TURKEY UNLIKELY TO OFFICIALLY CANCEL CYPRUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 006139 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/SE E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2013 TAGS: MOPS PREL TU GR CY SUBJECT: TURKEY UNLIKELY TO OFFICIALLY CANCEL CYPRUS EXERCISE SOON REF: A. ANKARA 5897 ¶B. 02 ANKARA 7069 ¶C. 02 ANKARA 7786 ¶D. NICOSIA 1882 ¶E. ATHENS 3240 ¶F. STATE 257142 (U) Classified by DCM Robert Deutsch. Reasons: 1.5 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C) We followed up on our earlier demarche about canceling the upcoming exercises on Cyprus (ref A) with MFA Deputy DG for Greece/Cyprus Necip Eguz on Sept 29. PolMilCouns pressed upon Eguz the need for an early official GOT position in order to ensure all sides follow last year's precedent of reciprical cancellations. Eguz said that Ankara had yet to make an "official" decision. However, "nothing is different" from last year, he stated, with both MFA and TGS inclined to follow the past two years' precedents. This meant preparations for the exercises would continue, but the Turkish Toros/Barbaros exercise would not occur if the Greek/Cypriot Toxotix/Nikiforos did not. "Timing is on our side," he observed (meaning the exercises in the south are scheduled to occur earlier than in the north). ¶2. (C) Pol-Mil Counselor observed that last year there had been a formal agreement between the Greek and Turkish foreign ministers to forego the exercises (ref C). Eguz recalled that that agreement occurred "at the last minute," but accepted that Ankara should consider how that might impact on the Turkish policy toward the exercises this year. He undertook to consult with others within the GOT and get back with us. ¶3. (C) Comment: Ankara is inclined to sit and wait to see what the Greeks and Cypriots do before committing itself to cancel its exercise. Our reminding Eguz of last year's bilateral understanding between Greece and Turkey may have prompted a review of the GOT position. The Ambassador will follow up when he sees Deputy TGS Chief General Basbug on October 2. We will also seek other opportunities to urge Turkey to cancel its exercise formally if the Greeks do the same. Unfortunately, a decision before October 1 appears unlikely. End comment. EDELMAN