ANKARA MEDIA REACTION REPORT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 001074 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EUR/SE, EUR/PD, NEA/PD, DRL JCS PASS J-5/CDR S. WRIGHT E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR TU SUBJECT: ANKARA MEDIA REACTION REPORT TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 2003 THIS REPORT WILL PRESENT A TURKISH PRESS SUMMARY UNDER THREE THEMES: HEADLINES BRIEFING EDITORIAL OPINION -------------- HEADLINES MASS APPEAL Turkey and the US reach agreement on Military and Economic issues-Hurriyet US Finds the Turkish requests too much-Sabah Here is the "B" Plan- Turkiye US Will not start Renovation of bases and the ports until Parliament decides - Milliyet Papadopulos Knot in Cyprus!-Milliyet Elections in Cyprus bring uncertainty to Cyprus plan- Hurriyet OPINION MAKERS AKP's Bargaining on Iraq -Cumhuriyet Turkey extends its last offer to the US, US Warships Waiting for final decision-Zaman US Challenges Turkey-Radikal BRIEFING Iraq: The overall tone of press coverage is that time is running out, and that the US is becoming impatient about the delayed decision by parliament. US sources are saying that "Turkey better come up with a decision on whether to allow US troops, or we will implement a Plan B." Mass appeal Hurriyet's Washington reporter also quotes a "high level and very important US official" as saying that Turkey will have to pay the consequences if it fails to permit US troops, and that the US will never forget Turkey's decision. Turkish officials are reportedly "waiting for the right time" to make their case to the parliament. Most papers conclude that Turkey has forwarded more demands to the US in order to satisfy Turkish public opinion. "Hurriyet" outlined an agreement which is "close to being concluded" between the US and Turkey regarding possible military cooperation. Turkey will keep 15,000 soldiers in the oil-rich areas of Iraq in order to establish a buffer zone. Another 25-35,000 Turkish troops will be joining US troops for joint action elsewhere in northern Iraq. There will be a co-command authority, with one Turkish and one US general, Hurriyet reports. Meanwhile, all papers and TV channels cover the ongoing discussions between the US and Turkey on political, military and economic issues. "Zaman" reports that after parliament speaker Bulent Arinc announced that the decision regarding US troop deployments in Turkey would not be discussed in parliament today, concerns have been raised about US-Turkish ties. Most weekend papers evaluated FM Yakis and State Minister Babacan's sudden trip to the US as a "fruitless visit." Both ministers stated on their return that no agreement had been reached on the economic package, even after a meeting with President Bush. "Yeni Safak" reports that Turkey had asked the US for written guarantees on political, economic and military issues. The US' unwillingness to make any commitments about Turkish losses caused deep concern on the Turkish side. Cyprus: All papers cover the election results in Cyprus. "Vatan" says that the Turkish Cypriots are upset about the election victory of Tasos Papadopulos, a former EOKA activist. "Milliyet" reports that the victory of Papadopulos had caused worries about the future of the Cyprus talks. "NTV" quoted TRNC president Denktas as saying that "the solution to the Cyprus issue can hardly can be worked out with Papadopulos, who already declares himself president of the whole island." EDITORIAL OPINION: Iraq "US: Better make up your mind immediately" Mehmet Ali Birand noted in mass appeal Posta (2/18): "After spending some time in Washington, it seems to me that the Bush administration is very determined to go ahead with the Iraq operation with or without another UN resolution. It does not matter how strongly the Europeans oppose the U.S., and it does not matter whether Turkey is involved or not. The Iraq operation will be carried out and Saddam will be toppled. . Given the circumstances, the nature of the Turkish parliament's decision becomes historically important regarding Turkish-American relations. The US administration, feeling stabbed in the back by France and Germany, is now keeping a keen eye on Turkey. Americans are clearly warning that `time is almost up,' and that Turkey should come up with a decision. The Americans view it this way: `We did our best to meet Turkey's expectations, and that's it.' It seems that Ankara will have to produce a parliamentary decision in the end whether it likes it or not." "The American megalomania" Ahmet Tasgetiren argued in Islamic-intellectual Yeni Safak (2/18): "Turkey is facing a US threat based on messages coming from Washington: `Unless the Turkish parliament approves US military movements from Turkey to Iraq, a Plan B will be implemented.' If this message is about `paying the consequences,' it is not only Turkey but also the US that will pay a price. The US is currently facing a world-wide `common sense' opposition, and Washington has been aiming to tarnish Turkish common sense and pride." "Puzzle-ridden bargain between the US and Turkey" Sedat Ergin reviewed the latest developments in the US- Turkey negotiations under the following categories: A) Political document Turkey and the US are now debating a critical text related to the future of Iraq. Turkish and US officials continue to make adjustments in the draft. The document will contain a series of principles regarding the structure of a post-war Iraq. The document will regulate critical issues like the political and constitutional structure of Iraq, the status of the Turkomen, control of oil-rich areas, and the transfer of oil to international markets. It is not yet clear whether the document will come into effect through an exchange of letters between the US President and the Turkish Prime Minister, or will be prepared as a memorandum of understanding. B) Economic agreement This document will include pledges for the compensation of possible Turkish losses in the war by the US administration. There are serious differences between the parties on this issue. The US has increased the amount of proposed grants for Turkey from $4 billion to $6 billion. Half of this amount will be used to erase Turkey's military debt. In a meeting with Turkish ministers last week, President Bush stressed that the possible grant figure cannot go beyond the current US proposal. In addition, Washington is considering a proposal to give Turkey credits instead of grants. The US has offered to give Turkey up to $15 billion in credits. However, Turkey is cool to this formula because it would place an additional burden on the shoulders of Turkish taxpayers. Ankara is pushing for an increase in the grant figure. The US says that the Turkish estimate of $80 billion in losses for a five-year period after the war is not realistic. C) Agreement about the deployment of troops This agreement is related to the stationing of US troops in Turkey, their transition to northern Iraq and cooperation between Turkish and US troops in northern Iraq. The number of US troops to come to Turkey and the command of US and Turkish troops in northern Iraq is under discussion within this framework. D) Other protocols In addition to the main agreements, there is also bargaining about some other protocols as well as certain secret documents to be signed by the two parties. All the agreements are linked to each other. Progress in one of the issues might positively impact the others. If Turkey is not satisfied on the political issues, it might decline to meet US demands for military cooperation. E) Parliamentary permission The most important move to influence the outcome of the complicated bargaining is the pending parliamentary permission for the deployment of US troops in Turkey. The permission will come to parliament's agenda if a breakthrough is achieved in the bargaining process. At the same time, the parliamentary permission for the deployment of US troops will help progress on the other issues. F) US vessels waiting off Turkish territorial waters US vessels waiting off Turkish waters are an element of pressure in the bargaining. Washington says that the vessels will be sent to the southern front unless the Turkish parliament issues the necessary permission for the deployment of US troops today. Ankara assumes that the US cannot afford to abandon its plans for fighting on a northern front, and that the US is bluffing in its threat to send the vessels to the Persian Gulf. Turkey is using parliamentary permission for the deployment of US troops to exert pressure on the US. . In sum, the point where the parties stand right now indicates a deadlock." PEARSON