ANKARA MEDIA REACTION REPORT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 000298 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EUR/SE, EUR/PD, NEA/PD, DRL JCS PASS J-5/CDR S. WRIGHT E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR TU SUBJECT: ANKARA MEDIA REACTION REPORT MONDAY, JANUARY 13, 2003 THIS REPORT WILL PRESENT A TURKISH PRESS SUMMARY UNDER THREE THEMES: HEADLINES BRIEFING EDITORIAL OPINION -------------- HEADLINES MASS APPEAL U.S. experts arrive in Turkey - Hurriyet UN: 800,000 might flee to Turkey in war - Aksam Saddam to Tuzmen: Turkey can halt U.S. - Vatan Saddam: Turkey's security in jeopardy if it enters war - Milliyet Gen. Myers coming to demand a clear answer - Turkiye Parris to Ankara: Decide fast, our patience running out - Hurriyet 1/12 5,000 Americans rally against war: Don't shed blood for oil - Turkiye OPINION MAKERS Baghdad: Turkey will be hurt severely - Cumhuriyet U.S. asks for more - Cumhuriyet 1/11 Bad news from UN experts: Iraq passive in cooperation - Radikal 1/11 Gul: War will bring catastrophe - Yeni Safak GOT gives U.S. permission for site surveys - Yeni Safak 1/11 U.S. continues Gulf military buildup to strike Iraq in late February - Zaman 80,000 expected to rally for peace in north Cyprus - Radikal 1/12 Businessmen to issue warning to AKP - Radikal Greek Naval Commander: Turkish fear over - Radikal FINANCIAL JOURNALS Iraq's Ramadan tough on Turkish claims over Mosul, Kirkuk - Dunya Turkish contractors turn eyes to Iraq's reconstruction - Finansal Forum BRIEFING Iraq: In a joint press conference with visiting Turkish State Minister Tuzmen, Iraqi vice President Taha Yasin Ramadan warned that Turkey would suffer heavy losses in the event of a U.S. attack against Iraq. In a threatening tone, Ramadan warned Turkey to refrain from giving support to the U.S., papers report. Ramadan also said that reports about Turkey's possible claims on Mosul and Kirkuk served the intentions of the `evil American Administration and Zionists.' He then ended the press conference without giving Tuzmen a chance to speak. Mainstream papers characterize the press conference as `scandalous.' Tuzmen was also received by Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, who urged Turkey to mediate on behalf of Iraq to prevent war. Prime Minister Gul wrapped up his Middle East tour after meetings with Iranian leaders in Tehran on Sunday. Gul said that UNSC resolutions should be applied, and added that Iraq had primary responsibility for taking steps to avert war. Syrian Foreign Minister Al-Shara is expected in Ankara on Monday to discuss the Iraq crisis, dailies report. Meanwhile, papers highlight meetings of former U.S. Ambassador Mark Parris with government and business leaders. Parris warned that if Ankara further delays a decision on Iraq, the U.S. would shift its plans and consider Kuwait and Jordan as alternative sites from which to launch attacks against Iraq. If support from Turkey does not materialize, the U.S. will ignore Turkish views regarding a post-Saddam transition. Parris added that U.S.-Turkish ties would suffer a setback that would be felt for years, since President Bush is expected to be re-elected and remain in office until 2008. Saturday's papers report that U.S. Ambassador Robert Pearson met with Prime Minister Gul on Friday. `The U.S. has made certain demands,' Gul said, adding that the parliament was to decide how to respond. Weekend papers say that Turkey's Ambassador to Washington was told that the U.S. expects a swift response, and was given the message that U.S. aid to Turkey might be increased to $14 billion. Meanwhile, 150 U.S. experts are expected to begin site surveys in Van, Mus, Diyarbakir, and Malatya airports, and in Mersin port on Monday. The TGS issued a statement saying that U.S. specialists would be accompanied by Turkish army officials, and that the surveys are expected to take ten days. Cyprus: In a statement following talks with UN Cyprus envoy Alvaro de Soto on Friday, MFA said that discussion of the UN- sponsored Cyprus plan would begin soon. The Greek and Italian foreign ministers, EU expansion commissioner Verheugen, and EU foreign policy chief Solana are expected in Turkey before late January. Reports say that Parliament Speaker Bulent Arinc will lead a parliamentary delegation of 20 to the Turkish Cypriot sector January 13-15 for talks with political, military, and NGO leaders. Meanwhile, DSP leader and former Prime Minister Ecevit said at a meeting in Istanbul that if the UN plan is accepted, Turkey will face difficulty with its access to the Aegean. He claimed that the Greek Cypriot administration is illegitimate and violates international agreements. Economy: An IMF delegation under the chairmanship of the Fund's First Deputy Director Anne Krueger is due in Turkey this week to discuss banking sector problems and excessive employment in the public sector. Monday's dailies expect the business community to issue a warning to the government for its controversial moves in economic policy. The businessmen will stress that the future of the government depends on the strict implementation of the IMF-sponsored economic stabilization program. EDITORIAL OPINION: Iraq/General Myers visit "The Myers Visit" Fikret Bila highlights the upcoming visit of General Myers to Ankara (1/13): "Washington hopes to get a clear and final response to its requests during the Myers visit. This visit will help Washington determine whether or not to plan for a second front in the north. Prior to the Myers visit, the (Turkish) government is doing everything to play for time. . Washington's hope is to receive a clear `yes' or `no' from Ankara. However, if the AKP government continues to be evasive, the Turkish General Staff will only tell General Myers to wait for a political decision. . It seems even without a political decision, the Turkish military has intensified its preparations as if expecting a war. Turkish and American military officials are working on joint operational plans. . The government is against a war, but also concerned about the possible consequences of a refusal to cooperate with the US. In fact, Turkey does not have much time to make the decision, which is being eagerly awaited by both Washington and the Turkish military." "The US regrets its support for the AKP" Washington reporter of mass appeal Sabah, Asli Aydintasbas wrote (1/13): "Washington has started questioning the support it has given to Turkey's AKP, and to AKP leader Tayyip Erdogan. The Turkish government's delayed answers to requests for cooperation on Iraq are becoming major disappointment in the Washington administration. After waiting for some time for a clear stance from Ankara, Washington has started sending `alarm signals' as well as threats for sanctions in the event of Turkey's refusal to cooperate. A senior US official said last week that the US was determined to attack Iraq from the north, even if Turkey refused to cooperate. `But in this case an economic aid package for Turkey will drop from the agenda, and Turkish- American ties will deteriorate,' the official warned." "Alarm Bells" Washington reporter of mass appeal Milliyet, Yasemin Congar warns (1/13): "Washington is very disturbed about Ankara's indecision. The US administration, by looking at the current picture in Ankara, concludes that the Iraq issue has been clearly understood by the Turkish military and the Foreign Ministry, yet the government itself is still not `getting it.' . Those who look from Washington to Ankara see a double-headed government. They sense differences between AKP leader Erdogan and Prime Minister Gul. By evaluating Erdogan's statements while he was in the US, they thought that if he were PM, there could be positive changes on both Cyprus and the Iraq issue. . Those in Washington also question whether or not Turkey is a real ally. They are astonished by State Minister Tuzmen, who told journalists that Turkey's goal is to improve trade relations with Iraq, and flew to Baghdad with a group of 350 businessmen. . Turkey better listen to the alarm bells in Washington, and not rely too much on the notion that it is `indispensable' to the U.S. administration because of its geo-strategic location." PEARSON