JORDAN ELECTION MISCELLANY: LAST FULL WEEK OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 003513

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/12/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL JO
SUBJECT: JORDAN ELECTION MISCELLANY: LAST FULL WEEK OF
CAMPAIGNING

REF: AMMAN 3078

Classified By: DCM Gregory L. Berry. Reasons 1.5(B) and (D)

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ISLAMIC ACTION FRONT (IAF) THREATENS LAST MINUTE BOYCOTT
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1. (C) Front page news in Jordan's English daily, The Jordan
Times, details the IAF's last minute threat to boycott the
elections due to perceived bias against it by the GOJ. IAF
Secretary General Hamzeh Mansour accuses the government of

SIPDIS
bias against his party by alleging that the government made
voter lists available to non-IAF candidates. Interior
Minister Qaftan Majali denied the accusations, saying that
voter lists were available for public view at the Civil
Status and Passport Department.

(Comment: One candidate told us this week that he had sent 10
volunteers to hand-copy voter lists for his constituency
while they were on public display. End Comment.)

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WORRIES ABOUT VOTER APATHY
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2. (C) PolOffs heard over and over this week that Jordanians
are disillusioned and uninterested in the election process,
though there are areas where campaigning seems lively as in
Aqaba and Ajlun. The highest levels of apathy seem to be
among 18-25 year olds. Many Embassy contacts again explained
that the degree of apathy is directly related to the level of
frustration found in Jordan's streets. Dr. Suleiman
Aaribiyat, an Embassy contact from Salt and political
analyst, stated that many people want the GOJ to understand
that by not voting they are sending a message that they are
"frustrated and dissatisfied".


3. (U) In an effort to address the indifference of the youth
to the upcoming elections, the EU funded and launched in
Amman a media awareness campaign using the popular cartoon
figure Abu Mahjoob. The cartoon character appears on
bulletin boards and in newspaper advertisements with four
basic messages: encouraging youth to vote, urging them to
vote for the most qualified candidates, saying that women can
make good candidates and finally telling young people to
trust institutions such as parliament. Many observers think,
however, that the GOJ is doing too little too late to
encourage participation.


4. (C) On June 10 Refcoord met with GOJ Department of
Palestinian Affairs Director General Abdulkarim Abulhaija who
confided that the GOJ is concerned about the high level of
voter apathy. On orders from the PM, Abulhaija has been
visiting Palestinian refugee camps in a "get out the vote
campaign" encouraging the refugees not just to vote, but to
show their support for the government's agenda. The reaction
has been lukewarm with most refugees--like most Jordanians,
Abulhaija said--believing the parliament and the elections
have little impact on their daily lives. Jordanians believe
that the government, rather than the parliament, makes
policy. In order to have meaningful elections, Abulhaija
continued, this perception is going to have to change.

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CANDIDATE PROFILES
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5. (C) There is excitement in some quarters, however, POLOFF
met with Ra'ed Qaqish, a 40 year old graphic designer running
for parliament for the first time in Salt's first district.
Ra'ed holds degrees from the U.S. and a Ph.D. from the UK.
He is articulate, enthusiastic about his chances to win, and
describes himself as a new face with new ideas for Jordan.
He is running against 6 other candidates for Salt's two
Christian seats. He is counting on the support of his
tribe's 920 votes while using slogans such as "Jordan and
Modernity" which he says alludes to his belief that Jordan
must "get away" from its entrenched tribal system (the same
system he is counting on to win a seat in the next
parliament). He has been planning his campaign strategy for
months: he has set up a website, placed banners all over the
city, and produced fliers and business cards, and placed
t-shirts emblazoned with his likeness and name. For election
day, he has rented buses and cars to pick up voters and take
them to voting centers. His goals if elected will be to
tackle the problems of unemployment, poverty and a rising
drinking and drug problem in Salt. He is concerned about the
issue of "vote buying" which he claims is common in Salt and
said votes are being bought for between 20 to 50 Jordanian
dinars (30 to 70 U.S. dollars).


6. (C) POLOFF also met with Feryal Rabidi, a Christian woman
running for the Christian quota seat in Ajlun. Again, she is
counting on the family's support and was confident she would
win although she is running against her cousin. She
estimates that, unlike other parts of the country, voter
turnout in Ajlun could be as high as 65%, due to the
influence of the tribal system. She claimed that the going
price for a vote in Ajlun was 5 JD (7 U.S. dollars) with many
poor families "supporting" several competing candidates as a
way to earn additional income.

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ELECTION DAY POLLING
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7. (C) Hani Hourani, director of an Amman NGO, informed
PolOff that he would conduct an unofficial exit poll on
election day. He had received no governmental backing and
was short on funds. He stressed that the expected low
turnout on June 17 was a worrisome development for the GOJ
since such a lethargic showing at the polls would give the
King less political cover. He also explained how in past
elections the Bedouin areas (loyal supporters of the King)
would have 85-90% voter turnout and now expects 50-60%
turnouts in these areas.

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COMMENT
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8. (C) We do not/not expect IAF candidates--who are already
registered, campaigning, and on ballots--to withdraw from the
elections. The consensus within the IAF and associated
Muslim Brotherhood is that the IAF lost an important
political voice by boycotting the 1997 parliamentary
elections.
GNEHM