AK GOVERNMENT CONFIDENT PARLIAMENT WILL APPROVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 006272 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2013 TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS TU IZ SUBJECT: AK GOVERNMENT CONFIDENT PARLIAMENT WILL APPROVE IRAQ TROOP DEPLOYMENT ON OCTOBER 7 REF: A. ANKARA 6208 ¶B. ANKARA 6160 (U) Classified by DCM Robert Deutsch, E. O. 12958, reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Turkey's cabinet-equivalent Council of Ministers adopted and sent to the Parliament on October 6 a motion for the dispatch of Turkish troops to Iraq. Ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party parliamentarians and even one opposition parliamentarian expressed confidence the measure would be approved on October 7. The motion sets a renewable one-year limit on the deployment but does not specify the deployment date, number of troops or deployment location, all of which will be left for the Turkish military to discuss with the U.S. End Summary. Council of Ministers Sends Measure to Parliament ¶2. (U) On October 6, Turkey's Council of Ministers approved and sent to Parliament a motion for "permission" to send troops to Iraq. AK government spokesman Cemil Cicek said Parliament would probably vote on the motion on October 7. The motion sets a renewable one-year limit to the deployment but does not specify the deployment date, number of troops or deployment location. PM's Parliamentary Advisors Confident ¶3. (C) AK parliamentarians Saban Disli and Egemen Bagis, both foreign policy advisors to PM Erdogan expressed "100% confidence" the measure would pass. They noted that the "permission" was flexible and did not require approval by President Sezer, who recently reiterated his opposition to the deployment (ref A). Other AK-connected political advisors and even one opposition People's Republican Party (CHP) deputy also said they believed the measure would pass. ¶4. (C) Disli and Bagis said PM Erdogan would be present for the vote, which would be conducted in a "closed session, open voting" format, meaning that AK parliamentarians who voted to oppose the measure would have to do so facing Erdogan. Bagis estimated 30 AK parliamentarians would vote no, giving the AK a comfortable majority. ¶5. (C) Grassroots opinion appears ready to support the deployment if the AK government leads. Embassy Political Counselor, currently traveling in Turkey's northeastern provinces of Artvin and Rize, found that local AK party organizations had public backing on the troop issue, similar to central Anatolian provinces Konya and Karaman (ref B). Details to Be Handed Over to Military ¶6. (C) Comment: Disli and Bagis said decisions about the number of troops, their location, the date of deployment, and other details would be "handed over to the military" and bureaucracy to discuss with the U.S. since they are "purely military things." Even if the measure is approved, we believe a lot of hard work remains before the deployment becomes reality. End Comment. ¶7. (U) Baghdad minimize considered. EDELMAN