REPATRIATION OF IRAQIS: VIEWS FROM JORDAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 003515

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR NEA/NGA AND PRM, GENEVA FOR RMA, OCPA FOR JONES
AND LAPENN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/11/2013
TAGS: PREF PREL IZ JO
SUBJECT: REPATRIATION OF IRAQIS: VIEWS FROM JORDAN

REF: A. STATE 145785

B. POLASCHIK/LAPENN JUNE 8 E-MAIL

Classified By: DCM Greg Berry, per 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: According to the GOJ, between 22,000 and
23,000 Iraqis have returned voluntarily from Jordan since
hostilities began. Neither UNHCR nor the GOJ is pushing for
the quick return of the 250,000 to 300,000 Iraqis resident in
Jordan; both want to wait until security conditions improve
in Iraq before organizing assisted returns. At the same
time, however, the GOJ has waived all overstay fines for
illegal Iraqis returning to Iraq -- provided they agree not
to return to Jordan for five years. In spite of the ongoing
spontaneous returns, not one single Iraqi has approached
UNHCR to register for an assisted return; UNHCR believes
continuing security problems in Iraq and UNHCR's lack of
publicity regarding return options are responsible. UNHCR
does not want to engage in return discussions with the GOJ or
implementing partners until security conditions in Iraq
improve and UNHCR/Iraq is able to receive returnees. UNHCR
anticipates that small-scale spontaneous returns will
continue over the next two to three months, with
UNHCR-assisted returns beginning in September at the
earliest. UNHCR is planning for the return of 70,000 Iraqis
from Jordan over the next six months. Separately, Jordan
will continue to serve as a transit point for Iraqis
returning from Europe; IOM will resume its Assisted Voluntary
Return program June 12-13 with a group of 12 Iraqis. IOM
believes that up to 100,000 Iraqis could return from Europe
over the next year. End summary.

UP TO 23,000 SPONTANEOUS RETURNS FROM JORDAN
--------------


2. (C) According to Minister of State for Foreign Affairs
Shaher Bak, between 22,000 and 23,000 Iraqis have returned
from Jordan since hostilities began in March. Bak noted that
the initial 5,000 to 7,000 returnees in the early days of
hostilities were in "another category," security-related
deportations and presumed fighters. (NOTE: The GOJ is
sharing a much lower figure -- 7,200 returnees -- with UNHCR
and IOM.) Both Bak and UNHCR Representative Sten Bronee
commented separately that a large number of Iraqis may now be
traveling between Iraq and Jordan in search of business
opportunities or scouting out conditions for the return of
other family members. (NOTE: UNHCR has sought coalition
forces' assistance in monitoring returns from Jordan to Iraq,
preparing a draft survey for use by coalition forces at the
Karameh/Trebil border post. Embassy Amman's HACC is working
to develop appropriate monitoring procedures.)

NO GOJ PRESSURE AND NO IRAQI INTEREST IN UNHCR HELP
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Neither the GOJ nor UNHCR is pressing for the quick
return of the estimated 250,000 to 300,000 Iraqis currently
resident in Jordan. Minister of State for Foreign Affairs
Shaher Bak has repeatedly told UNHCR that the GOJ wants to
wait until conditions improve in Iraq before organizing
assisted returns. Bak repeated this message in a June 12
meeting with DCM and refcoord, pledging explicitly that the
GOJ "would not force Iraqis out." Once security conditions
and stability in Iraq has improved, Bak continued, the GOJ
would work with international organizations to organize
assisted returns. Until then, the GOJ is beginning
preparations, working with the Ministries of Interior and
Labor to identify all Iraqis resident in Jordan as well as
their particular legal status. Bak predicted that many, but
not all Iraqis currently resident in Jordan would wish to
return to Iraq. In order to encourage the return of Iraqis
ready and willing to leave Jordan, the GOJ reportedly has
agreed to waive all fines resulting from illegal overstays --
provided the Iraqis do not return to Jordan for five years.
However, Bak told emboffs the GOJ would not publicize this
policy until it was ready to implement large-scale, organized
returns. Given the GOJ's relaxed attitude about the largely
illegal Iraqi population, UNHCR staff and other observers are
beginning to speculate that the GOJ might, in fact, want
illegal Iraqi laborers to remain in Jordan and continue to
play their key role in the grey economy.


4. (U) In spite of the ongoing spontaneous returns, UNHCR
reports that not one single Iraqi has approached UNHCR to
register for repatriation. Bronee believes that Iraqis in
Jordan will remain uninterested in organized, voluntary
repatriation programs as long as security remains problematic
inside Iraq. He noted that word already is circulating in
the refugee community of a May 30 incident in which a busload
of 30 Palestinian refugees, returning to Baghdad from UNHCR's
refugee camp at Ruweished, was robbed of all money and
luggage near Ramadi, Iraq. Similarly, in meetings with
UNHCR's existing Iraqi caseload, more than 500 Iraqi refugees
told UNHCR they were not willing to return to Iraq and would
insist upon resettlement in a third country.


5. (U) Bronee speculated that some of the Iraqi disinterest
in voluntary repatriation could be due to the fact that UNHCR
has not yet undertaken a concerted publicity campaign in
Jordan; perhaps, he wondered, Iraqis simply are not aware of
their options? But given continuing security difficulties
inside Iraq and the GOJ's willingness to allow Iraqis to
remain in Jordan, Bronee continued, he is unwilling to begin
the repatriation process prematurely, by advertising programs
and possibilities before conditions are appropriate.

NO ORGANIZED RETURNS BEFORE SEPTEMBER
AND NO DISCUSSIONS TIL CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT
--------------


6. (U) Bronee expects small-scale spontaneous returns to
continue over the next two to three months, with
UNHCR-organized returns beginning in September at the
earliest. UNHCR/Iraq Representative Daniel Bellamy told
Bronee that UNHCR/Iraq staff would be unable to receive
assisted returns before September at the earliest. Yet UNHCR
continues to use 70,000 returns from Jordan over the next six
months as its planning figure, a calculation Bronee admits is
purely a guess.


7. (SBU) UNHCR asked the GOJ in an April 14 diplomatic note
for "closer discussions" on organized return programs, but
has not yet gotten a response. Bronee said he is reluctant
to push the GOJ for a dialogue at this point, as the status
quo -- GOJ willingness to allow Iraqis to remain in Jordan --
will remain necessary until security conditions in Iraq
improve and UNHCR/Iraq is ready to receive returnees. Bronee
and IOM Representative Georgette Hoshe have had preliminary
discussions regarding possible cooperation on return
programs, but subsequently agreed that their respective
headquarters must agree on a division of labor throughout the
region. UNHCR has had limited discussions with NGOs
International Relief and Development (IRD) and Caritas/Jordan
regarding possible return programs but has not even begun the
process of identifying implementing partners. (Both IRD and
Caritas plan to seek PRM funding.)

IOM: JORDAN AS TRANSIT POINT FOR RETURNEES FROM EUROPE;
100,000 POSSIBLE OVER NEXT 12 MONTHS
-------------- --------------


8. (U) Separately, it is likely that Jordan will continue to
serve as a key transit point for Iraqis returning from third
countries, at least until Baghdad International Airport
reopens for commercial flights -- and possibly longer.
Before the war, IOM used Royal Jordanian flights to transport
Iraqis from Europe to Jordan and then onto Iraq, making
Jordan's role in the return process into little more than a
transit stop. However, with no commercial flights into
Baghdad, IOM now plans to fly Iraqi returnees to Amman and
then send them overland to Baghdad. IOM Representative
Georgette Hoshe reports that IOM has excellent cooperation
with the GOJ on its Assisted Voluntary Return (AVR) program
for Iraqis, with the GOJ providing transit visas and police
escort.


9. (U) Hoshe informed refcoord on June 8 that IOM would
resume its AVR program on June 12 and 13, facilitating the
return of 12 Iraqi nationals from Europe (ref b). Under the
program, IOM provides Iraqi nationals transportation from
Amman to Baghdad, plus a reintegration grant of USD 3500 per
person. For this initial group, IOM will distribute the
reintegration grant in Amman; future returnees will receive
their grants in Baghdad. Hoshe predicted that the return of
Iraqis from Europe and other third countries would continue
on a small scale over the next two to three months, as Iraqis
test their luck and scout out opportunities for family
members remaining abroad. She noted that all returnees in
this initial group were single men. Hoshe believes increased
numbers of Iraqi returns will not happen before November and
is planning on running an AVR program in Jordan through June

2004. She predicted that the number of Iraqis returning from
Europe could reach 100,000.


10. (U) CPA Baghdad minimize considered.
GNEHM