CONSTITUTIONAL COURT RULES ERDOGAN NO LONGER AK

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000535 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2003 TAGS: PGOV PREL TU SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL COURT RULES ERDOGAN NO LONGER AK PARTY (AKP) CHAIRMAN; EXPECTED TO BE RE-ELECTED (U) Classified by polcounselor John Kunstadter; reasons: 1.5 (b,d). ¶1. (U) Turkish Constitutional Court's 6-5 retroactive ruling that AK Party (AKP) chairman Erdogan lost his chairmanship when he was forced to resign as a founding member in October throws another temporary barrier in Erdogan's path to the Prime Ministership. At the same time we understand from the comments of a member of the Court that the ruling removes the grounds on which the chief prosecutor had opened a case to close AK. ¶2. (U) From the public statements of Constitutional Court justice Kilic and public commentary by legal experts, we understand that: --AK's founders' council has ten days to meet and elect an acting chairman; Erdogan is eligible to be elected; --Once an acting chairman is elected, AK has 45 days in which to call a party congress to elect a new chairman; Erdogan is eligible to be elected. ¶3. (C) We expect AK to elect Erdogan as acting chairman and to re-elect him as chairman. At the same time, the continuing efforts of elements of the State to keep Erdogan in limbo is causing contacts from across the spectrum to begin to doubt that Erdogan will ever assume power unencumbered. The ruling is also generating more speculation among AK's opposition in and out of parliament that the modus vivendi between Erdogan and P.M. Gul, already under strain, is breaking down. ¶4. (U) The ruling leaves open the theoretical possibility that (a) a suit could be filed to declare the Nov. 2002 general elections void because Erdogan was listed as chairman on the ballots; or (b) that a suit could be filed to challenge any AK decision bearing Erdogan's signature as chairman after he gave up his founding member status October ¶17. ¶5. (C) Comment: However the technicalities play out, this ruling creates further uncertainty about Erdogan's course to the Prime Ministership. We expect AKP, and therefore the AK government, to be even more preoccupied with the balance of power within AKP and between the AK government and the State. This will have a dragging effect on an already-burdened decision-making process on foreign policy questions of direct concern to the U.S. PEARSON