TFIZ01: JORDANIANS DAZED AND CONFUSED OVER HOW TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002205 SIPDIS NEA/ARN, NEA/PPD E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2013 TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ JO SUBJECT: TFIZ01: JORDANIANS DAZED AND CONFUSED OVER HOW TO REACT TO END OF SADDAM REF: A. AMMAN 2179 ¶B. AMMAN 2032 Classified By: AMBASSADOR EDWARD W. GNEHM. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The day after Saddam's statue crashed down in Fardous Square in Baghdad, Jordanians are mostly confused and unsure how to react, especially in front of Americans. Many tell us they are stunned that Baghdad "fell so easily" to the "invaders." The most cynical -- yet heartfelt-- remark is that the Arabs have been "defeated", yet again. The first rumor out of the gate is a conspiracy theory that the USG gave Saddam amnesty and safe passage from Iraq in return for "surrender" of Iraqi resistance. However, some, mostly in the business community, are able to view the virtual collapse of the Iraqi regime as an opportunity. ¶2. (C) Even among the pragmatists who see the virtue of Saddam's fall, the presumption of bad USG intentions remains well entrenched. Skeptical eyes are now increasingly looking toward "what next," with a heavy focus on the "record" of Jay Garner as a "Zionist and friend of Sharon," and an intensified focus on whether the U.S. will fulfill its promises to move forward on Roadmap implementation. END SUMMARY. -------------- THE VIEW FROM THE WORKING CLASS -------------- ¶3. (C) Most contacts report a "sense of confusion." Even though most are quick to proclaim they are glad Saddam is gone, they confess to feelings of "wounded Arab pride" and despair that "invaders" have had their way again. There is anger at Saddam for "misleading" the Arab people. Dr. Fawzi Samhoury, a human rights activist, told PolOff April 10 that people are confused more than anything else, and appear to be waiting for someone (i.e. local pundits and political leaders) to "tell them how to interpret this." He said "the leaders of the (mostly Islamist) professional associations were absolutely stunned yesterday. They have no idea what to do now. Where are the 6,000 Islamic fighters, they asked. Where are the Iraqi tanks?" They vented anger on Saddam for "doing this to his people when he knew they could only end up humiliated by the Americans." According to Samhoury, there was immediate speculation among professional association leaders that Saddam must be an "agent" for the USG. ¶4. (C) On April 10 PolOff met with Fathallah Omrani, President of Jordan's textile workers union. Omrani had just come from a morning coffee with some of his union members, and reiterated their view of the Iraq situation. There was confusion and disappointment, he said, that Saddam didn't put up a bigger fight, that the US didn't suffer more for its "aggression." He said that among the textile workers, the number one conspiracy theory is that Saddam made a "deal" with the USG and was given asylum and transport out of Iraq in return for the "surrender" of Iraqi forces. ¶5. (C) Many simply cannot believe that the "invaders" are being greeted with warmth by the Iraqis. "How can they just walk into our cities and get received like that?" one young woman stammered. Local media editorials are best described as bewildered and bitter (reftel A),with the Jordan Times editorial saying "Iraqis' relief at what is possibly the nearing end of both the war and the regime does not mean that this aggression was ever just or right, nor that a US occupation is welcomed." ¶6. (C) Despite mixed, unclear emotions on the fall of Saddam, Jordanian feelings are crystal clear on the human costs of the war. The local media continues to focus on the death of journalist Tarek Ayoub, noting his widow's "rejection" of a condolence message from CENTCOM. The media is also now engrossed in daily reporting on the "nefarious" or "Zionist" background of Jay Garner and his "association" with Israeli PM Ariel Sharon. One former MP told PolCouns April 10 that some of his campaign workers spun for him a conspiracy in which Garner's appointment is the "first step" in a "Zionist plot" to create "greater Israel from the Nile to the Tigris." -------------- THE FEW PRAGMATISTS SEE OPPORTUNITY, VICTORY -------------- ¶7. (C) Omrani (para 3) said he was "very glad" Saddam was gone. "I was, and still am a little bit, worried about the QIZ investment and my workers. But things are definitely moving in the right direction now. We need people in America and the west to look at Jordan on the map and not see it as a country between two raging battlefields, but instead as a peaceful, safe place to invest." One small-scale Jordanian steel manufacturer emailed EconOff with a message of congratulations, and noted that he hoped Iraq would become "an oasis of democracy and prosperity in the region." ¶8. (U) The Embassy also received extravagant bouquets of flowers from a group of local Iraqi INC representatives, thanking the US for liberating their country. Note: today's floral bouquet score: USA 3, France 0. End note. -------------- U.S. NEEDS TO MOVE QUICKLY TO HELP IRAQIS -------------- ¶9. (C) Senator Saed Hayel Surour and former MP Naif Mawla told PolCouns separately April 10 that Jordanian attention will quickly move away from thoughts of war. The U.S., Surour argued, has 3-4 weeks to prove to Jordanians the good intent of the U.S. in Iraq. Reopening schools, distributing food, and restoring electricity and water must be the top priorities of the U.S. ¶10. (C) In addition, Surour and Mawla argued, the U.S. cannot be seen as "replacing one dictator with another." It will be crucial for the U.S. to find Iraqi political figures to whom they can turn over the country. Surour singled out INC leader Ahmed Chalabi as the kind of "corrupt" outside leader that could be seen as "being imposed on Iraq by the U.S." -------------- AND PRESENT THE ROADMAP ALREADY -------------- ¶11. (C) Surour and Mawla both said the most important thing the U.S. could do to restore some trust would be to release the Quartet Roadmap immediately, then press Israel and the Palestinians to implement it. "Liberating Palestine," Mawla declared, would be the perfect counterpart to "liberating Iraq." -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (C) After weeks of anti-USG rhetoric and predictions of U.S. defeat at the gates of Baghdad, many contacts are suffering from "wounded pride," are confused, and unsure how to interpret the recent events in "a proper Arab way." Some, however, who were all along searching for the light at the end of the tunnel (reftel B),are clearheaded enough to see the opportunity of a new Iraq. ¶13. (C) We have, for the moment, gained the initiative. The local pragmatists who predicted that Jordanians would "turn on Saddam" once it is clear he is finished appear to have been correct. However, we need to work quickly to counter the local presumption of bad intentions, especially as regards the interim administration, humanitarian relief, and movement on the peace process. GNEHM