TURKISH NGO ASAM ARGUES FOR GREATER ROLE FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 004583 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2013 TAGS: PREL PGOV TU SUBJECT: TURKISH NGO ASAM ARGUES FOR GREATER ROLE FOR TURKMEN IN IRAQ REF: A. ANKARA 4544 ¶B. ANKARA 4550 (U) Classified by Acting Political Counselor Nicholas S. Kass. Reason: 1.5 (b)(d). ¶1. (C) In a July 16 meeting, Umit Ozdag, Director of the Center for Eurasian Strategic Studies (ASAM -- a leading Establishment think-tank),offered poloff his take on the July 4 incident in Iraq and the way forward in U.S.-Turkey relations. ¶2. (C) Ozdag called the July 4 incident, in which U.S. troops detained Turkish Special Forces in N. Iraq, "unacceptable," echoing a line from the military, President Sezer, and opposition CHP. Ozdag, who admitted he is considering standing for election as chairman of the ultranationalist MHP, asked, "How can something like this happen between allies?" In a conspiratorial tone, Ozdag argued that he found it hard to believe that the decision to detain the Turks could have been made by a local U.S. commander. Instead, he averred, the operation "must have been retaliation against the Turkish military directed by the Pentagon." ¶3. (C) Ozdag conceded that the Turkish Special Forces may have been pursuing "independent activities" in Iraq, which, he said, is a clear indication that the Turkish General Staff (TGS) does not fully trust the U.S. to protect Turkey's interests in the region. He claimed that USG policy toward the Turkmen had raised alarm bells in TGS -- even more than the PKK/KADEK issue. As evidence, Ozdag pointed to the absence of a senior Iraqi Turkmen Front (ITF) official on the Iraqi Governing Council. He also referred to the MOU text negotiated before March 1, which mentioned "Assyrians and Nestorians" as constituent groups in Iraq. The inclusion of these much smaller groups had left the impression among some government and military officials that the USG intended to shove the Turkmen aside, he said. ¶4. (C) In order to overcome the lack of trust, Ozdag argued that "before anything else, the U.S. needs to apologize" for July 4. "The U.S. should make a gesture to the Turkmen," Ozdag added without elaborating. Explaining Turkish policy on Iraqi Turkmen, Ozdag referred to an academic study of Iraq published in the late 1950s, in which the population of Kirkuk is described as "mostly Turkmen." This, he claimed, suggests that the population of Turkmen in Iraq could be as high as 3 million, while "there are only 4 million or so Kurds." An accurate census in Iraq would confirm these numbers and underscore the central role Turkmen should play in administering the country. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) The nominally "independent" ASAM in fact has long had ties -- financial and other -- to the Turkish military and bureaucracy, including widespread reports of direct funding from TGS (ref A). Consequently, over the years Embassy has often sought ASAM's view as a reliable indicator of Establishment thinking on a wide variety of issues. In this context several points are worth clarifying. First, throughout the meeting, Ozdag referred to himself as a "Eurasianist" ("Avrasyaciyim") -- a code word often used to indicate a perceived need to re-orient Turkish foreign policy toward Central Asia and Russia, a position Ozdag shares with some military hard-liners including NSC SecGen Gen. Kilinc (ref B and previous). Second, Ozdag is considering running for leadership in MHP, a party known for its strong interest in "Eurasia." MHP is also assiduously trying acquire a more sophisticated gloss (partly by seeking out people like Ozdag),and is promoting the question of the Iraqi Turkmen as a wedge issue between the U.S. and Turkey in a bid to position itself as the TGS' potential best political friend and alternative to the ruling AK Party. Finally, we note Ozdag's insistence that the "independent activities" of Turkish Special Forces occurred in a wider framework of alleged TGS distrust of the USG, and thus that the July 4 incident reflected an anti-Turkish plot from the highest levels in the Pentagon. We suspect this perspective owes a great deal to the mirror-imaging often misapplied by Turks when looking at the USG. PEARSON