IRAQ, TURKEY AND A NEW UNSC RESOLUTION: PASSAGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 005694

SIPDIS


DEPT. FOR IO/UNP, PMAT, PM/RSAT, EUR/SE AND NEA/NGA


E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2013
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS TU IZ
SUBJECT: IRAQ, TURKEY AND A NEW UNSC RESOLUTION: PASSAGE
CAN ONLY HELP, BUT WON'T ELIMINATE ALL OF TURKEY'S CONCERNS


REF: STATE 256273


Classified by DCM Robert S. Deutsch. Reasons 1.5 B and D.



1. (C) The passage of a new UNSC resolution on Iraq
authorizing a UN-mandated MNF would provide useful cover for
GOT officials with the Turkish Parliament if/when the GOT
seeks Parliament's approval for a Turkish troop contribution.
Significantly, President Sezer, the loudest voice insisting
on "international legitimacy," might be silenced by such a
resolution, as might a few, but not all, of the CHP
opposition, which continues to object to Turkish
participation. However, a Turkish deployment is likely to
remain unpopular among the Turkish press and a public that
does not want Turkish troops to be at risk "doing a favor"
for the US in Iraq. Turks have qualms about the prospects of
fighting fellow Muslims and of taking casualties in parts of
Iraq where Turkey's direct interests have long been portrayed
as peripheral. Turks remain focused on the tensions between
Iraqi Turkmen and Kurds, and on the PKK/KADEK presence, in
northern Iraq. So long as those issues remain hot here, a
Turkish deployment away from the north will be controversial
among the press and public, regardless of whether there is a
UN resolution backing it. To the extent that a resolution
attracts other contributors, that too will help the GOT get
to yes.



2. (C) Bottom Line: Overall, in the effort to get a Turkish
contribution, a new UNSCR helps. But on its own, it will not
assure us of winning the Turks over. On the down side, a
protracted UN debate may well delay a Turkish decision, as
the Turks are likely to wait and see whether the UN process
suceeds before taking the issue to Parliament. Should we
fail to secure a new resolution, having tried but failed will
add ammunition to those who oppose a Turkish contribution,
making it that much harder to get the Turks on board.
Whichever way it goes, Turkey will be watching closely.



3. (U) Baghdad minimize considered.
EDELMAN