OESI PROPOSAL SUBMISSION: BLACK SEA LONG-TERM

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 002022 SIPDIS DEPT FOR OES/PCI (ESHAW),OES/STC (CWOYTOWICZ) POSTS FOR ESTOFF E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SENV EFIS SUBJECT: OESI PROPOSAL SUBMISSION: BLACK SEA LONG-TERM ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH NETWORK REF: A. SECSTATE 31684 ¶B. WOYTOWICZ - GUTMAN eMail, 3/19 This cable was prepared in coordination with embassies in Bucharest, Kiev, Moscow, Sofia, and Tbilisi. Entitled "Start-up of a Black Sea Long Term Ecological Research Network" (LTER) we anticipate full participation from all Black Sea littorals. ¶A. PROJECT TITLE: "Start-up of a Black Sea Long Term Ecological Research Network" ¶B. DEPARTMENT STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE: Regional stability, economic development and S&T cooperation ¶C. PROBLEM/ISSUE: A Black Sea academic recently estimated that there are more than 8,500 peer-reviewed studies on the Black Sea. An oceanography conference in Ankara in October 2002 drew more than 400 professionally researched abstracts that were less than a year old on the Black and Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Very few studies are coordinated or systematically compared with others. An integrated basin-wide approach is clearly needed and would help leverage strained budgets. Interest among academics in establishing an LTER is strong. Strengthening regional cooperation on Black Sea issues will simultaneously enhance U.S. S&T cooperation in the region and lead to a coordinated body of literature that documents changes in the Black Sea that affect economic development. Such coordination can lead to an increase in science-driven decision-making, improved environmental protection, and increased economic stability. It will also foster U.S. engagement in important scientific research during a period in which the EU Sixth Framework is projected to exert a tremendous pull on intellectual resources. ¶D. ANTICIPATED RESULTS: The project will bring together institutions and scientists to coordinate their research and maximize their limited available research funding. For example, this project will enable regular sharing of limited core samples. The result will be == local leadership and development of a coordinated body of data and literature that does not duplicate previous studies, picks up where short-term studies leave off and focuses on goals important to the environment of the Black Sea. == a revitalized Black Sea will stimulate economic growth through tourism, trade and development. == strengthened regional cooperation and academic communities == continuously maintained time series of high quality core measurements from several sites within the Black Sea. ¶E. U.S. INTERESTS: == Half of the six Black Sea littoral countries are either allied NATO members or NATO aspirants, three are EU candidates, and they all require continuing international support. It is within U.S. interests to remain engaged in these countries as they develop. The Black Sea is no longer a western neighbor: it is the west's backyard. == Of the six Black Sea littoral states, the U.S. has an existing S&T agreement with all except Georgia. Staying close to S&T in this region is essential for continuing U.S. science leadership. ¶F. ESF REQUIREMENT OF PROMOTING ECONOMIC OR POLITICAL STABILITY: The proposal uses diplomatic -- rather than development -- means to promote regional cooperation. Participants will be exposed to U.S. values and positions on issues that may be subject to future international negotiations. Cooperation among academic institutions promotes regional political stability. ¶G. PROPOSED RECIPIENT OF FUNDS AND PROPOSED VEHICLE FOR OBLIGING THE MONEY: Joint grant to the University of Washington and Institute of Marine Sciences at Middle East Technical University (METU). ¶H. DETAILED PROJECT DESCRIPTION: Based on results from recent NATO and National Science Foundation projects, there is abundant evidence that anthropogenic activities over the past three decades have caused changes in the chemistry, circulation and biology of the Black Sea. Some scientists fear that global warming may cause further changes in the future. The only way to understand what these changes are, what may be causing them, and how they will affect regional interests is to develop a time series of data, augmented by studies to understand specific evolving processes. The Long Term Ecological Research Program (LTER) offers an excellent framework for conducting such a time series. This OESI funded project will be the first phase in developing a time series. In order to prepare a proposal for an LTER, the project will assess each countries' capabilities, including their scientific and sampling capabilities. This assessment will require bringing together scientific representatives from all countries to summarize existing capabilities and identify new capabilities that are needed. Initial meetings may include a small group of professionals specifically to focus on certain aspects of the project. Larger meetings to look at capabilities in their totality will follow. A five-person steering committee to represent the participating countries will play an integral role throughout. The final step will be to prepare a specific proposal to initiate the LTER. This proposal will require detailed plans for sampling, measurement and data management and will list specific contributions from each country. The project's ultimate goal is prepare the LTER Proposal by January 2005. It is possible that long term funding could come from the countries themselves plus EU, NATO, and/or the National Science Foundation. James Murray (University of Washington) and Ilkay Salihoglu (IMS-METU) will initially coordinate the project. Most meetings will be at IMS-METU in Erdemli, Turkey and possibly at the University of Washington, Seattle. ¶I. PERFORMANCE TARGETS AND PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE: == January 1, 2004: Project start == April 1, 2004: Reports by Working Groups from participating countries summarizing their capabilities and needs for maintaining time series measurements and data management. == June 2004: Meeting at IMS/METU in Erdemli of representatives from Black Sea countries and the U.S. to draft an outline of the LTER proposal. == September 2004: Meeting in the U.S. of the proposal writing team to prepare a draft proposal that will be distributed for internal review. Alternate location: Edirmli. == January 1, 2005: Final LTER proposal prepared. ¶J. ASSUMPTIONS: == All countries support ecologically sound development of the Black Sea and recognize the role that research plays in the effort. == Research institutes participate and will be fully engaged. == Results will be achieved. ¶K. TOTAL PROPOSED COST: $103,000 This will support preliminary Working Group meetings in Turkey, Ukraine, Russia, Romania, Bulgaria and Georgia. There will be meeting of all countries at IMS in Erdemli, Turkey in June 2004 to outline the draft proposal and possibly at the University of Washington, Seattle in September 2004 to finalize the plan. There may also be meetings of the Steering Group. ¶L. TOTAL REQUESTED OF OES: $103,000 1.) National working group meetings 12,000 six at $2,000 1,000 materials and supplies 2.) International meeting in Edirmli (June) 20,000 travel and per diem for participants 12,000 travel and per diem for 3 U.S. experts 1,000 materials and supplies 3.) International Meeting (September) a.) Site: Seattle 35,000 travel and per diem for participants 5,000 five U.S. experts 1,000 materials and supplies b.) Alternate site: Edirmli 20,000 travel and per diem for 10 20,000 travel and per diem for 5 U.S. experts 1,000 materials and supplies 4.) Publication and translation of plan and recommendations: 10,000 5.) Administrative costs (phone postage, fax, duplication) 3,000 12 months at $250/ month 3,000 video conferences TOTAL PROJECT COST: $ 103,000 ¶M. PRINCIPAL PARTNERS: First Phase partners: == University of Washington, School of Oceanography == Institute of Marine Sciences == Ankara Regional Environmental Hub Second Phase partners might include: == National Science Foundation == Long Term Ecological Research International (LTER International) == UNESCO-IOC ¶N. ROLE AND RESOURCES THAT PARTNERS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE PROJECT: == University of Washington will be the lead agency and provide oversight and management of program. == Institute of Marine Sciences will provide liaison to local institutions and accommodation and meals for activities held at that location. ¶O. OES SPONSORING OFFICE: == OES/STC