REPATRIATION OF IRAQIS: VIEWS FROM JORDAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 003515 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR NEA/NGA AND PRM, GENEVA FOR RMA, OCPA FOR JONES AND LAPENN E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/11/2013 TAGS: PREF PREL IZ JO SUBJECT: REPATRIATION OF IRAQIS: VIEWS FROM JORDAN REF: A. STATE 145785 ¶B. POLASCHIK/LAPENN JUNE 8 E-MAIL Classified By: DCM Greg Berry, per 1.5 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: According to the GOJ, between 22,000 and 23,000 Iraqis have returned voluntarily from Jordan since hostilities began. Neither UNHCR nor the GOJ is pushing for the quick return of the 250,000 to 300,000 Iraqis resident in Jordan; both want to wait until security conditions improve in Iraq before organizing assisted returns. At the same time, however, the GOJ has waived all overstay fines for illegal Iraqis returning to Iraq -- provided they agree not to return to Jordan for five years. In spite of the ongoing spontaneous returns, not one single Iraqi has approached UNHCR to register for an assisted return; UNHCR believes continuing security problems in Iraq and UNHCR's lack of publicity regarding return options are responsible. UNHCR does not want to engage in return discussions with the GOJ or implementing partners until security conditions in Iraq improve and UNHCR/Iraq is able to receive returnees. UNHCR anticipates that small-scale spontaneous returns will continue over the next two to three months, with UNHCR-assisted returns beginning in September at the earliest. UNHCR is planning for the return of 70,000 Iraqis from Jordan over the next six months. Separately, Jordan will continue to serve as a transit point for Iraqis returning from Europe; IOM will resume its Assisted Voluntary Return program June 12-13 with a group of 12 Iraqis. IOM believes that up to 100,000 Iraqis could return from Europe over the next year. End summary. UP TO 23,000 SPONTANEOUS RETURNS FROM JORDAN -------------- ¶2. (C) According to Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Shaher Bak, between 22,000 and 23,000 Iraqis have returned from Jordan since hostilities began in March. Bak noted that the initial 5,000 to 7,000 returnees in the early days of hostilities were in "another category," security-related deportations and presumed fighters. (NOTE: The GOJ is sharing a much lower figure -- 7,200 returnees -- with UNHCR and IOM.) Both Bak and UNHCR Representative Sten Bronee commented separately that a large number of Iraqis may now be traveling between Iraq and Jordan in search of business opportunities or scouting out conditions for the return of other family members. (NOTE: UNHCR has sought coalition forces' assistance in monitoring returns from Jordan to Iraq, preparing a draft survey for use by coalition forces at the Karameh/Trebil border post. Embassy Amman's HACC is working to develop appropriate monitoring procedures.) NO GOJ PRESSURE AND NO IRAQI INTEREST IN UNHCR HELP -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Neither the GOJ nor UNHCR is pressing for the quick return of the estimated 250,000 to 300,000 Iraqis currently resident in Jordan. Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Shaher Bak has repeatedly told UNHCR that the GOJ wants to wait until conditions improve in Iraq before organizing assisted returns. Bak repeated this message in a June 12 meeting with DCM and refcoord, pledging explicitly that the GOJ "would not force Iraqis out." Once security conditions and stability in Iraq has improved, Bak continued, the GOJ would work with international organizations to organize assisted returns. Until then, the GOJ is beginning preparations, working with the Ministries of Interior and Labor to identify all Iraqis resident in Jordan as well as their particular legal status. Bak predicted that many, but not all Iraqis currently resident in Jordan would wish to return to Iraq. In order to encourage the return of Iraqis ready and willing to leave Jordan, the GOJ reportedly has agreed to waive all fines resulting from illegal overstays -- provided the Iraqis do not return to Jordan for five years. However, Bak told emboffs the GOJ would not publicize this policy until it was ready to implement large-scale, organized returns. Given the GOJ's relaxed attitude about the largely illegal Iraqi population, UNHCR staff and other observers are beginning to speculate that the GOJ might, in fact, want illegal Iraqi laborers to remain in Jordan and continue to play their key role in the grey economy. ¶4. (U) In spite of the ongoing spontaneous returns, UNHCR reports that not one single Iraqi has approached UNHCR to register for repatriation. Bronee believes that Iraqis in Jordan will remain uninterested in organized, voluntary repatriation programs as long as security remains problematic inside Iraq. He noted that word already is circulating in the refugee community of a May 30 incident in which a busload of 30 Palestinian refugees, returning to Baghdad from UNHCR's refugee camp at Ruweished, was robbed of all money and luggage near Ramadi, Iraq. Similarly, in meetings with UNHCR's existing Iraqi caseload, more than 500 Iraqi refugees told UNHCR they were not willing to return to Iraq and would insist upon resettlement in a third country. ¶5. (U) Bronee speculated that some of the Iraqi disinterest in voluntary repatriation could be due to the fact that UNHCR has not yet undertaken a concerted publicity campaign in Jordan; perhaps, he wondered, Iraqis simply are not aware of their options? But given continuing security difficulties inside Iraq and the GOJ's willingness to allow Iraqis to remain in Jordan, Bronee continued, he is unwilling to begin the repatriation process prematurely, by advertising programs and possibilities before conditions are appropriate. NO ORGANIZED RETURNS BEFORE SEPTEMBER AND NO DISCUSSIONS TIL CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT -------------- ¶6. (U) Bronee expects small-scale spontaneous returns to continue over the next two to three months, with UNHCR-organized returns beginning in September at the earliest. UNHCR/Iraq Representative Daniel Bellamy told Bronee that UNHCR/Iraq staff would be unable to receive assisted returns before September at the earliest. Yet UNHCR continues to use 70,000 returns from Jordan over the next six months as its planning figure, a calculation Bronee admits is purely a guess. ¶7. (SBU) UNHCR asked the GOJ in an April 14 diplomatic note for "closer discussions" on organized return programs, but has not yet gotten a response. Bronee said he is reluctant to push the GOJ for a dialogue at this point, as the status quo -- GOJ willingness to allow Iraqis to remain in Jordan -- will remain necessary until security conditions in Iraq improve and UNHCR/Iraq is ready to receive returnees. Bronee and IOM Representative Georgette Hoshe have had preliminary discussions regarding possible cooperation on return programs, but subsequently agreed that their respective headquarters must agree on a division of labor throughout the region. UNHCR has had limited discussions with NGOs International Relief and Development (IRD) and Caritas/Jordan regarding possible return programs but has not even begun the process of identifying implementing partners. (Both IRD and Caritas plan to seek PRM funding.) IOM: JORDAN AS TRANSIT POINT FOR RETURNEES FROM EUROPE; 100,000 POSSIBLE OVER NEXT 12 MONTHS -------------- -------------- ¶8. (U) Separately, it is likely that Jordan will continue to serve as a key transit point for Iraqis returning from third countries, at least until Baghdad International Airport reopens for commercial flights -- and possibly longer. Before the war, IOM used Royal Jordanian flights to transport Iraqis from Europe to Jordan and then onto Iraq, making Jordan's role in the return process into little more than a transit stop. However, with no commercial flights into Baghdad, IOM now plans to fly Iraqi returnees to Amman and then send them overland to Baghdad. IOM Representative Georgette Hoshe reports that IOM has excellent cooperation with the GOJ on its Assisted Voluntary Return (AVR) program for Iraqis, with the GOJ providing transit visas and police escort. ¶9. (U) Hoshe informed refcoord on June 8 that IOM would resume its AVR program on June 12 and 13, facilitating the return of 12 Iraqi nationals from Europe (ref b). Under the program, IOM provides Iraqi nationals transportation from Amman to Baghdad, plus a reintegration grant of USD 3500 per person. For this initial group, IOM will distribute the reintegration grant in Amman; future returnees will receive their grants in Baghdad. Hoshe predicted that the return of Iraqis from Europe and other third countries would continue on a small scale over the next two to three months, as Iraqis test their luck and scout out opportunities for family members remaining abroad. She noted that all returnees in this initial group were single men. Hoshe believes increased numbers of Iraqi returns will not happen before November and is planning on running an AVR program in Jordan through June ¶2004. She predicted that the number of Iraqis returning from Europe could reach 100,000. ¶10. (U) CPA Baghdad minimize considered. GNEHM