TURKEY: AMBASSADOR'S JULY 21 FAREWELL CALL ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 004591

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: AMBASSADOR'S JULY 21 FAREWELL CALL ON
ANKARA MAYOR GOKCEK


(U) Classified by Ambassador W. Robert Pearson.
Reason:1.5(b)(d)



1. (C) Ambassador paid a farewell call July 21 on I. Melih
Gokcek, long-time and currently independent Mayor of Ankara.
Gokcek provided his view on recent U.S.-Turkey tensions and
how to repair them. Gokcek observed that anti-Americanism is
on the rise and risks becoming a permanent, and decisive,
feature of Turkish-American political relations in the wake
of the July 4 incident in Suleimaniyah. He noted that the
skyrocketing sales of Cola Turka (a new product marketed by
the Ulker company, long associated with culturally
conservative political circles) are a direct result of the
strong sense of wounded Turkish national pride felt on the
streets.



2. (C) Ambassador thanked Gokcek, and noted at length that
the USG had, in fact, good reason to believe that Turkish
Special Forces troops in Suleimaniyah had been preparing to
take action inimical to stability in Iraq. The point
immediately registered with, and was understood by, Gokcek,
who then observed that the AK Government is facing strong
pressure from three sources: 1) the USG; 2) the Turkish
General Staff (TGS); and 3) the Turkish public. The
Government has to take into account all three pressure
centers without offending any of them. Speaking candidly,
Gokcek observed that "if the AK Government offends the USG,
we know our economy will be in trouble. If it offend the
TGS, you know better than I do just what will happen. If AK
offends the voters it will be finished politically." He
added that if relations continue to sour as a result of the
July 4 or similar incidents, the GOT will have to choose
sides with "either of the two domestic groups" -- the Turkish
people or the TGS. Absent a signal of friendship from the
U.S. directly to the Turkish people, things risked getting
worse.


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Local Politics
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3. (C) Speaking of the voters, Gokcek observed that the
public as a rule "only remembers what you've done in your
last year of office" -- right before elections. He referred
in that vein to the numerous road-building and other
construction/urban renewal projects currently underway across
Ankara. He downplayed speculation that Turkey will head this
fall to nation-wide local elections (mandatory by April
2004),noting that President Sezer seems to be in veto-mode
and is likely to try to veto any election law that comes down
the pike -- thus at the very least delaying or otherwise
complicating any fall election time-table that might be under
consideration. Gokcek offered nonchalantly that "I'll
probably be joining AK in a few weeks," dismissing the
possibility that Kecioren Mayor Turgut Altinok will challenge
him for the ruling AK Party's Ankara mayoral nomination.


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Comment
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4. (C) Gokcek is a keen political observer and ambitious
operator who makes it his business to keep abreast of what is
on the voter's minds -- and understands his potential value
to P.M./AK Chairman Erdogan as a successful mayor of Turkey's
capital and second largest city as the local election
campaign kicks off. A nationalist at heart, Gokcek
nevertheless has long looked askance at the TGS, and has long
opposed its dominant role in politics and policy-making. In
this context, it is worth underscoring Gokcek's suggestion
that they way to assuage wounded Turkish pride is by an
appeal to the electorate rather than to the TGS -- which,
while certainly feeling the sting, has its own agenda and
reasons for portraying itself as the guardian of Turkish
national honor.



5. (C) Though extremely well-informed about national
politics, reflecting his aspirations for a national
leadership role, Gokcek is still for NOW keeping his feet
firmly on local ground. During the Q and A with the press
before the private meeting, only one question was asked to
the Ambassador -- by a Gokcek staffer seeking his comment on
the quality of city services.
PEARSON