JORDANIANS WEARY ON THIRD ANNIVERSARY OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 006276 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2013 TAGS: KPAL PGOV IS JO SUBJECT: JORDANIANS WEARY ON THIRD ANNIVERSARY OF INTIFADAH, BUT WANTS THE U.S. TO KEEP TRYING REF: A. AMMAN 05941 ¶B. AMMAN 06000 Classified By: Ambassador Edward W. Gnehm for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) While the third anniversary of the al-Aqsa intifadah passed with little fanfare in Jordan, Jordanians remain frustrated with continuing violence and lack of movement toward a settlement. Beneath weariness, the most common themes we hear include the need to restrain Israeli security policies to give the Palestinian Authority a chance to succeed, the need to deal with an admittedly difficult Yassir Arafat, and a fear that the Israeli policies are increasing popular support for beleaguered resistance groups, especially HAMAS. Many worry that perceived U.S. government preoccupation with Iraq and the U.S. election season will lead Israel to believe it has a free hand to move against Palestinians with impunity. Senior GOJ officials, while agreeing that the U.S. must be the major catalyst for peace, will continue their efforts to get both Israelis and Palestinians to take the difficult steps necessary. Nearly all agreed that the U.S. must do more to promote a settlement. End Summary. -------------- --- INTIFADAH ANNIVERSARY PASSES WITH ONLY A WHIMPER -------------- --- ¶2. (SBU) Unlike in other parts of the Middle East, Jordanians did not mark the third anniversary of the al-Aqsa anniversary with protests. In fact, many Jordanians seemed not to notice the anniversary at all. Press coverage was low-key, and showcased such radical activities as commemorative poetry readings, "Arab activities," a movie about the "massacre" in Janin, and an evening of song. -------------- GOJ WEARY, BUT WILL KEEP ON TRYING -------------- ¶3. (C) In public remarks that coincided with (but did not mark) the anniversary, Foreign Minister Muasher criticized both Israelis and Palestinians for failing to live up to their roadmap commitments, but did not declare the plan dead -- yet. In an interview with London-based al-Hayat, Muasher said that the U.S. needs a monitoring mechanism to check the performance of the parties vis-a-vis their roadmap obligations, and that a PA crackdown on resistance groups "should not be a prerequisite to resumption of implementing the roadmap." Reflecting on the third anniversary of the beginning of the intifadah, Ali al-Ayed, Muasher's Private Office Director, borrowed a line from King Abdallah's trip to the U.S: "No one has done enough (to end to the violence) -- not you, not us, not Sharon, not the Palestinians." Ayed pledged continued GOJ efforts to push both the Israelis and Palestinians toward peace -- and to remind the USG to do its part as well. -------------- U.S. MUST RESTRAIN ISRAEL -------------- ¶4. (C) In contrast with the weary determination of the government, many of our Jordanian contacts expressed greater angst that the United States appears unable or unwilling to rein in Israel which -- as they see it -- bears the lion's share of responsibility for the continuing violence. They warn that the ongoing targeted assassinations, destruction of homes and property, strict closures, and the separation wall will create a new set of humanitarian problems and not solve Israel's security problems in the long run. ¶5. (C) Noting that more than 3,000 Palestinians and 800 Israelis have died since the start of this intifadah, Dr. Ibrahim Badran, Director of International Relations at Philadelphia University, told Poloff that Abu Ala'a is capable of consolidating his power and controlling the militant groups only if Israel reciprocates with immediate positive gestures that show the Palestinian public his efforts are bearing fruit. Former Prime Minister Taher al-Masri told Poloff that Jordanians worry Sharon may take advantage of the U.S. election season and preoccupation with Iraq to create such terrible living conditions in the West Bank that the number of Palestinians seeking to relocate to Jordan could increase. (Comment: a weathered re-run of the pre-war concern of a large-scale Israeli "transfer" of Palestinians to Jordan. End Comment.) -------------- ARAFAT IS PART OF THE PROBLEM... -------------- ¶6. (C) None of our contacts had any kind words for Yassir Arafat or his leadership of the Palestinian people. Long-time MP Abdul Karim Dughmi pronounced Arafat a "liar" more concerned with his personal prerogatives and popularity than Palestinian statehood. MP Mohammad Shawbkeh accused Arafat of rampant corruption and doubted whether Arafat really was prepared to do what is necessary to achieve the goal of a Palestinian state. -------------- ...BUT MUST BE PART OF THE SOLUTION -------------- ¶7. (C) At the same time, most argued that Arafat must be brought into any peace process for it to be successful. MPs Abdallah al-Jazi and Mufleh al-Rhaimi told us that Arafat retains broad loyalty within the PNA and among Palestinians at home and abroad, and thus has power to thwart any agreement. Consequently, they argued, the U.S. must deal with Arafat. Jordanian columnist and former MP Hamadeh Faraneh (a Fatah member) says that by ordering Arafat's expulsion and musing about possible assassination, the Israelis boosted Arafat's flagging popularity and pushed even critics of Arafat, including the Jordanian government, the Islamic Action Front, and HAMAS, to his defense. All concluded that the U.S. should draw Arafat into a solution and twist his arm to do what is necessary. -------------- --- ISRAELI ACTIONS FUEL SUPPORT FOR HAMAS IN JORDAN -------------- --- ¶8. (C) Jordanians are quick to deplore HAMAS's terrorist tactics, but many in the next breath express understanding for them given the harsh conditions under which Palestinians live. Many also argue that HAMAS also is an important political and social movement that provides needed services -- such as health care, garbage collection, and rebuilding assistance -- that the Palestinian Authority cannot. Dr. Badran argued that given this positive side to HAMAS, Israeli attacks on senior HAMAS leaders perceived as "moderate" have only rallied popular support to HAMAS's side. The Israeli approach, which has not succeeded in stopping suicide bombings, will only complicate Abu Ala'a's efforts to confront and disarm the militants, he asserted. ¶9. (C) The sentiment permeates the recently-elected Parliament. Following Parliament's condemnation of the EU decision to label HAMAS a terrorist group, MPs again rallied to HAMAS's side last week to deplore the government's decision to freeze HAMAS's assets in Jordan (reftels). Seventy out of 110 MPs signed a letter to the Parliament's speaker demanding that Central Bank Governor Umaya Touqan -- who issued the freeze order -- be discharged for "recklessness in making the account freeze decision and harming the country's reputation." Some appeared mollified by the government's clumsy retraction of the decision, but others demanded that Touqan be held accountable for what they believed was a decision made "without the prime minister or government's knowledge." Others, such as MP Abdallah Akaileh (Tafileh),went further, accusing Touqan of being "a tool in American hands." -------------- COMMENT: JORDANIANS STILL LOOK TO THE U.S. -------------- ¶10. (C) Despite the dour mood surrounding the current situation, Dr. Badran says there are Jordanians -- particularly in his academic circles -- who wish to play a constructive role in supporting political efforts to restart the process. Peace activist Gen. (R) Mansour Abu Rashid of the Amman Center for Peace and Development says his organization continues to sponsor workshops aimed at continuing the dialogue between Jordanians and Israelis (although most Jordanian participants insist that their attendance not be publicized). While Jordanians often express disappointment with U.S. policy in the Middle East and sadness as the intifadah enters its fourth year, most still retain the hope that the U.S. --building on President Bush's vision of two states living side by side in peace and security -- can engineer movement toward a settlement. Visit Embassy Amman's classified website at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman/ or access the site through the State Department's SIPRNET home page. GNEHM