TFIZ01. JORDANIAN STREET ON THE EVE OF WAR:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 001685

SIPDIS

NEA/PPA, NEA/ARN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2013
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV JO
SUBJECT: TFIZ01. JORDANIAN STREET ON THE EVE OF WAR:
DESPONDENT, ANGRY, CYNICAL

Classified By: AMBASSADOR EDWARD W. GNEHM. REASONS: 1.5 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. On the eve of likely coalition military
action against Iraq, the mood in Jordan is resigned to war,
but nevertheless very angry. Although the street is
relatively quiet, EmbOffs' conversations with Jordanians on
the subject of USG policy, while often beginning politely,
invariably result in emotional, angry responses that
aggressively question USG intentions in Iraq and the world in
general. Media commentators are thrashing the USG and
President Bush, with one popular mainstream writer comparing
the President to Hitler (septel). Jordanians are stocking up
on foodstuffs and gasoline, but not in quantities that are
resulting in shortages.


2. (C) Even if military action in Iraq results in a good
outcome for Jordanians (and Iraqis),it is clear we have a
deep hole to dig out of if we intend to restore USG
credibility on the Jordanian street. END SUMMARY.

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THE ANGRY YOUTH OF JORDAN
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3. (C) On March 19, PolOff randomly engaged a group of
university students at a cafe in downtown Amman. The group
consisted of 5 middle/lower-middle class undergraduates.
After brief pleasantries, the students began to express their
opinions. As the students' emotions grew, PolOff's responses
to their questions were often waved off or interrupted. The
group basically sounded out three points on which they agree:
First, America has affronted the world (and confirmed its
intention to dominate the world) by ignoring and essentially
obliterating the authority of the UN Security Council.
Second, the USG, operating on selfish motives, is about to
invade a country which poses no realistic threat to it.
Third, the USG's support for Israel, in the face of
horrendous Arab/Palestinian suffering, leaves Arabs with no
reason to trust it, let alone support it in actions which
will likely lead to civilian casualties in Iraq. "My brother
is in the West Bank, the Israelis shot him in the knee last
year. I'm very angry, and I don't have a lot of anger left
to focus against Saddam. He's never done anything to hurt me
or my family," said one female student. Another asked why
the USG has "done nothing" to Israel after the death of AMCIT
peace activist Rachel Corrie. "Palestinians gave her more
respect than her own government did. That's horrible," she
said. Note: The group was careful to distinguish between
Americans and the USG, and even drew a distinction between
the USG and the President, whom they universally viewed as a
"warmonger."

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THE TWENTY SOMETHINGS
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4. (C) On March 19, PolOff met with a young, western-educated
public relations/internet technology professional in the same
cafe. She seemed optimistic about what the war would do for
Jordan and its economy, and characterized Saddam "as a
madman." But, she said, the result of the war, even if all
went well and Iraqis benefited, would leave the US with "zero
credibility" here. "You have a long road to go to get to
where people here will believe the President over even a
random conspiracy theory on the internet." In the past week,
even well-educated young adults have dissembled into
conspiracy theories on various reasons for the war, ranging
from a USG desire to destroy the Euro currency to an
irrational need for President Bush to avenge his father's
"failures". It is nearly impossible to convince people that
USG intentions are in the interests of the Iraqi people.

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RESIGNED TO BOYCOTT - FOR NOW
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5. (C) Despite the emotional anger against USG policy, most
people here appear resigned that "America is going to do what
it wants to do." Most do not expect the street to "erupt,"
although there are again calls for boycott, with several
Jordanians telling PolOff they have been receiving, and
forwarding, "numerous" SMS requests to boycott US goods.
EconOff received one such message from an unknown source
calling on "everyone" to begin worldwide boycotts against
American products as soon as the "U.S. invasion begins."
Note: while our American Chamber of Commerce contacts and
others in the business community expect to see local calls
for boycotts of American or "Zionist" products to continue,
we see no hard evidence of such campaigns materializing as of
yet.

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NO SHORTAGES ON ESSENTIALS
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6. (C) Thus far, people are calmly preparing for possible
interruption of their daily lives. "We've been through this
before, this is the second gulf war," one Amman resident
said. There appears to be an almost macho, defiant attitude
against stocking up in some circles. Most people, however,
are purchasing essentials to get them through a period of
uncertainty.


7. (C) Business community contacts in Zarqa (Jordan's second
largest city, about 20 miles northeast of Amman) confirm that
purchases of foodstuffs have increased in the past few days,
but note that current stocks and production capacities are
easily sufficient to accommodate increased consumption
levels. They note that this increased consumption closely
followed Trade Minister Bashir's recent announcement that
food stocks were plentiful and Jordanians should not start
hoarding. Remon Altalteh, owner of one of Zarqa's major
flour mills, confirmed orders have risen, but noted that
grain stocks are high and his mill is only doing half the
business it could handle. Gasoline stations continue to do
normal business, with no evidence of queuing or hoarding of
fuel.

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COMMENT
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8. (C) Jordanians are largely resigned to a likely war.
Scratch beneath the surface, however, and resignation turns
to serious anger and frustration towards the USG,
particularly in the younger crowd. At the moment, the USG
has practically zero credibility with the young set, and its
credibility within the business community and some political
circles hinges on the social/political outcome of the war and
demonstrated progress (instead of "empty promises") on the
roadmap. While positive results for the Iraqi and Jordanian
people will help restore some belief that the USG does harbor
good intentions, we expect skepticism and anger toward USG
policy to remain. This skepticism may limit public GOJ
support for USG objectives, as they try to balance support
for us with sensitivity toward the highly charged emotions of
its people.
GNEHM