ANKARA MEDIA REACTION REPORT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 000122 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EUR/SE, EUR/PD, NEA/PD, DRL JCS PASS J-5/CDR S. WRIGHT E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR TU SUBJECT: ANKARA MEDIA REACTION REPORT MONDAY, JANUARY 6, 2003 THIS REPORT WILL PRESENT A TURKISH PRESS SUMMARY UNDER THREE THEMES: HEADLINES BRIEFING EDITORIAL OPINION -------------- HEADLINES MASS APPEAL Yakis: Turkey may have rights over Mosul, Kirkuk - Hurriyet Gul: Peace is not unattainable - Turkiye Peace partnership with Syria - Aksam Gul in Egypt: Still a chance for peace - Vatan Turkish tanks in Iraq - Milliyet 1/5 Turkish buffer zone in Northern Iraq to prevent refugees - Milliyet 1/4 AKP afraid of Siirt elections - Sabah OPINION MAKERS Iraqi people afraid of a massacre - Cumhuriyet Britain to send 20,000 troops to Gulf - Cumhuriyet 1/5 Bush wants Saddam exiled - Cumhuriyet 1/4 Mubarak supports Turkey's peace effort - Radikal Damascus says `peace' - Radikal 1/5 Erdogan on Iraq: We don't want blood and tears - Yeni Safak 100,000 human shields against U.S. - Yeni Safak Blood bath in Israel: 22 dead - Zaman Best inflation figures of last 20 years - Radikal 1/4 FINANCIAL JOURNALS U.S. Iraq package: Share from reconstruction of Iraq - Dunya Iraq war will hit several economic sectors in Turkey - Finansal Forum BRIEFING Iraq: Prime Minister Gul met with Egyptian President Mubarak and Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa on Sunday on the second leg of his Mideast tour. Gul reportedly said that Iraq must convince the world that it possessed no weapons of mass destruction. President Mubarak has pledged to support Turkey's peace efforts, and announced that he will soon visit Turkey. Weekend papers report Prime Minister Gul's visit to Damascus on Saturday. Gul was received by the Syrian head of state, Bashar Assad, who reportedly warned the U.S. that an expanded operation against Iraq would upset the countries in the region. Gul has eased concern of Arab countries that Turkey wants to seize Mosul and Kirkuk, papers report. The Syrian foreign minister is expected in Turkey later this month. Sunday's "Milliyet" carries photos of over 30 Turkish tanks in Bamerni, Northern Iraq. Milliyet says that Turkish troops have been stationed at three different points inside Northern Iraq in order to prevent a wave of refugees and to halt terrorist infiltration through the Turkish border. In a front-page exclusive today, Foreign Minister Yakis told "Hurriyet" that after feeling the nation's pulse on the issue, the parliament is unlikely to approve a decision to support war against Iraq. Turkey has asked for a `modus operandi' with the U.S. for site surveys, Yakis said, because U.S. plans for upgrading Turkish bases cannot be carried out within the framework of NATO. The U.S. does not really want NATO involved in the process, he added, as NATO approval would be needed in each new phase of operations against Iraq. Yakis stressed that if disagreement over the legal framework of U.S. site surveys is not resolved, the government might have to seek parliamentary approval. He reiterated Turkish concerns over the autonomy of Northern Iraqi Kurdish groups and the status of the Turkomen. Mosul and Kirkuk belong to the Turkomen, Yakis emphasized, and Turkey is against the transfer of these oil-rich towns to a single ethnic group. Ankara is going examining international agreements to see whether Turkey still has claims regarding Mosul and Kirkuk, he noted. Ankara has given the U.S. the message that dealing with Iraq and the Cyprus issue simultaneously is a tough task, Yakis added. He said that Turkey has asked for U.S. support regarding Cyprus. U.S. promises `share' from Iraq's rebuilding: Monday's "Dunya" quotes a senior U.S. diplomat as saying that, based on studies done be leading international investment houses, reasonable estimates of Turkey's economic losses from a possible Iraq war range from $4-15 billion. Any U.S. assistance package for Turkey would be flexible, giving Turkey additional funds to draw on if losses increase, the U.S. diplomat said. He added that the U.S. economic support package aimed to maintain market confidence in Turkey, thereby minimizing the effects of an economic `shock' from a possible Iraq operation. The diplomat pointed out that Turkey would be in a good position to obtain lucrative construction contracts in a post-Saddam Iraq. The diplomat cautioned that in the event that Turkey refuses to cooperate with the U.S., some negative effects in U.S.-Turkey bilateral economic relations would be unavoidable, Dunya reports. Erdogan/Siirt elections: Papers report uncertainty within the AKP regarding Erdogan's participation in the March 9 Siirt elections. The AKP is afraid that pro-Kurdish DEHAP might form a coalition with the CHP and, together with the support from center-right parties, prevent Erdogan from being elected in Siirt. Consequently, the AKP leadership is considering having Erdogan run in an election in Gumushane province, where their party won 42 percent of the vote on November 3. Cyprus: Weekend papers report Erdogan as saying that Turkey prefers a mutually satisfactory solution for Cyprus rather than a one-sided one, and that negotiations should continue to solve the `40-year old problem.' `We must act sensibly for the sake of both peoples on the island,' Erdogan said. Turkish Cypriot leader Denktas, who threatened to resign at his meeting with political leaders in northern Cyprus, said he is encouraged by positive messages issued by President Sezer and Erdogan, according to papers. President Sezer said on Friday that rallies in the Turkish sector displayed the democratic structure of the regime, and that Denktas was being constructive when he said that the UN plan was negotiable. Public Procurement Law: Papers report that the government is working for changes to the public procurement law, which took effect on January 1. In the new draft, the ban on municipal tenders is removed. Contractors will be allowed to use machinery owned by the state in the construction of new motorways. Papers express concern that the suggested changes would weaken the law and serve as a blow to Turkey's efforts to reach EU standards. U.S. gives the PKK money: Workers' Party (IP) Chairman Dogu Perincek claimed that the U.S. has given $125 million to the PKK, "Cumhuriyet" reports. Basing his accusation on Russian sources and information provided by Serbian Socialist Party leader Pavkovic, Perincek charged that the U.S. gave the PKK $125,3 million of the total $500 million reserved for organizations in Northern Iraq on December 27, 2002. $200 million went to Barzani's KDP, and $175 million to Talabani's PUK, Perincek said. EDITORIAL OPINION: Iraq "Turkey toughens its stance on US demands" Sedat Ergin wrote in mass appeal Hurriyet (1/5): "AKP figures, particularly party leader Tayyip Erdogan, initially gave encouraging remarks to US officials about Turkey's military cooperation with the US in the event of a military operation. The US administration was convinced that the AKP government in Turkey would support its plan for toppling Saddam Hussein. . Well, that was the picture in December. Turkey has changed its stance over the past month. The concrete steps mentioned by Wolfowitz during his visit to Ankara in early December have not yet been undertaken. . For instance, Turkey and the US are in serious disagreement about the legal status of the site survey teams. The delay in the site survey program and on other issues certainly have a delaying effect on US military planning, which originally targeted an operation against Iraq in late February. . It is not only technical details which delay the process. The fact of the matter is that the AKP government is increasingly facing political problems within the party. The AKP grassroots and AKP deputies are not willing to support a US military operation against Iraq, and the government is unlikely to ensure parliamentary support for cooperation with the US. Public reservation about the war is also forcing the government to slow down its support for the US. It is also very likely that the US administration feels unhappy about the current diplomatic initiative taken by PM Gul in the Middle East. . The possibility of opening a military front in the north against Iraq is declining. The US will have problems in securing Turkish support on the airbases as well, because the government has tied such a decision to a second UNSC resolution. Given these facts, US military strategists might ultimately decide to plan on using only a single front in Southern Iraq." PEARSON