NIGERIA - SSS DIRECTOR ON THE ELECTION AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000817 SIPDIS CAIRO FOR POL - J. MAXSTADT DECL: 05/03/2013 TAGS: PREL PGOV EPET PINS MOPS NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA - SSS DIRECTOR ON THE ELECTION AND THE SITUATION IN WARRI Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter; Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) During an April 30 meeting with Ambassador Jeter, the Director General of the State Security Service (SSS) Kayode Are said that all political parties had committed electoral fraud. He also asserted that the outcome of the Presidential contest was a genuine reflection of the actual vote, albeit the margin of victory may have been inflated. However, Are acknowledged that the results of some gubernatorial and National Assembly contests were egregious. Overall, Are thought the elections were adequate under current circumstances but stated that Nigeria will have to experience several iterations before nailing down the process of conducting elections properly. ¶2. (C) Are stated that a political party manipulated the results in areas where it was in control. While most of the outcry was against the PDP for alleged fraud, Are claimed receiving credible reports of significant electoral manipulation by the ANPP in several Northern states. He acknowledged misconduct in the South-South had been too brazen; voter turnouts were too astronomical to believe. However, that was nothing new in the riverine areas. In every previous election, the South-South has always produced grossly exaggerated figures. In actuality, most communities in that area did not hold elections. Community leaders would simply assembly and decide how to allocate the community's votes. ¶3. (C) Turning his attention to press reports of the house arrest of ANPP Presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari, Are said the reports were false. At no time was Buhari's freedom of movement abridged. Instead, the police stopped the ANPP from holding political rallies in Katsina State because the party had not applied for the required permits. Are commented that the ANPP was trying to provoke an encounter with the police by holding a rally without a permit. However, the police had been instructed not use force to quash the rally. Are conjectured that the report of Buhari's house arrest was of the same family of inaccuracies - an intentional fabrication meant to incite anger and perhaps violence. -------------- THE CLOCK IS TICKING ON WARRI -------------- ¶4. (C) Are said that the use of military force against Ijaw militants in Warri was more a question of "when" not "if." His advice had been to commence action prior to the May 29 inauguration but some political advisors of the President were counseling to wait after the inauguration. Are also mentioned that the GON had felt hamstrung in dealing with the crisis due to the Ambassador's recent advice to the President not to repeat in Warria what had happened in Odi and Benue. However, at the end of the day, the GON realized that it had to act or else relinquish control of that strategic area around Warri to the reckless Ijaw militants. JETER