OCALAN'S CONTINUED ISOLATION, POSSIBLE RETURN OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001303

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE


E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2008
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM TU PKK
SUBJECT: OCALAN'S CONTINUED ISOLATION, POSSIBLE RETURN OF
OHAL COULD SPARK TROUBLE IN SOUTHEAST

REF: A. ANKARA 972

B. ADANA 44


Classified by Polcouns John Kunstadter; reasons 1.5 b and d.



1. (C) Summary: Relatives and attorneys remain unable to
visit jailed PKK leader Ocalan; the last visit took place
November 27. The official GOT line is that stormy weather
has grounded the boat that takes visitors to Ocalan's island
prison, but some GOT officials privately acknowledge there
must be other factors at play. Human rights and Kurdish
activists have protested the situation, and there has been a
series of demonstrations over Ocalan's situation, sometimes
involving violence. GOT officials say the Government is
preoccupied with Iraq and Cyprus and is unlikely to address
the problem at this time. Meanwhile, there are concerns that
a return to a state of emergency in the southeast in the
event of war in Iraq will further stir tensions in the
region. End Summary.


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Ocalan's Isolation Continues
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2. (C) Jandarma officials continue to prevent lawyers and
relatives from visiting jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan;
the last such visit took place November 27 (reftels). The
GOT maintains that stormy weather has grounded the boat used
to shuttle visitors every Wednesday to Imrali Island in the
Sea of Marmara, where Ocalan is the only prisoner. The GOT
arranged for representatives of the European Committee for
the Prevention of Torture (CPT) to visit Ocalan by helicopter
February 17. The CPT officials reported Ocalan to be in good
health, but told reporters they did not believe weather was
the sole reason for his isolation. Demonstrations, sometimes
violent, protesting Ocalan's isolation continue across the
southeast (reftel B),as well as in Istanbul, Ankara and
other cities.


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HRA Investigates
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3. (C) Husnu Ondul, president of the Human Rights Association
(HRA),told Poloff February 26 that HRA investigated Ocalan's
situation at the request of relatives and attorneys. Ondul
said he and other HRA officials met for one hour with the
Chief Public Prosecutor of Bursa, who has authority over the
Imrali prison. The Jandarma commander in Gemlik, who
controls transportation to the island, refused to meet them.
Ondul noted the close ties between the Jandarma and the
Turkish General Staff (TGS),and argued that the military is
blocking access to Ocalan in a deliberate effort to stir
tension in the Kurdish community. It is true that the
Marmara is often subject to high winds during the winter
months, but the Jandarma could easily guarantee access to
Ocalan by providing a larger boat. While the small boat used
by Ocalan's visitors has been grounded the past three months,
thousands of Jandarma and prison officials have traveled to
the island in larger boats. Ondul said the visitors' boat is
unsafe for the five-hour trip to Imrali. The Gemlik Jandarma
commander February 26 allowed visitors to set sail for Imrali
for the first time in three months, but the boat was forced
to turn back, supposedly because of high waves. Two of
Ocalan's attorneys told Poloff the boat could have made the
trip.


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Official GOT Line Appears Dubious
--------------



4. (C) Kaan Esener, head of the MFA's Department of Council
of Europe Affairs, insisted in a meeting with Poloff that
weather was the sole reason for Ocalan's isolation. He
acknowledged Poloff's concerns about the demonstrations
sparked by the situation, and said he spent five days
arranging the CPT visit in an attempt to lower tensions. He
said he believed attorneys and relatives might be able to
finally visit Ocalan March 5, though he declined to
elaborate. However, Inan Ozyildiz, foreign affairs advisor
to the President, told Poloff separately the weather
explanation was "silly." He speculated that the military
might be concerned about Ocalan passing messages to PKK
terrorists (Note: According to a press report, one of
Ocalan's Imrali-bound lawyers was caught February 26 carrying
PKK-related documents hidden inside a newspaper. Ocalan
attorneys deny it. End Note). A Danish diplomat told Poloff
that, according to an AK Party contact, AK Chairman Erdogan
first learned of the Ocalan situation in mid-February and
angrily demanded it be resolved. If so, his demand has been
studiously ignored.


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State of Emergency Could Return to Southeast
--------------



5. (C) Ondul said he is also concerned about press reports
that the TGS has sent a letter to the Prime Ministry
recommending that a state of emergency be declared in six
southeastern provinces in the event of war in Iraq. He said
the southeast had been under some form of martial law for 24
years, and was finally freed when the state of emergency was
phased out November 30. A return to curfews, roadblocks and
intrusive searches could snuff out the people's newfound hope
and bring back the tensions of the mid-90s. Although a new
state of emergency would be tied to a war in Iraq, it could
easily be extended. The previous state of emergency was
introduced as a temporary measure, but was renewed for years
at four-month intervals.



6. (C) Ozyildiz and Esener -- as well as Interior Ministry
Secretary General Nazih Dogan -- asserted they are not aware

SIPDIS
of a proposal for a war-related state of emergency, while
acknowledging such a move would not surprise them. Despite
concerns about tensions in the southeast, Ozyildiz and Esener
claimed the Ocalan situation and the possibility of a state
of emergency are not among the GOT's main concerns at this
time. Esener does not believe the Ocalan situation can be
resolved while so many other high-profile issues are on the
agenda. "The government is worried about Iraq and Cyprus.
The last thing they want to hear about is Ocalan," he averred.


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Comment
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7. (C) There is clearly more than weather behind the policy
of isolating Ocalan. Speculation has centered on two
theories: 1) the military wants to prevent the PKK leader
from delivering messages; and 2) the military wants to
provoke conflict in order to justify a crackdown. Both of
these arguments appear to carry weight with elements of the
TGS and Jandarma. The people of Turkey's southeast do not
trust the government and will fear that any reimposition of a
state of emergency will mean a crackdown against them. For
this reason, it is especially important for the GOT to allow
Ocalan's visits to resume and lower tensions. Embassy will
continue to raise this issue with contacts.
PEARSON