GOJ WELCOMES POTUS STATEMENT ON ROADMAP BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 001580

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2013
TAGS: PREL IZ JO
SUBJECT: GOJ WELCOMES POTUS STATEMENT ON ROADMAP BUT
COMMENTATORS REMAIN SKEPTICAL; PM CALLS FOR NATIONAL UNITY


Classified By: Ambassador Edward W. Gnehm. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) In what most here see as the final days before the
beginning of a U.S.-led war against Iraq, senior GOJ
officials have issued a series of public statements welcoming
the President's March 14 Statement on the Roadmap and calling
for national unity in the face of imminent challenges. At
the same time, the government allowed peaceful anti-war
demonstrations to take place March 15 in Amman and Irbid
(septel). Comments by Embassy contacts and in the local
press make clear that -- the President's statement
notwithstanding -- most Jordanians remain deeply skeptical
about U.S. motives and plans for the region. End Summary.

--------------
GOJ Welcomes President's Roadmap Endorsement
--------------


2. (U) Soon after the President's March 14 Rose Garden
presentation, King Abdullah and FM Marwan Muasher quickly
issued public statements welcoming the news that Washington
would publicize the Roadmap soon after the naming of a
Palestinian PM. FM Muasher told the official Petra News
Service March 14 that "Jordan has constantly called for the
need to declare a roadmap and start work immediately on its
execution without any modifications," while the King on March
15 said "the announcement . . . gives strong momentum to the
efforts that aim at easing tension and violence in
Palestinian territories."

--------------
Emphasis on National Unity
--------------


3. (U) These official comments came a day after statements PM
Ali Abul Ragheb had made stressing the need for Jordan to
maintain national cohesion and unity, given the regional
uncertainties of the moment. In a March 13 meeting with the
Secretaries General of Jordan's 30 registered political

SIPDIS
parties, Abul Ragheb stated that "the homeland's security and
stability is a collective responsibility" and called on the
parties to "carry out their role in making citizens aware of
the need to behave responsibly." According to press reports
of the gathering, the PM told the assembled party heads that
"Jordan, through its conscious (sic) leadership and the
joined forces of its institutions and citizens, is able to
surpass the difficult circumstances imposed by the regional
situation."

--------------
Peaceful Anti-War Marches
--------------


4. (C) Notwithstanding these statements expressing hope for
forward movement on the MEPP and confidence in the Kingdom's
inner strength, the GOJ has also recognized the need to allow
Jordanians to express their opposition to a possible Iraq war
as a means of managing current internal pressures. On March
15, the GOJ allowed large, peaceful demonstrations to be held
in Amman and Irbid, the country's third largest city (details
septel). While the gatherings (each numbering in the several
thousand) were peaceful, the rhetoric was (according to press
reports and Embassy security contacts) sharp and
anti-American in tone.

-------------- --------------
Few Minds Changed Regarding U.S. Plans and Motives
-------------- --------------


5. (C) An initial check of Embassy contacts and the local
press indicate that the President's 3/14 statement has thus
far done little to alter the Jordanian public's deep
skepticism about U.S. policy vis-a-vis Iraq or the MEPP. A
common sentiment is that the President's statement is nothing
more than a momentary attempt to divert Arab opposition from
an Iraq war. One contact told POLFSN "the Roadmap is an
obvious cover by Bush to look good while he plans to strike
Iraq." Another noted "Bush's words and promises mean
nothing," while former Parliamentarian Mahmoud Kharabsheh
(East Banker) told POLOFF "nobody believes this means
anything."


6. (C) While the Arabic dailies led with President Bush's
announcement and the King's welcoming of it as their lead
stories, their commentary was deeply skeptical. A cartoon in
the influential Ad-Dustour showed President Bush in military
garb marching to war while tossing "The Palestinian
tranquilizer" pill over his shoulder into the mouth of an
ecstatic Arab. Prominent columnist Tariq Masarweh predicts
in the semi-official daily al-Rai that the announcement
"would do nothing to assuage popular anger or U.S. double
standards, and the promised Palestinian state, should it ever
materialize despite 'impossible preconditions,' would lack
borders, people, a capital and contiguous territory."


7. (C) The government-affiliated English-language Jordan
Times took a somewhat more positive tone and characterized
the President's statement as "long overdue, but nonetheless
welcomed." It went on to note, however, that if the
President "is serious about solving the conflict, he should
be evenhanded. Before asking the Palestinians for a prime
minister with 'real authority,' he should ask Israel for a
real commitment to peace." Longtime establishment columnist
Musa Keilani summed up the general skepticism by noting "If
we are misreading the situation, then let Washington correct
it right now by setting a deadline for Israel to publicly
undertake to abide by UN Security Council resolutions and
then implement that undertaking. Anything short of that
would be meaningless and sheer deception."

--------------
Comment
--------------


8. (C) The King has long expressed the concern that
simultaneous conflicts in Iraq and the West Bank could create
significant problems for Jordan. The GOJ has been pressing
for public release and presidential endorsement of the
Roadmap, and will be pleased by the President's remarks.
Nonetheless, most Jordanians will view this move as a way to
distract world attention from Iraq, and will be convinced of
our sincerity only when they see concrete progress toward a
Palestinian state.
GNEHM