NIGERIA: BUHARI'S MOVEMENTS NOT RESTRICTED;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000872

SIPDIS


NSC FOR J. FRASER
CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT
LONDON FOR GURNEY


E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: BUHARI'S MOVEMENTS NOT RESTRICTED;
BUT CAMPAIGN RALLIES WERE CANCELLED


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reasons:
1.5 (B & D).



1. (C) SUMMARY: On April 30, there was confusion
whether ANPP Presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari
had been restricted to his house in Daura, Katsina
State. Buhari's supporters asserted that he had been
placed under de facto house arrest. GON officials
disavowed the claim, stating that Buhari had only been
stopped from holding political rallies because his
party had refused to get the required permits. ANPP
members claim they had the necessary permits.
Definitely, Buhari was not placed under arrest.
However, the rumors of his arrest and the cancellation
of the political rallies only add to the political
tension, particularly in northern Nigeria. END
SUMMARY.



2. (SBU) The BBC Hausa radio service reported early
on April 29 that ANPP Presidential candidate Muhammadu
Buhari had been restricted to his residence. The
Katsina State Police Commissioner reportedly told the
Katsina ANPP Chairman that Buhari was restricted to
his house "on orders." In an afternoon broadcast, the
Press Officer for the Katsina State Police Command
told the BBC that the restriction was not on Buhari
but on political activity. "All political rallies in
Katsina State have been cancelled due to security
reasons," he said on the air.



3. (C) According to a contact in the Buhari campaign
press office, Buhari was told "not to leave his house
on orders from the Presidency." This contact said
that Buhari had scheduled a full slate of rallies for
that week to encourage ANPP supporters not to boycott
the May 3 State Assembly elections. "If we prevail at
the tribunals, we want State Assemblies supportive of
our winning candidates," he said. (COMMENT: This
comment cannot be taken at face value. A Buhari
campaign official would want to make Obasanjo look the
part of the undemocratic heavy. Making people believe
that Obasanjo ordered Buhari's house arrest would be a
fine way of accomplishing this feat. END COMMENT.)



4. (C) A flag officer at the Ministry of Defense
told Poloff that President Obasanjo had ordered the
military to arrest Buhari. According to the source,
Obasanjo had been encouraged by "hawks" within the
Presidency, who told him, "no one reacted when Abacha
had you arrested." The source said that Director of
Military Intelligence Maj. Gen. Williams Ajibade sent
a memo to the Chief of Army Staff advising him that
the military should remain neutral, describing the
dispute as "political" and an "issue for the police."
After the COAS showed the memo to Obasanjo, Ajibade
was immediately reassigned to the National Institute
for Policy and Strategic Studies. Source claimed
that Obasanjo had "rethought" Buhari's arrest and now
realized that the move would have been counter-
productive. This same account was repeated to Poloff
by a mid-level member of the President's staff and,
subsequently, by a retired military officer.



5. (U) Buhari had been scheduled to hold rallies in
Funtua (Katsina State) on April 28 and Zaria (Kaduna
State) and Katsina Ala (Benue State) on April 29. He
had reportedly scheduled other rallies on April 30.
The ANPP claims that all rallies were scheduled in
advance and that the police had issued appropriate
permits.



6. (C) Contacts in the Funtua LGA told Emboffs that
ANPP party leaders in Funtua had been arrested on
April 28 and Buhari was advised not to travel as
"there would be no rally." According to an Emirate
source, ANPP leaders in Zaria were informed by
security services that the scheduled April 29 rally
would not be allowed to take place and Buhari would
not be able to visit Zaria.



7. (C) The rendition of events given by the GON was
starkly different from what ANPP members told us.
Director General of State Security Service Kayode Are
told the Ambassador that Buhari was never restricted
to his house and that his freedom of movement had not
been abridged. However, the police stopped the ANPP
from conducting a political rally because the party
had not applied for the required permit. Are said
that the permit would be granted if the party applied.
He added further that ANPP supporters were being
purposefully confrontational by attempting to stage
the rally without a permit. ANPP stalwarts were hoping
to provoke a response from the police that would
escalate political tension, Are asserted. However,
the police had been cautioned to exercise restraint.



8. (C) In a meeting with DCM, ANPP National Chairman
Don Etiebet also contradicted earlier statements made
by his party members. Confirming Are's statement,
Etiebet summarily dismissed the claim that Buhari had
been restricted to his house.



9. (C) While observing the May 3 elections in
Katsina State May 3, Poloff drove past Buhari's Daura
residence. About 20 policemen and 10-15 military
personnel were in front of the residence, but the
gates were open and people appeared to be coming and
going freely. According to the ANPP chairman in
Katsina, Buhari had visited Funtua and Katsina just
prior to elections, but no rallies were held.
(Comment: As an ex-Head of State, Buhari has a
security detail, which was probably beefed up when he
entered the race for the Presidency. Moreover,
Katsina was one of the Northern States where the GON
expected trouble. End Comment).



10. (C) COMMENT: One event, two vastly different
versions of what happened. In a nutshell, Buhari was
not restricted to his residence but political rallies
were cancelled. We seriously doubt that the
government would be foolish enough to arrest Buhari.
In the end, this episode was a tempest in a teapot;
however, some ANPP members sought to make it a storm.
Nevertheless, the police were being formalistic and
probably did not act with much aplomb when canceling
the campaign rallies. While this incident eventually
fizzled out, anxiety remains high and we expect more
such rumors and intense moments, before the May 29
Presidential inauguration.
JETER