HADEP: KURDS FEAR IRAQ WAR WILL LEAD TO CRACKDOWN

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001470 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2008 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM TU SUBJECT: HADEP: KURDS FEAR IRAQ WAR WILL LEAD TO CRACKDOWN IN SOUTHEAST REF: A. ANKARA 1362 ¶B. ANKARA 1341 ¶C. ANKARA 1303 Classified by Polcouns John Kunstadter. Reason: 1.5(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Ahmet Turan Demir, chairman of the pro-Kurdish HADEP Party, and Nazmi Gur, HADEP international relations advisor, told us March 4 anti-war sentiment in the southeast is fueled primarily by Kurdish fear of the Turkish military. Many Turks might oppose a war on principle, or out of concern that Turkey will be attacked or suffer economic setbacks. But Kurds in the southeast worry the Turkish military will use a war as justification to restrict freedoms and provoke a violent conflict. ¶2. (C) Demir and Gur repeated concerns expressed by other Embassy contacts (reftels) that elements of the military were isolating jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan and recommending that the GOT impose a war-related state of emergency in the southeast as part of a broad effort to increase pressure on the Kurds. Gur said he noticed Jandarma tightening controls at roadway checkpoints during a recent trip to the region. Even the retrial of four Kurdish former MPs is a potential source of conflict, as the HADEP leaders shared concerns (reported reftel A) that the court is biased against the defendants. Demir said the combined force of these pressures could cause a conflict between the Turkish military and the broader Kurdish community, not just KADEK (formerly PKK). ¶3. (C) Comment: The HADEP leaders' comments represent the latest example of a consistent message we are hearing from all our Kurdish contacts of differing political persuasions. Deep-rooted mistrust of the GOT (particularly the military) is causing anti-war sentiment among a population otherwise inclined to support the U.S. view that Saddam Hussein is a threat, and one that may stand to gain economically from a war. PEARSON