TURKEY: PARLIAMENTARY VOTE POST-MORTEM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001346 SIPDIS DEPT FOR (D) ARMITAGE, (P) GROSSMAN, (EUR) JONES NSC FOR HADLEY, FRIED OVP FOR EDELMAN OSD FOR WOLFOWITZ, FEITH JCS FOR CJCS MYERS, VJCS PACE, J-5 CASEY TREASURY FOR U/S TAYLOR E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2013 TAGS: MARR MOPS PREL TU IZ SUBJECT: TURKEY: PARLIAMENTARY VOTE POST-MORTEM (U) Classified by Ambassador W. Robert Pearson. Reasons: 1.5 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: MFA U/S told the Ambassador March 1 the Turkish system was in shock following defeat of the Parliamentary resolution for U.S. and Turkish Troop Deployments. The PM and Government worked hard to convince parliamentarians, but felt their efforts were not fully understood. Turkey remains committed to the strategic partnership with the U.S. and is ready to work on a broad range of issues. How the Government will pull itself together and how it will proceed on the Iraq issue remains an open question at this point. Ziyal asked for supportive U.S. statements to help control potential market fallout and a provocative Kurdish reaction. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Following failure of the Parliamentary vote on troop deployments March 1, MFA Undersecretary Ugur Ziyal provided the Ambassador with an evaluation of the situation. Working from a prepared text, Ziyal noted that the result left the Government, the AK party and the bureaucracy in shock. The Parliament had engaged in a long and heated debate. The Government did everything possible to persuade Parliament to vote in favor. While the Government obtained a simple majority in favor, it did not meet the constitutional requirement for a majority of the sitting members, failing by 3 votes (264 yes votes, with 267 of the 533 voting required to pass). The Government told the Parliament that all of the MOU,s (Military, Economic and Political) were in place, even though we were still just short of full agreement. ¶3. (C) Ziyal said that the Government had informed the U.S. of the difficulties facing it in obtaining Parliamentary approval all along the way. Washington had not understood the difficulty. While the Prime Minister needed time to prepare the ground, the delays were seen as procrastination. Although officials understood the U.S. need for an early response to its requests, the public viewed the U.S. approach as putting Turkey under pressure. Turkey tried to prepare agreements in political, military and economic areas to persuade Parliament of the benefit of cooperation, but the process as seen as bargaining. Turkey asked the right spin be given to the U.S. press, instead Turkey,s difficulties were met by mockery. Last but not least Turkomen were left off the presidium committee formed by the Iraqi opposition conference almost on the day of the Parliamentary discussion. This issue was directly raised during the Parliament debate. ¶4. (C) Ziyal noted that the Prime Minister and the Government had risked their political future to stand by American Friendship. The AK party would meet Sunday morning, he said, to evaluate the result and determine how the Government would proceed. Despite the failure of the resolution, Turkey,s commitment to the strategic partnership continued, and he hoped the U.S. would recognize and value the effort as well as the continuing value of our strategic partnership. Our relationship, Ziyal added is not about just one issue, but about the many that we pursue together. Turkey is ready to work on with the U.S. on all issues. ¶5. (C) Ziyal noted that in the immediate aftermath of the vote, he had two major concerns. First was the reaction of the financial markets on Monday, and second was the reaction of the Iraqi Kurds. He said the calm reaction from the Embassy in the immediate aftermath of the vote was helpful and that it is important for the U.S. more generally to respond in a measured way to the developments in order to limit the difficulties that could develop on those two fronts. ¶6. (C) The Ambassador responded that the U.S. appreciated the Government's effort to work for a favorable decision. He noted that the relative majority of those who expressed an opinion favored passage of the measure. He said the U.S. would need some practical information as it evaluated next steps. We would need to know as soon as possible whether the Government would consider taking the issue back to parliament, and in what form that might happen. Following the leadership meeting the Ambassador said we hoped the Government would be able to give us an idea of the options and time frames it was considering as soon as possible. Ziyal answered that it was impossible to make any predictions at this juncture, but that as the GOT began to evaluate its course, it was extremely important to know what the U.S. was thinking as well. Ziyal agreed that it was important not to take any actions that put the U.S. and Turkey immediately into a particular bind, as we work forward. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Having failed to achieve a positive vote on the Parliamentary resolution, the AK party will have to reconsider its situation beginning tomorrow. It will be faced soon with what should be sobering reactions, from the markets in particular, as Ziyal worries. One way forward could be for resubmission soon of a new resolution, but conceivably not until after Erdogan's expected victory in the Parliamentary by-election next Sunday (March 9) which could help the party begin pulling itself back together. PEARSON