TURKISH THINK TANK ALLEGES US PLANS TO REDEFINE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001513

SIPDIS


STATE FOR EUR/SE (SILVERMAN AND GOELLNER-SWEET),NEA/NGA


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU IZ AF
SUBJECT: TURKISH THINK TANK ALLEGES US PLANS TO REDEFINE
"MIDDLE EAST."


(U) CLASSIFIED BY DCM RDEUTSCH, REASONS 1.5 (B)(D).



1. ((C) SUMMARY: ASAM, A RESEARCH ORGANIZATION PROVIDING
ADVICE AND RESEARCH TO THE TGS AND THE GOT, ASSERTS THE USG'S
POST-IRAQ GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGY INVOLVES REDEFINING THE
MIDDLE EAST REGION TO INCLUDE AFGHANISTAN. ASAM SUPPORTS THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF AUTONOMOUS REGIONS FOR KURDS AND TURKMEN IN
POST-WAR IRAQ BECAUSE IT BELIEVES THAT AN IRAQ BASED ON THE
FEDERAL SYSTEM WILL SERVE AS A POTENTIAL CATALYST FOR
REGIONAL INSTABILITY. END SUMMARY.



2. (C) WE MET WITH UMIT OZDAG, CHAIRMAN OF THE TURKISH
CENTER FOR EURASIAN STRATEGIC STUDIES (ASAM) AT THE RESEARCH
ORGANIZATION'S HEADQUARTERS IN THE CANKAYA SECTION OF ANKARA.
THE HEADQUARTERS ARE PLUSH, SUGGESTING THAT OZDAG HAS BEEN A
SUCCESSFUL FUND-RAISER. ASAM WAS PREVIOUSLY FUNDED BY TGS.
HOWEVER, ACCORDING TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE ADVANCED
STRATEGY CENTER -- A THINK TANK WITH DEEP CONNECTIONS TO THE
NSC, TGS, AND INTEL SERVICES -- ASAM IS NOW SUPPORTED BY A $5
MILLION GRANT FROM ISLAMIST TURKISH FOOD PROCESSING COMPANY
ULKER AS A WAY TO EXPAND ITS POLITICAL ACCESS TO THE
SECULARIST ESTABLISHMENT. OZDAG SAYS ASAM PROVIDES ADVICE TO
THE TURKISH GENERAL STAFF (TGS) AND OTHER GOT ENTITIES AND HE
CLAIMED GOOD RELATIONS WITH RESEARCH ORGANIZATIONS IN THE US,
ASIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST. HE CLAIMS NOT TO HAVE CLOSE
RELATIONS WITH INSTITUTES IN WESTERN EUROPE, ALTHOUGH HIS
GERMAN IS FLUENT FROM YEARS OF STUDY AND TEACHING IN GERMANY.
ASAM IS EMBARKING ON A NEW RESEARCH PROJECT THAT INVOLVES
HOWARD UNIVERSITY IN WASHINGTON, DC, ACCORDING TO OZDAG.


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US RESHAPING GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE
--------------

3. (C) OZDAG STATED THAT HIS AND ASAM'S MIDDLE EAST FOCUS IS
CURRENTLY MORE IN THE US OPERATION POTENTIAL IN IRAQ. OZDAG
BELIEVES THE US IS SEEKING TO RESHAPE THE GEOPOLITICAL
LANDSCAPE OF THE MIDDLE EAST AFTER THE IRAQ ISSUE IS RESOLVED
SO THAT AFGHANISTAN IS INCLUDED IN THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST
REGION. IN ANTICIPATION OF THE US'S POTENTIAL REDEFINITION
OF THE REGION, ASAM HAS ENCOURAGED THE GOT TO SUPPORT
INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS IN AFGHANISTAN TO FURTHER TURKEY'S OWN
NATIONAL INTERESTS.


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FEDERAL IRAQ AGAINST TURKISH NATIONAL INTERESTS
-------------- -

4. (C) OZDAG ECHOES THE STANDARD OFFICIAL TURKISH LINE THAT
THE CREATION OF A FEDERAL IRAQ IS AGAINST TURKISH NATIONAL
INTERESTS. FURTHER, OZDAG STATES THAT A FEDERAL IRAQ WOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED ETHNIC TENSIONS IN TURKEY. OZDAG
WOULD PREFER TO SEE IRAQ REORGANIZED INTO A "UNIFIED,
DEMOCRATIC COUNTRY," ESTABLISHING AUTONOMOUS REGIONS FOR BOTH
KURDS AND TURKMEN. OZDAG ALLEGES THAT THERE ARE 2 1/2
MILLION TURKMEN AND 4 MILLION KURDS IN IRAQ. DENYING BOTH
KURDS AND TURKMEN AUTONOMOUS REGIONS, OZDAG ASSERTS, WOULD
VIOLATE BOTH NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL LAWS.


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COOPERATION WITH KURDS AGAINST TURKISH INTERESTS
-------------- ---

5. (C) OZDAG BELIEVES THAT WASHINGTON'S COOPERATION WITH
KURDS IS INCONSISTENT WITH TURKISH INTERESTS. HE PREDICTS
SUPPORT FOR KURDS WILL EXTRACT ITS OWN SOCIAL PRICE IN
TURKEY, SINCE THERE ARE MANY IN TURKEY WHO WILL FOLLOW A
KURDISH "ANTI-POPE" AS A RESULT.


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SHI'A DO NOT NEED AUTONOMY
--------------

6. (C) OZDAG DOES NOT PERCEIVE A NEED FOR AUTONOMOUS
REGIONS/STATUS FOR IRAQI SHI'A, A MAJORITY POPULATION IN IRAQ
BUT, RATHER, THAT OTHER MINORITY GROUPS REQUIRED SPECIAL
PROTECTION FROM THE SHI'A. HE NOTED THAT TEL AVIV WOULD
PROBABLY OPPOSE ANY AUTONOMY FOR THE SHI'A.


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US DOESN'T CARE ABOUT NEW IRAQI GOVERNMENT
--------------

7. (C) BELIEVING THE US DOES NOT CARE ABOUT THE COMPOSITION
OF THE NEW IRAQI GOVERNMENT, OZDAG WARNS THAT ESTABLISHING A
FEDERAL IRAQ WILL PLANT THE SEEDS OF LONG-TERM REGIONAL
INSTABILITY. ANKARA, OUT OF SELF INTEREST, WILL BE COMPELLED
TO ESTABLISH CLOSER TIES TO TEHERAN AND DAMASCUS, AS IT DID
IN THE EARLY NINETIES, HE AVERRED.



8. (C) COMMENT: OZDAG'S ASSERTIONS REFLECT THE MIDDLE OF
THE CURVE ON TURKISH ANALYSIS OF IRAQ, TURKISH INTERESTS AND
US POLICY. END COMMENT.
PEARSON