL CHILDREN WITH TRADITIONAL KURDISH NAMES, ALTHOUGH THEY NOTED THAT MOST FAMILIES STILL SELF-CENSORED PROPOSALS TO USE POLITICALLY-ORIENTED KURDISH NAMES. EDELMAN